SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
July 6 Ganchalysis
Milwaukee/Washington under (9 -120): This one is a bit risky because Mike Bacsik of course is no ace on the mound, and Dave Bush is very volatile, at times very effective, and at other times awful. But neither team is hitting particularly well right now, and as things slog towards the break, it will probably take an extra effort or two for this game to reach double digits in scoring.
Only Detroit has been able to come into RFK this year and not miss a beat offensively. Milwaukee has a strong lineup, and they have hit lefties particularly well. But their offense is not likely to be so dominant that it won't be negatively affected by coming to RFK, and now Bill Hall is out, which doesn't help.
Washington of course has a weakish lineup, and could get shut down by Bush. The runs should trickle in as the innings go by, but there probably won't be any explosions of runs. If Bush is on, Washington will not likely score more than 2.
All in all, I think there is value with the under 9 here. The egde is not huge, but it comes with a relatively high degree of confidence IMO.
Cincinnati RL (+165): Micah Owings has not adjusted too well to the majors on a week-in week-out basis. He has been good at times, but he has been very inconsistent.
Coming into Cincinnati will not make things any easier for him, and if he is off again, Cincinnati's power hitters will be primed to take advantage. If Owings is on, which he may be, Arizona will have a good chance of winning. But if he is off, Cincinnati will likely open the game up and win by more than one.
On the other side, Kyle Lohse is a bit of a mystery. He has a high degree of volatility, sometimes getting hit badly, other times going deep into games and giving up close to no runs. It is generally thought that he has "good stuff", so his inconsistency could be due to a number of things. But his good and bad starts tend to come in clusters, and he may have another good start at home as he did last time out. Strangely, he has done much better at his hitter-friendly home park than he has done on the road.
So there are a lot of questions surrounding Lohse, and a few surrounding Owings as well. But Cincinnati has some legitimate power bats, and if they go on to win this one, which is entirely possible, it will likely be by more than one.
White Sox Gm 2 ML (-110): Minnesota exploded offensively in game 1 of this doubleheader, but the Sox should be able to avenge the loss in game 2.
Gavin Floyd has pitched a bit better than Matt Garza in the minors this year, as he has added a slider that seems to have been effective, while Garza is still mainly a fastball pitcher.
It's not clear what the lineups will be in game 2, as it never is, but probably the sitting players will hurt Minnesota more than the White Sox.
Sometimes a rout in game 1 gives the winning team an edge in game 2, but in this case I think it gives the Sox an edge.
Colorado RL (+120): Philadelphia might be overmatched in this game. Colorado starter Jeff Francis has been very sharp closing out the first half, and while he'll probably be more vulnerable here than in most of his recent starts, he likely won't be near as vulnerable as Kyle Kendrick will likely be. Kendrick has pitched ok this year, both in the majors and minors, but he is battling a minor injury right now, and his lack of strikeouts are likely to hurt him at Coors as well.
If Francis is as good as he has been in most of his starts over the past 2 months, the Colorado RL is of course likely to win. If he's not, Colorado should still have a reasonable chance of winning it, either by pounding Kendrick or hitting Philadelphia's bullpen, which at times can implode.
Add it all up, and I think the RL has modest but solid value.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by BatemanPatrickl
