Had a busy day Sunday, so didn't get around to posting. It was a 1-1 day for 0.00 units anyway (Yankees Over, Orioles), so no harm done. Almost had a really nice day Saturday, but Grady Little ... anyway, here's what I'm going with Monday. Nothing particularly strong, all 1-unit plays.
Nationals +145 & Over 8.5 (Simontacchi/Lilly)
Tried to bet on Simontacchi the other day against the Pirates, but he was scratched. It always worries me when a pitcher has a start moved back, but I'm going to take a shot with him here against the Cubs anyway. With the way Ted Lilly is pitching, the price is a bit much here. Only one of Lilly's last seven starts was a quality start, though one game he was ejected in the first inning. After eight starts, his ERA was 2.53 and he had given up only three HRs. In 7 starts (and the 0.2 IP game) since then, he has given up 10 HRs, and his ERA has increased 1.5 points.
The reason I like taking a nice pricetag with Simontacchi is that he has been very hit or miss this year. His last seven starts, he's made three very good starts (3 Ws, giving up 1 run in all three), one atrocious start (10 runs in 3 innings), two bad starts, and only one average start. Whatever he brings here, I think the chances of losing both plays is minimal.
Dodgers Under 7.5 (Lowe/Smoltz)
I bet the Braves had a fun plane ride tonight, after losing an extra-inning game in Florida, which included a 97-minute rain delay, and looking forward to facing a pitcher who dominated them at Turner Field this year. Lowe went 7, giving up 3 hits, no ER, and striking out 8. He's been good at home all year (2.34 ERA), but exceptionally good his last three starts (two against good AL offenses), in which he has gone 22 IP, and given up 3 total runs.
Smoltz is Smoltz is Smoltz, and that means consistency. His career road numbers (3.25/1.18/.235) are almost exactly the same as his career home numbers (3.28/1.16/.236). In his lone start against the Dodgers this season, he went 7 IP and didn't allow a run. His career numbers against LA are of course strong. I just don't see either pitcher getting hit hard, both bullpens are good, hopefully this one is as straightforward as it appears.
Yankees -1.5 +115 (Clemens/Boof)
I don't think the Yankees can win a one-run game against the Twins. But I do think the Yankees can blow them out. I say this as a disheartened fan, but nonetheless, the incredible difference in the defense and fundamentals of these two teams leads me to believe that the Yankees, in their current vein, either win comfortably or find a way not to win. I believe the former is the more likely in this game, but I certainly can't blame anyone for playing the Twins ML.
Boof Bonser may be the tonic for the Yankees offense - he had no answer for the Yankees lineup in his lone career appearance against them - and many of the Twins hitters have looked helpless against Clemens in the past (particularly Hunter, 0-22 with 13 K). Clemens was very good last time out until the 6th, maybe he's coming on, either way I think the Yanks give him a lot of support.
Blue Jays +118 (Towers/Dinardo)
Handily beating the Yankees twice in New York with your best pitchers and then flying across the country and starting your worst pitcher isn't the recipe for beating a capable team like Toronto, who has a better lineup and bullpen than Oakland. Josh Towers is pitching, and while that normally is a very bad sign for the Blue Jays, he has always been a contact pitcher and most of his (albeit limited) success has come in big parks like this one. The Jays love LHP, the A's have struggled with RHP, that's plenty for me.
Royals +111 (Meche/Felix)
King Felix has been very average since his first couple starts:
First two starts: 17.0 IP, 2-0 record, 4 hits, 4 BB, 0 runs. Since then: 51.2 IP, 2-4 record, 80 hits, 17 BB, 34 runs (33 ER).
I think that after the emotional sendoff today, the Mariners could be in for a tough go of it tomorrow against former teammate Meche. Meche was very good against the M's at home, very bad (though I think nerves had a lot to do with that) in Seattle, and I expect him to be very good again this time around. Really tough situation for Seattle, going on the road to face a moribund team after a long home winning streak, losing your manager, facing a former teammate ... I just don't have them as the favorite to win this game.
The Marlins would have been my next game, just something about watching their celebration after the game today, then thinking about them flying out west and having a huge bullpen disadvantage if it's close ... I had to lay off. GL though, like I say it's IMO the best of the rest of the card.
I like the card Razz. I'm playing the ATL/LAD under and Royals as well. Also leaning strongly to the Nats. Disagree with your Yanks play, but I do agree with your reasoning in taking the RL. If they win, it will likely be a result of Bonser getting hit hard. No opinion at all on the Jays/A's game, as Towers and DiNardo might just be my two least favorite pitchers.
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