Originally Posted by
Ganchrow HG
San Francisco/Reds over (9 -130): Matt Cain obviously has shutout potential every game, but he also has gotten hit a bit at times this year, and he may well get taken deep by the Reds' power hitters if he makes a few mistakes to them.
But even if Cain throws a shutout, the over is not a lost cause. Reds' starter Matt Belisle is hittable, and San Francisco is very aware of their lack of run support for Cain. Even if Cain throws a shutout, SF might reward him with double digits in run support, as they did with Lincecum a few days ago.
To top it off, if the game is close to 9 at the end, and both starters leave, both teams have vulnerable bullpens that could easily give up a few extra runs.
Barry Bonds may not play this one, as it's a day game after a night game, but he may play it anyway, as he has done at times this year. If Bonds is sitting, that will hurt the over's chances a bit, but it should still be a decent play IMO.
Minnesota ML (-115): Johan Santana has gotten hit a bit once in a while this year, and he has been perhaps a tick less dominant than he has been in years past, but he has still been very good. A 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 120 Ks in 114 IP is not to shabby, and as usual he seems to be improving as the season wears on.
He often gets up for big games, which is why he has always done so well at home, and he has been lights out in his 2 career starts at Yankee Stadium. This is the kind of game he is likely to get pumped for, against the Yankees, after Minnesota has lost 3 in a row and is off of a shutout by the Yankees' ace.
On the other side, Mike Mussina has been effective in general, but nothing special, and the solid Minnesota lineup should be able to get to him for a few runs. If they do, that might be all they'll need, if Santana and the capable Minnesota pen hold the Yankees down.
The line is lower than it should be IMO. If this were the Santana of old, which he is not too far away from, and the home team had a different name on their shirts, I suspect this line would be significantly higher.
St. Louis ML (-130): Livan Hernandez is a workhorse who eats up innings, but rarely blows anyone away. The St. Louis lineup has been perking up a bit of late, and Hernandez, who has struggled in many of his starts this year, may get hit a fair amount here.
St. Louis' table-setters and their power hitters are both starting to be more productive, and they should be able to get on the board a decent amount in this game.
On the other side, St. Louis starter Brad Thompson has pitched reasonably well in many of his starts this year, and the Arizona lineup shouldn't present an unusual challenge. They have some decent bats in the top half of their lineup, but their bottom half is usually pretty weak, and Thompson is likely to have a solid start. St. Louis also has a bullpen that has able to hold late leads this year.
Overall, I see St. Louis as having a solid advantage in this game, greater than what the line says they have. The edge here IMO is not huge but comes with a high degree of confidence.
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July 4 Ganchalysis
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