[Scrivero]

I wasnt gonna do any system now that I have loads of stuff to do, but I noticed that I just cant get myself to just tail other people's system. No matter if they do well or not, I find it boring or at least it wont give me any feeling of accomplishment.

The idea of this thread is:

Bet the team to win that has the biggest line movement with their odds getting worse (e.g. +120 -> +105) from open* to close**.

*: Open refers to me checking the lines when I wake up, and not the actual opening lines. This is because I dont right now have time to check each game individually. I just take a screenshot of Pinnacle's odds (as decimal odds) in the morning and compare those odds to what the odds are when Im about to go to sleep/when I actually bet the games.
**: Close refers to the odds when I bet the games.

I will compare the line movement with European/decimal odds, as that shows the actual line movement. With American odds the plays would not be "right", e.g. -150 -> -190 is not as a big of a line movement as -110 -> -140, because: -150 = 1.67 and -190 = 1.53. Difference is 0.14. -110 = 1.91 and -140 = 1.71. Difference is 0.20.

I dont look at any reverse line movement, just the biggest line movement in decimal odds from open* to close**.

I will put 10 units into this system. I will bet 1 unit each bet. I will bet 1 game per evening unless 2 or 3 matches have exactly the same difference in line movement. I will check the line movement from the team that I will bet, and not from the opposing team, although they should have exactly the same line movement.

I know people do this a lot, there is nothing original about it. No one is visibly doing it directly on these forums though. There should also be programs that follow line movement. Someone can shoot me a pm if they know any. I might get better results when checking the actual open line for each game. BUT, like I mentioned, if I dont have a program where I will see the opening lines as decimal odds fast and easy, so I will just take a screenshot of the actual decimal odds when Im awake. That is because with 15 games, if I check each and write them (the teams and the odds, and convert the odds from Americal to decimal) down and then in the evening compare them it takes just too long. Even if it just takes like 20 minutes longer, it still takes too long especially in the morning, as I have to get to work and get my child ready for daycare etc. You know how it is.

First pick coming in circa 12 hours!

Edit. A spelling error in the title of the thread is probably a bad sign. Cant fix it anymore either, the edit wont let me edit that part.

[garvardntl]

So is the other thread going to just die now? Fade the forum, get rich thread?

[Scrivero]

So is the other thread going to just die now? Fade the forum, get rich thread?

It wont die but its on a hiatus because I dont have that 1.5 - 2 hours a day to do it properly. This system takes circa 10 minutes so I'll do this instead now. I hope I will some day again have the time to do the fade thread. Right now its all about moving to a new country, its just taking all my "free" time.

[Scrivero]

Starting BR: 10 units

5/19 bet, 1 unit:
Royals -106

Line movement was:
Open*: 2.060 (+106)
Close*: 1.943 (-106)

[Scrivero]

Starting BR: 10 units
Current BR: 9 units

5/19 bet, 1 unit: Royals -106 LOSS (3-4)
5/20 bet, 1 unit: Twins -121

Ok, took 12 minutes to check the play with my new strategy: Just checking the opening lines right when I bet and compare with the current lines. Saves the trouble of checking anything in the morning. Not listing the exact line movement now either, just posting the plays at least for now.

[2daBank]

i certainly understand not getting pleasure out of tailing other folks plays. What a little curious to me is didn't you have a thread where plays were strictly based on fading other ppl plays?

[Na_mean]

[FUqer]

Damn Canadians and their decimals, we need to get Jordan Peterson on that shit next.

On a more cereal note, what if there is a bigger line move later? It seems you're playing awful early for plays based on line movements. Are you inspecting line-ups, weather, or injury news etc.. to see if that's why the line moved? I guess that stuff might not matter if you're not looking at RLM and just basing it on line move.

In my limited experience, it seems to be about 50/50 regarding line moves, unless it's a big televised game or something special. Some people like to play on line movements of 20 cents or more in a short period time, (steam move).

Here is some ideas for you're next thread.
Play on Away Dogs with less than 30% backing between +130 and +145.
Play RRL on Dogs in games in Colorado.
And you said you before you wanted to fade streaks, fade the +1.5 RL plays in my SDQL thread.

Whatever you do, just trying to help, GL!

[Scrivero]

i certainly understand not getting pleasure out of tailing other folks plays. What a little curious to me is didn't you have a thread where plays were strictly based on fading other ppl plays?

lol I appreciate the notion and yes I did and I still have it. What was "fulfilling" about that system was that it took 1.5 to 2 hours each day to get the plays. And I dont have that time right now, sadly. And why I started tailing in between was because it took like 5 minutes per day. Too bad its very boring (especially when it seems to rather +-0 in money).

So this new system is kinda something of my own although rayher unoriginal and I must say a bit shady because of the early times i make the plays. Not really real line movement following at all.

[Scrivero]

Damn Canadians and their decimals, we need to get Jordan Peterson on that shit next.

On a more cereal note, what if there is a bigger line move later? It seems you're playing awful early for plays based on line movements. Are you inspecting line-ups, weather, or injury news etc.. to see if that's why the line moved? I guess that stuff might not matter if you're not looking at RLM and just basing it on line move.

In my limited experience, it seems to be about 50/50 regarding line moves, unless it's a big televised game or something special. Some people like to play on line movements of 20 cents or more in a short period time, (steam move).

Here is some ideas for you're next thread.
Play on Away Dogs with less than 30% backing between +130 and +145.
Play RRL on Dogs in games in Colorado.
And you said you before you wanted to fade streaks, fade the +1.5 RL plays in my SDQL thread.

Whatever you do, just trying to help, GL!

Yea I do play them very early, mostly because I am in Europe. And Im not inspecting anything regarding injuries etc., Im basically, like with all my system, trying to find some weird thing that works for some reason. Something that bri gs lots of money and requires only doing the same thing each night.

Haha I love your confidence in me starting another thread again soon I might do something like you mentioned. I want to find something that works. It though has to be somethin not related to the odsa because I will never be able to catch e.g. the cloaing lines.

Hmm, Twins game got postponed.. I must say that this is the most underwhelming of all my threads

I appreciate your help! Any other ideas are highly welcome. I have tried already some weird stuff such as betting a shorter team name to win a longer team name etc please dont ask why I know that was a stupid idea but something like that is exactly what I need. Sonething that takes some time to get started but then is easy to replicate each evening. Something that is not bound by th time when I make the plays. Sonething that will make the play the same regardless of the lines. I know it sounds a bit nuts but thats my goal witj MLB. With NHL i have systems based on data alone but for MLB I need to be a bit crazie to keep it interesting as I dont really follow the actual game, I jusy bet it.

[Scrivero]

Ok, I just came up with a great idea for a system.. It fulfills all the criteria that I just mentioned. I will take the 9 units left in this thread to that new system. I will start it tomorrow. Just gotta sleep on it and figure out the fina bdetails for it.

The idea as of now: Im thinking of betting max half of that 9 units and/or to win max half of it by betting on the first play that is posted on the thread by any random poster. And lets say I win that bet, then I have lets say 13.5 units.. What do I do then? Keep betting the half/to win the half again and again? Sounds a bit like reverse martingale but not quite. Its basically to keep it very interesting and gambly but to basically "never" go broke as I am always betting max half of my BR for the system or to win max half of my BR for the system. The main thingaking it interesting of course is that I let random people decide the bet. They maybe want me to win and post a super easy winner. Or theu want me lose but they accidentally post a winner.

Most likely I would lose the 9 units in 4 days, I wont bet less than 1 unit per play so it could go as: loss of 4.5, loss of 2.25, loss of 1.125 and loss of 1.125.

Tell me any improvements before tomorrow, I for one like this idea a lot good night!