Boston ML (-190): Tampa Bay is limping towards the All-Star Break, and bad teams on losing streaks on the road before the break are often good "play againsts" in most games until the break. They've lost 8 in a row, and they don't have the kind of fight to pull out games where they are overmatched. Unless Dice K and Boston give this one away, TB will be hard-pressed to get a lead and hold it.
Even if Dice K does get hit, Boston will still be capable of storming back against the TB pen, as we've seen them do quite a bit over the years. And even if Kazmir is in top form and manages to go deep in his start, Dice K could easily match him, and the Sox will still have the edge in the later innings when the bullpens get involved.
Add it all up, and Boston has a modest but solid edge here IMO, even as a huge favorite.
Cubs ML (-175): This game is likely to resemble the easy win the Cubs enjoyed yesterday over Washington. The Nationals at times have been good bets as big underdogs both at home and on the road in the first half of the season, and they are likely to be in the second half as well. But this game is not one of them, IMO.
Both the Cubs' offense and Carlos Zambrano are rounding to form at this point in the season, after having slumped badly at mant points early on. They are now playing well, and with a sense of urgency, making up for lost time.
Zambrano is returning to his past dominant form, giving up 1 or 2 runs while going deep into games, often 8 innings. Facing the sub-par Nationals' lineup here at RFK figures to be an easier assignment than most for him, and he is likely to have another strong game.
The Cubs are sending out a very solid lineup these days, with a bunch of big bats hitting close to their potential, and a slew of lesser bats proving productive support.
Nationals' starter Tim Redding may be ok, but is nothing too special, and it would be a surprise if he had a start even close to Zambrano.
All in all, the Cubs probably have decent value even as huge road favorites here.
Reds ML (-120): At first glance this might seem like a relatively even game, and an appropriate line, with 2 upper-tier starting pitchers, 2 sub-par bullpens, and two decent but unspectacular lineups involved. However, looking a bit deeper into things, I feel there is modest but solid value with the Reds as a small home favorite.
To start, the Reds have a lefty-laden lineup, and they have hit a bit worse against lefties this year, so you might think that quality lefty Barry Zito would have an extra advantage against them. But in fact, Zito can often be "counted" as a righty, since he is more effective against righties than lefties, and his stats read as such. This year, for instance, Zito has a BAA of .312 and a WHIP of 1.65 against lefties, as opposed to .225 and 1.29 against righties. This has been the case over his whole career, as his career numbers in those areas are .255 and 1.47 against lefties, and .227 and 1.21 against righties. So the normal weakness that usually can be factored in against the Reds when they face lefties can probably be tossed out here, and may even be turned into an advantage.
The Reds' big weakness, their bullpen, will not hurt them as much in this game, as Harang may be able to go deep into this game, and SF's pen is of a similar lowly stature. SF has been a losing team for a while now, and while they can slug around once in a while for a win here and there, they tend to wilt in competitive games, especially on the road, which this one may well be.
Taking their weak bullpen into a hitters' park, and their losing ways on the road, does not bode well for SF here. I think Cincinnati should probably be a significantly bigger favorite in this game.
Minnesota/Yankees under (9.5 -115): The Yankees have had an overrated offense all year long, and now their leading hitter Alex Rodriguez has hurt his hamstring, and will probably sit this game out.
And of course, Chien-Ming Wang has shut-down ability for the Yankees. He has always done well at home, and he is due for a strong start here against a Minnesota lineup that can be strong against weak pitching, but also tends to disappear against better pitching. An 8-inning, 1-run outing by Wang would not be a surprise at all.
On the other side, Carlos Silva of course is a very volatile starter. He can have shut-down starts himself, or he can get hit hard. But with the Yankees missing Rodriguez, he probably will be able to get through without too much damage even if he is getting hit.
If Wang is on his top game, the under could easily win even if Silva gets hit hard. If Silva is getting outs, however, it will take some extra pushes and breaks for the game to reach 10. Considering everything, the under 9.5 probably has decent value in this game.
Angels/Texas over (10.5 -105): This game involves 2 starting pitchers getting knocked around this year, and 2 offenses that have been hitting capably of late, in the bandbox that is Ameriquest stadium.
The Angels have a productive offense this year, and they have hit well even at their home park, which is generally unfriendly to hitters. When they venture out to hitter-friendly parks, they often get a boost. Earlier this year they played a 4-game series at Ameriquest, and scored at least 6 runs in every game.
Texas starter Kevin Millwood does not look promising to hold the Angels down. He is getting hit every time he starts, and he has never pitched well at Ameriquest in his career, even when he was pitching well overall.
On the other side, Angels' starter Ervin Santana is perfectly ill-suited to pitch at Ameriquest. He thrives in the spacious environs at Angel Stadium, and is hurt when he goes on the road; Ameriquest probably hurts him the most out of all the parks in the majors. Santana has made 5 starts at Ameriquest, and gone 26 innings total. He has given up 9 home runs in those 26 innings, as would be expected, resulting in 26 earned runs. He is likely to have similar problems here tonight.
Add it all up, and it should be a challenge for the pitchers to keep things under 10.5 in this game.
Toronto/Oakland under (9 -120): It's not entirely clear what's going on with the totals at McAfee. It has traditionally been a place where it's tough to score runs, and it was a strong under park all year long. Then there was an inexplicably high-scoring series with modest-hitting St. Louis, then a back-to-normal series with Cincinnati, and then a high-scoring game yesterday. But assuming the high-scoring games were just statistical variance, this game should have value at under 9.
Oakland starter Joe Blanton pitches very effectively at home (.181 BAA, 1.80 ERA, 0.82 WHIP at home this year) and Toronto's lineup is nothing special, and is particularly average against righties.
On the other side, Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is making his return to the majors after having pitched well recently in the minors. Litsch has had success at the major-league level, and he may be more settled down this time up. Additionally, his contact-style of pitching is well-suited for McAfee and the patient Oakland lineup.
Unless this game sees an offensive explosion like we have seen at times recently at McAfee, it should have a good shot at staying under.
I'm really liking your Reds play today Mr.HG. Usually when we see a team fire it's manager during the middle of the season like the Reds did the other day. That team usually seems to put a little mini winning streak together. Now add Harang into the mix and you really gotta like your chances with the Reds minus the small price tag.
Not the greatest thing to see Hirschbeck umping and Sosa out in the Texas game. But the Angels can hit. They may have to get most of the 11 by themselves, and half of that may have to come from Guerrero. If Millwood is serving up meatballs, they could do it. If not, that won't be good for the over.
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July 3 Ganchalysis: Early Plays
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