[teecee]

The KillerSports guy will refer you to a discussion group, where there is a thread about this topic. In the thread he'd like you to reference, no one has a clue as to where or how the closing line is derived.

[TechnicalTrader]

I know somebody who knows him. I'll just email him directly.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

It looks like the Tigers, Mets, Cardinals, Indians and Red Sox could all be plays today. Is that correct? The Rockies, Giants, Padres and Angels likely won't be plays because of today's current odds. I'm just trying to make sure I understand what's going on. I like this and want to try it out.

[TechnicalTrader]

If it was gametime now, the following plays would qualify:

STL
CLE
NYM
BOS

DET is not a play because the Mariners odds went from -130 (April 25th) to -133 (April 26th) and is currently +136.

April 26th odds disqualifies it as a play. Those odds would've needed to be -129 or higher.

I hope it's clear now

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Yes, thank you. I made a mistake when looking at the odds in that game. This is pretty easy to keep up with. It just sucks how much odds change last hour before game time, but oh well. Nothing is perfect.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Has any microanalysis been done to compare dog vs. faves or home vs. away to see if one side profits more than the other?

[TechnicalTrader]

Has any microanalysis been done to compare dog vs. faves or home vs. away to see if one side profits more than the other?

Yes, what I noticed pretty quickly is any added variable took away RoI.

[Kenny King]

This system has such a high win percentage that it seems that it is unnecessary to stress out until the last possible minute. You are always playing on stronger trending teams vs weaker trending teams. Truth of the matter is that you can probably set a time 15 minutes before first pitch and just roll with it. You will miss one here and there as well as add one here and there, but over the course of the long season it will probably equal out.

[barryt]

Yesterdays' results:


RIOiF:
MIL RL won (will not count this one)
MIL SU won (will not count this one
BOS RL loss
BOS SU loss
LAA RL won
LAA SU won
RIOF4:
MIL RL won (will not count this one)
MIL SU won (will not count this one
SEA RL won
SEA SU won
LAA RL won
LAA SU won




Of course the only play "at game time " using Killer game time line was BOS .
This kind of thing happens very often as witnessed by my RIOF record.
ML 12-11 RL 9-13 BR $204 from $250 at $10 per bet
So it's a concern. I'll wait until the end of the month to decide if I'm able to follow this.


I noticed also that Killer changes the "lines" well after the game has started.. and always against me.. lower if I didn't bet and higher ,to make it a pass, if I did bet...it's a conspiracy..LOL

PS there have certainly been more than 2 occurrences. There are 3 right there above and many previous as witness by all the discussion on the "lines"

[TechnicalTrader]

This system has such a high win percentage that it seems that it is unnecessary to stress out until the last possible minute. You are always playing on stronger trending teams vs weaker trending teams. Truth of the matter is that you can probably set a time 15 minutes before first pitch and just roll with it. You will miss one here and there as well as add one here and there, but over the course of the long season it will probably equal out.

I added a variable which gives me a little extra "room" (for odds to be slightly off) in order to get plays that almost qualify. As you say above, even those which barely do not qualify tend to win. The system is money I tell you!

With that said, This is what I'm betting:

(SU and RL)

RIOF:
STL
CLE
NYM
BOS

RIOF4:
CLE

[TechnicalTrader]

Was the LAA line off also? I played them around 5:45 EST, right before I went to bed.

[barryt]

Was the LAA line off also? I played them around 5:45 EST, right before I went to bed.

Yes! I checked at 10pm and it was still -130 . This morning it showed closing at -147 .
see teecee post too,#354, he has it -130 also.

[barryt]

RIOF plays:
DAY BOS -118 needed -172. Play on
DAY STL -148 needed (first game of DH) --185 Play on
MIL -128 needed don't play til Friday
DAY SEA -133 needed (highly doubt it will qualify)+120 NO Play
NIGHT LAA -147 needed -120 NO Play
BAL -145 needed don't play tilFRI
EVE CLE -108 needed -160 Play on
DAY MEts -140 needed -170 Play on


All of these are cut and dried and bookie odds are similar to Killer odds.
AAAAAHHHHH!

[TechnicalTrader]

That really sucks! The tweak should avoid these types of situations. If the odds are = to the previous game, play!

[Kenny King]

It's really unbelievable how this system gets wins in the most unlikely fashion over and over again!

[hutasadorn]

Go Carpenter!!

[TechnicalTrader]

It's really unbelievable how this system gets wins in the most unlikely fashion over and over again!

I rarely, rarely watch games I have money on but that was some amazing sh!T.

[2buckluck]

Thanks TT, keep up the good work and keep those RIOF4 winners coming

[TechnicalTrader]

Not the best day yesterday!

RIOF:
STL, SU won, RL won
CLE, SU won, RL loss
NYM, SU loss, RL loss
BOS, SU loss, RL loss

RIOF4:
CLE, SU won, RL loss


RIOF, YTD (I deducted the MIL play):
SU; 30-17 +4.19units
RL; 22-25, +5.19 units

RIOF4, YTD(I deducted the MIL play):
SU; 23-6 +14.49 units
RL; 18-12 +11.95 units

Today's targets:

RIOF:
CLE, -180
MIL, -128 (Braves line needs to rise from +120 to +160, doubtful)
ARZ, -190 (currently at -140, doubtful)
TEX, -145 (currently at +105, doubtful)

RIOF4:
CLE

[Mackballs]

Results look great. Looks like a pretty serious system. Would like to start following but have no clue how. I guess just wait til official plays are posted? Good work TT.

[TechnicalTrader]

Results look great. Looks like a pretty serious system. Would like to start following but have no clue how. I guess just wait til official plays are posted? Good work TT.

Yeah, that's the easiest. Or just read the first post. Plenty of info there.

With that said, it looks like CLE will be the only play today.

[teecee]

Just out of curiosity, do you know, TT, the hit rate for teams that qualify on b2b days?

[TechnicalTrader]

b2b as in with no rest or playing after playing the same team?

[teecee]

Oh sorry. The Indians are playing a diff team today. So it would be no rest against a diff team. Not trying to trouble you, I just like to see the numbers if you have them. Thanks for everything.

[TechnicalTrader]

These are the stats from the following query:
wrong stats, gimme a sec here.

[TechnicalTrader]

My bad, here are the numbers:

RIOF, no rest, first game of series:

Games	Record, SU	avg line	opp avg line	$100/unit	Record, RL	avg line	opp avg line	$100/unit
28	21-7 (2.25, 75.0%)	-165.7	151	+$992	16-12 (0.75, 57.1%)	133.5	-145.3	+$859	season = 2013
42	31-11 (1.81, 73.8%)	-164.2	150.4	+$1,353	23-19 (0.31, 54.8%)	134	-145.8	+$1,095	season = 2014
43	28-15 (0.79, 65.1%)	-165.4	150.7	+$432	18-25 (-0.71, 41.9%)	132.9	-144.6	-$270	season = 2015
52	39-13 (1.94, 75.0%)	-163.8	151.3	+$1,900	33-19 (0.44, 63.5%)	129	-140.3	+$2,374	season = 2016
4	4-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	-149.4	137.4	+$400	3-1 (1.50, 75.0%)	130.8	-141.8	+$304	season = 2017

[barryt]

All NIGHT games so will wait til 6 pm

[teecee]

Small amt of games, but the winning pct supports playing Indians even at -200. Thank you

[TechnicalTrader]

CLE is official, both RIOF and RIOF4

[TechnicalTrader]

CLE loss, both the RIOF and RIOF4 plays.

Today's pending RIOF plays:
NYY
WAS
LAD

RIOF4:
NYY
WAS
LAD

[TechnicalTrader]

NYY and WAS both look like strong plays. CLE is getting close, very close. If CLE qualifies it will not be an RIOF4 play. I'm taking WAS and NYY now

[Mackballs]

TT, I read through the whole thread and think I may have missed something. I saw you said you are taking RIOF4 plays for 1.5% of bankroll. Now, if a play qualifies for an RIOF4 that means it automatically qualifies for an RIOF play I'm assuming. So does that mean you're taking the play to win 2.5% total? 1.5 being RIOF 4 and 1.0 being split .5 and .5 on su and rl on the RIOF play? Like the Yankees and Washington today for example...thanks for you help here.

[TechnicalTrader]

Exactly. But that's just how I'm managing my BR. For each his own...

[barryt]

3 DAY games
NYY -170
Was -190
both qualify so betting them now as expect lines will dip at game time.
4pm CLeve is in the imfamaous equal. Yesterday -190 today so far -190. It's going to be a pass for me either way as if it does go to -195 ,that's too steep for me as system only wins 65% so -195 is break even

[TechnicalTrader]

The RL performance on games with odds between -180 and -400 is 228-196 (+7.3% RoI), dating back to April of 2013. YTD 6-8, -11.6% RoI. April has otherwise been very good to RL picks with a 25.7% RoI dating back to 2013. I say this system is due and the RL has value!

BTW, even if that line sticks at -190, I am taking it. I'm taking any game with current odds equal to previous game. As stated earlier the performance is pretty much the same!