Back in early April, I was looking at MLB Totals, and thought about the following situation that may generate more bets on the OVER, and possibly give more value to the UNDER:
Game Total is 8.
Pitcher 1 has a season-to-date ERA of 4.25.
Pitcher 2 has a season-to-date ERA of 4.50.
I wondered if bettors would flock to the OVER simply because 4.25 + 4.50 > 8.
I know most pitchers don't pitch an entire game, and this doesn't account for the bullpen. Again, just an idea.
So, I used totals and pitcher ERA to research via SDQL. The following simple query produced an immediate 5% ROI when betting the UNDER.
H and 6.5<=total<=8 and STDSERA>=total/2 and o:STDSERA>=total/2
The sweet spot on Total was from 6.5 to 8.0.
Both pitchers had an ERA of at least half the total.
The 'H' is just to pick a side; otherwise, games are returned twice.
UNDER Results since 2007:
Note: April is usually the slowest month, but this year it's on fire.
Games W-L-P (%under) Avg Total $ Under Season
20 11-9-0 (55.0%) 7.7 +$135 2007
74 42-26-6 (61.8%) 7.7 +$1,365 2008
68 35-31-2 (53.0%) 7.7 +$60 2009
99 54-42-3 (56.2%) 7.4 +$780 2010
233 123-99-11 (55.4%) 7.4 +$1,500 2011
249 134-100-15 (57.3%) 7.5 +$2,410 2012
233 119-100-14 (54.3%) 7.5 +$975 2013
269 143-114-12 (55.6%) 7.3 +$1,850 2014
330 172-145-13 (54.3%) 7.4 +$1,444 2015
187 103-77-7 (57.2%) 7.6 +$1,789 2016
30 22-8-0 (73.3%) 7.6 +$1,305 2017
Here's the monthly breakdown:
Note: Before this year, April was at -$269. Solid results the entire season.
Games W-L-P (%under) Avg Total $ Under Month
262 138-116-8 (54.3%) 7.5 +$1,036 4
324 165-143-16 (53.6%) 7.5 +$886 5
291 167-115-9 (59.2%) 7.5 +$4,158 6
260 143-104-13 (57.9%) 7.5 +$2,811 7
304 156-130-18 (54.5%) 7.5 +$1,427 8
313 169-125-19 (57.5%) 7.5 +$3,270 9
38 20-18-0 (52.6%) 7.3 +$25 10
Based on the hot start to the 2017 season, I figured I'd put the query out here, so it could be tracked the rest of the season. This will most likely jinx it.
There's actually another play tonight (5/1/2017): Tampa Bay at Miami with Total = 8
For those looking for fewer plays and an ROI better than just 5% ...
After some additional filtering on the ERA, and adding an extra filter for WHIP, I have the following system for betting the UNDER:
Bet the UNDER if ...
Total is 6.5 to 8.0
Both pitchers have an ERA of at least half the Total, but no higher than 5.25
Both pitchers have a WHIP from 1.25 to 1.55
H and REG and 6.5<=total<=8 and total/2<=STDSERA<=5.25 and total/2<=o:STDSERA<=5.25 and 1.25<=STDSWHIP<=1.55 and 1.25<=o:STDSWHIP<=1.55 and season>=2007
Results from last 10 seasons:
ROI: 13.0%
PROFIT: 72 units
Games W-L-P (%under) Avg Total $ Under Season
5 3-2-0 (60.0%) 7.7 +$100 2007
29 16-11-2 (59.3%) 7.7 +$380 2008
28 13-14-1 (48.1%) 7.7 -$215 2009
33 21-11-1 (65.6%) 7.4 +$905 2010
79 41-34-4 (54.7%) 7.4 +$375 2011
72 42-25-5 (62.7%) 7.5 +$1,455 2012
44 25-16-3 (61.0%) 7.6 +$815 2013
90 52-35-3 (59.8%) 7.4 +$1,315 2014
84 48-30-6 (61.5%) 7.4 +$1,500 2015
41 24-16-1 (60.0%) 7.7 +$632 2016
First game meeting the query requirements is typically the last week in April or first week in May, and it looks like the first potential plays are showing up for tomorrow (5/2/2017) right on schedule.
20170502 Cardinals Brewers Total=8.0
20170502 Padres Rockies Total=7.5
20170502 Tigers Indians Total=8.0
I'll follow up tomorrow if these become official UNDER plays.
For now, let's see if tonight's UNDER play on Tampa Bay at Miami with Total = 8 actually pans out.
Looks like I'll also need to remember to use tables when posting data, but no time to fix that right now.