[Razz]

Cubs/Nationals Under 9 (Hill/Chico)
Chico has been good in 7 of his last 8 home starts, with the lone exception of allowing 8 runs in 4 IP to Detroit, the best offense in baseball against LHP. The Cubs are the opposite, as they score the fewest rpg against LHSP, 3.6. They are even worse, at 3.0 rpg, on the road against LHP.
The Nationals aren’t a whole lot better, at 3.9 rpg against LHSP, and they face a really tough lefty in Hill, who has been fantastic on the road. He sports a 2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .190 BAA in his road starts this season, and he should continue to have success in this pitcher’s park.

Giants -110 (Cain/Belisle)
Matt Cain continues to be dominant and not be rewarded for it, but I have to take him here against the hapless Reds. I think all you need to know about this game is that Cain is 2-9 and Belisle is 5-5, and Cain is a road favorite. Methinks the odds makers know there is more to it than W/L records. Cain has better numbers than some of the pitchers who will be in his home park for the All-Star game this weekend, but his W/L record is bad because of no run support and the bullpen’s tendency to blow games for him. He was dominant in his lone career start against Cincy (7 IP, 4 hits, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 runs), and he should have another good outing tomorrow.
Belisle is another one of the Reds’ pitchers who struggle at home. Actually, he’s not that good anywhere, but he’s 1-4 with a 5.51/1.50/.306 at the GAB. Talent wise, there is no comparison between the pitchers, the Reds are in disarray, and facing Cain isn‘t the answer for that..

Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 (Vargas/Snelly)
Ian Snell has started three times against the Brewers in his career, winning all three with a 3.86 ERA/1.10 WHIP/.211 BAA in those games. He’s 5-2 with a 2.26/1.13/.235 at home this year, and the Brewers haven’t been nearly as effective against RHP as they have against lefties.
Vargas has been very effective this year, and he has owned the Pirates in the past, including 7 shutout innings earlier this year. He’s 4-0 with a 1.54/0.98/.201 against them, and he’s actually been better on the road this year. Pittsburgh scores only 4.1 rpg against RHSP, and this should be a low scoring game.

Blue Jays +117 (D-Mac/JK)
Joe Kennedy continues to live dangerously, and it’s finally starting to catch up to him. He has walked more batters than he has struck out this season, his WHIP is nearly 1.50, and his ERA has climbed from 2.70 to 3.91 in the past month. It should keep climbing here, as he faces a Blue Jays team that has destroyed LHP the past couple seasons, as they proved once again in the opener of this series.
I really like Dustin McGowan, who is a prime case of being better than the numbers show. His last start he gave up two runs on two infield singles, another run he walked in, so it looked like an awful outing. But, after giving up five runs in the first couple innings, he settled down and was very good. Maybe it was a hangover from the 1-hitter he had thrown previously, maybe not. Either way, I expect him to have a lot of success in this ballpark against a team that hasn’t been hitting RHP very well all season. With the Jays having IMO the better starter, bullpen, and lineup, this is an easy call.

[BatemanPatrickl]

What do you think about the REDS/GIANTS game tonight?

[Razz]

Lean Giants, hard to say really. Harang is much better away from home, and I was going to consider the Giants, but I was expecting +120/+125, not +110.

[BatemanPatrickl]

Not so fast my friend. I put in on the Reds.

[bigboydan]

Going with Cain once again I see Razz. That guy is just so hard to bet on this year it's not funny, because they can't seem to give him any type of run support for nothing at all.

[Razz]

It's funny, there's days like Tuesday where I couldn't really pinpoint a side that I thought had value or a strong situational play, then there's Wednesday, when I have a strong opinion on almost every game on the board.

Yankees +113 (Moose/Santana)
Tigers -130 (Gambler/Westbrook)

On another day, I would think about adding Nationals, Pirates, Padres Under, Devil Rays, and Royals Under. I think all have at least a modicum of value, and some are interesting situational plays as well. Anyway, good luck tomorrow everyone, I'll be checking in tomorrow evening.

[bigboydan]

I gotta disagree with you on your Yankees play Razz. I'm really liking the Twins minus that small price.

[Razz]

Dan, I think the Yankees are the best play on the card today.

Also unloaded on Joey Chestnut to win the Hot Dog Eating Contest, actually have more on that than anything else today, but he should be -1000, so I think it's an exceptionally good bet.

[BatemanPatrickl]

I gotta disagree with you on your Yankees play Razz. I'm really liking the Twins minus that small price.

Agree on the TWINS.

[paul Mordeeb]

You know what your talking about. Does kennedy even know where home plate is?

[paul Mordeeb]

Well, he got that 2/3 innings in before they pulled him after that 4th walk!!!

[rjt721]

4-0 sweep. Nice work Razz.

[Checkerboard]

Sweet. Good solid holiday action!

[AC1318]

Cubs/Nationals Under 9 (Hill/Chico)
Chico has been good in 7 of his last 8 home starts, with the lone exception of allowing 8 runs in 4 IP to Detroit, the best offense in baseball against LHP. The Cubs are the opposite, as they score the fewest rpg against LHSP, 3.6. They are even worse, at 3.0 rpg, on the road against LHP.
The Nationals aren’t a whole lot better, at 3.9 rpg against LHSP, and they face a really tough lefty in Hill, who has been fantastic on the road. He sports a 2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and .190 BAA in his road starts this season, and he should continue to have success in this pitcher’s park.

Giants -110 (Cain/Belisle)
Matt Cain continues to be dominant and not be rewarded for it, but I have to take him here against the hapless Reds. I think all you need to know about this game is that Cain is 2-9 and Belisle is 5-5, and Cain is a road favorite. Methinks the odds makers know there is more to it than W/L records. Cain has better numbers than some of the pitchers who will be in his home park for the All-Star game this weekend, but his W/L record is bad because of no run support and the bullpen’s tendency to blow games for him. He was dominant in his lone career start against Cincy (7 IP, 4 hits, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 runs), and he should have another good outing tomorrow.
Belisle is another one of the Reds’ pitchers who struggle at home. Actually, he’s not that good anywhere, but he’s 1-4 with a 5.51/1.50/.306 at the GAB. Talent wise, there is no comparison between the pitchers, the Reds are in disarray, and facing Cain isn‘t the answer for that..

Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 (Vargas/Snelly)
Ian Snell has started three times against the Brewers in his career, winning all three with a 3.86 ERA/1.10 WHIP/.211 BAA in those games. He’s 5-2 with a 2.26/1.13/.235 at home this year, and the Brewers haven’t been nearly as effective against RHP as they have against lefties.
Vargas has been very effective this year, and he has owned the Pirates in the past, including 7 shutout innings earlier this year. He’s 4-0 with a 1.54/0.98/.201 against them, and he’s actually been better on the road this year. Pittsburgh scores only 4.1 rpg against RHSP, and this should be a low scoring game.

Blue Jays +117 (D-Mac/JK)
Joe Kennedy continues to live dangerously, and it’s finally starting to catch up to him. He has walked more batters than he has struck out this season, his WHIP is nearly 1.50, and his ERA has climbed from 2.70 to 3.91 in the past month. It should keep climbing here, as he faces a Blue Jays team that has destroyed LHP the past couple seasons, as they proved once again in the opener of this series.
I really like Dustin McGowan, who is a prime case of being better than the numbers show. His last start he gave up two runs on two infield singles, another run he walked in, so it looked like an awful outing. But, after giving up five runs in the first couple innings, he settled down and was very good. Maybe it was a hangover from the 1-hitter he had thrown previously, maybe not. Either way, I expect him to have a lot of success in this ballpark against a team that hasn’t been hitting RHP very well all season. With the Jays having IMO the better starter, bullpen, and lineup, this is an easy call.

nice picking RAZZ

[Razz]

Thanks guys, got a little fortunate with the Pirates under, but everything else was pretty much as it seemed. Ironic that Cain finally gets a win in his worst outing in over a month.