[Scrivero]

No games made it to my capping today. By the way, even though my capping failed yesterday, my bad capping skills still say that we need to cap those favs who have a good record. That is because the last 3 games before this one went easily to those teams.

6/19 record:
Over: 1-0
ML/RL: 1-0
6/19 total: +2.47 units

Overall records:

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record (20 games, not 40): ML: 12-8 RL: 10-10
BR: +7.22 units

Over record: Overs we played: 8-1-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 15-4-1).
BR: +5.54 units

Total BR: +12.96 units

[kingdom]

Dude you are rolling. don't change anything.

[Scrivero]

Dude you are rolling. don't change anything.

Yea I will definitely keep the Overs-capping as it is. I will though keep capping the actual fade-games so that I will try to "learn" in my capping. I will learn the wrong things though Im sure (so I keep capping wrong) but I think I have to try to keep learning. Thats how Ive lost before so thats what it has to be.

Sorry for capping today's game so late if anyone is tailing my fades and overs...

6/21:
- Cubs great at home, Padres really bad away. Cubs' overall record is ok, Padres' is very bad. Cubs are 6-4 in last 10, Padres are 4-6. A high scoring game to come so an easy Over. We cap the Cubs.
So we fade our Cubs pick and play the Padres: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 9.5, 1 unit.

This game was something that I wasnt sure about. Not that it wasnt a good one to cap, but because there were a couple similar games out there too. I chose to cap this one because I sometimes want to watch the games too and this one was just at the right time. I dont want to start playing 3 games per night either, I want to play the absolute best game if I can. Sorry again to those who tail my fades or Overs. Catch the bets live if you can/want. And dont worry, I will eventually miss the Over and also I quite often cap the games right (so our fade loses) so you are not missing money.

[Scrivero]

We missed the Over for once, it was about time! We hit the ML but missed the RL. It happens sometimes. Was a fun game to watch!

6/21 record:
Over: 0-1
ML/RL: 1-0/0-1
6/21 total: -0.59 units

Overall records:

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record (21 games, not 42): ML: 13-8 RL: 10-11
BR: +7.63 units

Over record: Overs we played: 8-2-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 15-5-1).
BR: +4.54 units

Total BR: +12.37 units

We have another game for tonight:
- Dodgers awesome at home, awesome overall. Mets plain bad at road, just a tad bad at road. Dodgers last 10 is 9-1, Mets last 10 is 4-6. A high scoring match to come, so its Over. We cap the Dodgers.So we fade our Dodgers pick and play the Mets: ML 0.5 units, -1.5 RL 0.5 units.
We play it Over 9.5, 1 unit.
Good night yall!

By the way, if we cap this game wrong again, thats 3 in a row. The capping me has to adjust then. The capping me might have to start to fade my fades then. We shall see.

[Scrivero]

Yes, we capped right! No wait, that means our fade lost..

We hit the Over again though.

We made a massive loss of 0.02 units

Exact stats later but lets admire the Over-record:
Over record: Overs we played: 9-2-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 16-5-1).

[Scrivero]

No games today. Will be back in action tomorrow.

[Scrivero]

This long weekend is so easy. One matchup where the other team is such a huge favorite that they will win all games of their series. So we will play all 4 games of the series. In a long series they seem to sometimes win by only one run though, so we will play only ML. Even 3/4 wins gives us a profit. 2/4 would give us only break even with RL. I see 3/4 ML happening more often than 2/4 RL.

6/23 to 6/26:

Phillies @ Dbacks
- Dbacks last 10 is 9-1 and Phillies are 2-8. Dbacks 26-9 at home and 46-27 overall record. Phillies 9-28 at road and 23-48 overall record. Very high scoring match/series to come so an easy Over. We cap the Dbacks to win very easily.

So we fade our Dbacks pick and play the Phillies: ML 1 unit.
We play it Over 10 (first game, others with whatever line it offers), 1 unit.

We might follow the results before the series ends or not. We are out of town.

Overall records:

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record (22 games, not 44): ML: 13-9 RL: 10-12
BR: +6.63 units

Over record: Overs we played: 9-2-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 15-5-1).
BR: +5.52 units

Total BR: +12.35 units

[Scrivero]

Fast update on mobile:

Series' stats:
Fades: 1-0, +1.83 units
Overs: 0-1, -1 unit
Series total, +0.83 units

Total BR: +13.18 units

The capper in me decided to stick with decisions so we will continue with the series no matter what. We might chase the losses (the capping "losses") in game 4. So tonight the same plays as yesterdays.

[Scrivero]

Another fast update on mobile:
- Our Over 9.5 won. Our fade lost.

Series' stats:
Fades: 1-1, +0.83 units
Overs: 1-1, -0.15 units
Series total: +0.68 units

Total BR: +13.03 units

We will continue with the same series tonight.

[Scrivero]

Capping too good. Over failed too. Then again, if the series' capping actually seems to work, then I can start supercapping these and fade the individual more random cappings.

Series' stats:
Fades: 1-2, -0.17 units
Overs: 1-2, -1.15 units
Series total: -1.32 units

Total BR: +11.71 units

[Scrivero]

lol the math is strong in this one Bit of a correction:

Series' stats:
Fades: 1-2, -0.17 units
Overs: 1-2, -1.15 units
Series total: -1.32 units

Total BR: +11.03 units

Today we have the same plays again: Phillies ML and O8.5. Last game of the series.

[Scrivero]

Alright, the capping (if we played our capping) went 3-1 ML for ca +0.5 units. RL would have been 2-2 for +-0 units. I dont think we would cap the whole series like this, hence we wouldnt fade a full series either.

What we learned is that our fade wins and Over wins have been quite lucky, as we have very randomly picked which game of the series we have played for which match. Luck always runs out, hence we have to try to figure out how to continue the fades so that wont just burn our BR slowly. We shall think about this.

Series' stats:
Fades: 1-3, -1.17 units
Overs: 1-3, -2.15 units
Series total: -3.32 units

Total BR: +9.03 units

[Scrivero]

Forwardtesting the results we've had so far to see which game of the (most often 3-game) series ended with WIN and LOSS (for our fades) and OVER and UNDER:

5/29: first game of the series: LOSS, UNDER
- second game would have been a LOSS, OVER
- third game would have been a WIN ML, UNDER
5/30: second game of the series: WIN RL, OVER
- first game of the series would have been a WIN ML, PUSH
- third game would have been a WIN, UNDER
5/31: third game of the series, LOSS, OVER
- second game would have been a LOSS, PUSH
- first game of the series would have been a LOSS, OVER
5/31: third game of the series, WIN RL, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
- first game: WIN RL, OVER
6/1: first game: WIN RL, OVER
- second game: WIN ML, UNDER
- third game: LOSS, UNDER
6/3: second game: WIN RL, OVER
- first game: LOSS, OVER
- third game: LOSS, OVER
6/4: third game: LOSS, UNDER
- first game: LOSS, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
6/6: first game: WIN RL, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, UNDER
- third game: WIN RL, OVER
6/7: third game: WIN ML, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
- first game: LOSS, UNDER
6/8: third game: LOSS, OVER
- first game: LOSS, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
6/11: third game: WIN RL, OVER
-first game: LOSS, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, UNDER
6/11: third game: WIN RL, OVER
- first game: LOSS, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
6/14: third game; WIN RL, OVER
- first game: WIN ML, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
6/15: first game: LOSS, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
- third game: LOSS, UNDER
6/17: second game: LOSS, OVER
- first game: LOSS, OVER
- third game: WIN RL, UNDER
6/19: first game: WIN RL, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
- third game: LOSS, OVER
6/21: third game: WIN ML, UNDER
- first game: LOSS, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, UNDER
6/21: third game: LOSS, OVER
- first game: LOSS, OVER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
6/23: first game: WIN ML, UNDER
- second game: LOSS, OVER
- third game: LOSS, UNDER

Im posting this now to see how it looks and gather the stats about that in the next post.

[Scrivero]

First game of the series:
ML: 7-12
RL: 4-15
O/U: 10-8-1

Second game of the series:
ML: 3-16
RL: 2-17
O/U: 14-4-1

Third game of the series:
ML: 10-9
RL:7-12
O/U: 11-8

All ML: 20-37
All RL: 13-44
All O/U: 35-20-2

Alright, so those are the stats IF we had played all the games of the series (until game 3) in our fade series. As we can see, we have been really really lucky to have been able to have a 14-12 record for ML for our actual fades and a 11-15 record for our RL. Our 10-5-1 record for Overs is pretty close to what it would have been, had we played all games of the series we fade as Overs.

So what do we do now? Well, first of all... WE HAVE TO STOP THE FADES lol as ridiculous as it sounds, when we look at those stats, its a pure miracle that we were able to actually make +5 units with our fades.

But what do we DO then? Well, its pretty obvious, isnt it? We start playing all Overs for our fades. So we will cap a full series from game 1 with our cap/fade style like we did with the previous Phillies-Dbacks series. Then we dont fade the cappings, we just play the whole series OVER for each game. And thats it.

We dont really have to start from the game 1 of the series either, as the stats above show. So we might start tonight if I still have time.

And even if the sample size above with the fades and overs is small.. to me it looks like we really would go broke very fast if we'd continue the fades. Please let me know if you disagree or if you see the stats different.

One option by the way would be to actually play our capping but the problem is that even if they seem to go e.g. 20-10 ML, the odds for the favs have been ca -200, so basically giving us +-0. Of course the dogs have had ca +170 but its still not enough to cover a 10-20 record. So that seems to be a losing strategy for sure, no matter if one plays the cappings or fades them.

[Scrivero]

By the way, I will stop posting the explanations for the cappings/fades-matchups, you know already how I do. I will just post the Overs, 1 unit each. I will post all matches that fit the criteria.

6/27: Overs for the capping/fade-matches:
- Oakland @ Houston, Over 9. 1 unit.
- Rockies @ Giants, Over 8.5. 1 unit.

Overall records:

Supercapping record: 1-1
BR: +0.2 units

Fade Record (26 games, not 52): ML: 14-12 RL: 11-15
BR: +5.46 units

Over record: Overs we played: 10-5-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 16-8-1).
BR: +3.37 units

Total BR: +9.03 units

[SAX27]

I am very confused!! Just WIN baby!!

[Scrivero]

I am very confused!! Just WIN baby!!

lol right on! Thanks man!

1-1 yesterday, -0.05 units.

[Scrivero]

To clarify: the long list of games/dates above means this:
- the first game after the date is the game we played and the games under each date are the other games of the series, just showing how those games would have gone had we played them.

[Scrivero]

6/28: Overs for the capping/fade-matches:
- Oakland @ Houston, Over 9.5. 1 unit.
- Rockies @ Giants, Over 8.5. 1 unit.

Over record: Overs we played: 11-6-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 17-9-1).(Record for all Overs of all games of the faded series: 35-20-2)
BR: +3.32 units

Total BR: +8.98 units

[kingdom]

this series idea isn't looking too hot. u were doing great with what you were doing. but you are determined to make changes always. i don't even know whats goin on with the series stuff. you had something that was working. i've said time and again if it ain't broke...., but.....

[Scrivero]

this series idea isn't looking too hot. u were doing great with what you were doing. but you are determined to make changes always. i don't even know whats goin on with the series stuff. you had something that was working. i've said time and again if it ain't broke...., but.....

I see where youre coming from for sure, but take a look at the stats in my post number 84 in this thread. The fade results for all games of those series where I was fading individual games was:
All ML: 20-37
All RL: 13-44
All O/U: 35-20-2

And at the same time I was 14-12 ML and 11-15 RL, while picking games randomly from those series. That is, no matter which day I would be on the computer, I could choose any game of the series, game 1, 2 or 3, as they would all fit my capping criteria. I somehow happened to get lucky to get 14-12 while the all games total was 20-37. I could have easily went e.g. 9-17 but I happened to pick the right games almost every time.

Math says that it cant continue, as its only luck. It could continue for a while, but it cant continue in the long run, so I had to stop the fades.

BUT, I will still cap the same way and play Over for those games, all of those games, because the record for the Overs for all those games is: 35-20-2

Now that doesnt seem to look like luck anymore, although its still a small sample size.

Theres some thoughts on why the change. I dont want to change just for the sake of change, but I do believe in changing things for the future's sake. While it could be fun to keep the system as it is, I dont want to do a system where the math says that it wont work in the long run. I want to find a winning system and I am believing that the Over system for the fade-games is as close as it gets.

[Scrivero]

1-1 again for -0.06 units. 2-0 for +1.9 units was very close, we shall start hitting those too

Last game of the Houston-series tonight. Tomorrow new series but I might not have the time for the first games, moving.

[Scrivero]

Missed the last Over of the series.

The two series we played went 2-3. Loss of roughly 1 unit.

We are in this system for the long term though, as it seems to hit at around 62 % rate with basically even odds.

Moving tomorrow so might not make it to the first games of the new series but should be back on Saturday.

Over record:
Overs we played: 12-8-1 (Record for all Overs for the fades: 18-11-1).(Record for all Overs of all games of the faded series: 36-22-2)
BR: +2.32 units

Total BR: +7.92 units

[Scrivero]

No games for the 30th of June, 1st of July or 2nd of July. Checking now for the series starting on 3rd of July.

[Scrivero]

The series of Reds @ Rockies is playable. At least my gambly capping side would play it.

Hence we play it Over for 1 unit. Play whatever line you get around even odds for.

[Scrivero]

I will now check the result but I gotta say, that no matter if we win or lose, this has become rather boring. Not sure what to do about that.

Ok, we lost. But doesnt really move me. This was interesting but is plain boring now.

Any suggestions on what to try to make it interesting again? Im not afraid to bet 5 units per bet or to ber all games of the evening etc. Anything to make it interesting but to not just throw away money.

[kingdom]

^^Everyone loves a winner. See if you truly have a knack for picking the over. There are team matchups as well as pitching to find potentially high scoring games. Certain ball parks. It has been interesting lately to try and guess which teams are going over, with the idea of the ball being juiced and all. Lines don't seem to be skewed despite the record breaking hr pace.

[Scrivero]

Thanks man, I will think about it.

[Scrivero]

Thought about it for 5 minutes and realized that I wont be able to make the research needed for it.

Hence I took 5 minutes to create a new system that takes around 5 minutes to choose and bet and post the plays each day. Granted that I wont lose enough to make me want to quit in 2 days.

Plays in the next post.

[Scrivero]

7/4

Tigers -1.5 RL 3 units
Yankees -1.5 RL RL 3 units
Rockies -1.5 RL 3 units

Now THIS feels exciting. Lets see if it'll win or not.

[Scrivero]

1-1 so far. Up to the Rockies now to decide whether the night is -3.4 units or +3.2 units.

By the way it wasnt far from being 2-0 so far. That is because we (by following the new system) were very close to playing the opponent of the Yankees instead of them.

See you tomorrow, good night!

[Scrivero]

Rockies failed so -3.4.units for the night.

I think I want to take an even bigger risk with the remaining circa +3 units, and lets say 10 units more. And I actually have a system ready again. Posting 1-3 plays later and will divide 13 units between those plays.

And I know, this is a way to lose my br for sure. And I am probably tilting too. But I dont mind. Its just a bit of money and its been fun. One last shot to try to make this fun and to build a big BR

AND I will make a promise to divide my whole br (13 units) between 1-3 plays for the next 3 nights no matter what happens. If we win and get to eg 17 units after tonight, then we will divide that between those 1-3 plays and so on. If we get past 3 games without losing our br, then we will evaluate again.

[Scrivero]

That was easy, 12.5 units on Dbacks-Dodgers U7.5. Good luck!

[Scrivero]

We hit the Under and made a profit of circa +11 units. We are luckily back in business. I will keep my promise of putting all my profits +10 units in on this system 3 nights in a row. Its scary but if I start again putting 1 unit here and there I will blow my BR slowly.

BR in play: 23.4 units.
Profit: +13.4 units.

[Scrivero]

11.7 units on Dbacks-Dodgers U7.5 and 11.7 units on Red Sox-Rays U7.5. Good luck once more, its survival time again! One more after this one unless we lose our whole br tonight. If we do, well, at least we gave it a shot.