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5/16/17

30-43-3, RoR–8.35% (vs 11/10 odds 48%)

Rays F5, ML, +152,Odorizzi / Salazar

BOL

Rays: The Rays problem is their bullpen. They stand 19-22 overall, but in the 5 inning head to head matchups their starters stand 25-11-5, and that is enough to lead every other team but Houston, where they tie at 71%. Odorizzi personally is 5-1 for quality starts and 4-2 head to head. He yields nothing to Salazar at 2-2 qs and 3-4 h2h. Nor does the Rays offense fail with a 41.5 rating versus right handed starters and a 17-7-3 record in 5 innings. The line for 5 inning games is almost always based on the full game line even though situational circumstances may be entirely different. One of Salazar’s major problems this year has been not getting off to a good start. He is vulnerable while Odorizzi has been rock solid. Bonus dollars in the 5 inning game created by the 9 inning probability is impossible to pass up.

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That should be 2-5 on Salazar's quality start record. Sorry.