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Spring Training 4-4, +4.1% RoR

4/2/17

Cubs-Cardinals, Lester (24-8) / Martinez (22-9) First 5 Innings, Under 3.5, -102
A premier match-up of two guys that posted a combined 6-2 under record last year versus the opponent in question. Both are strikeout/ground ball pitchers that seldom allow the long ball.
The Cubs (supposedly) awesome offense has swung for the fences this spring and has not focused on contact hitting. You don’t cure that overnight just because the regular season is starting. There will be a carryover effect and the fact the Cubs led both the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues in strikeouts this spring will probably show up early and often.
The weather should be cool and cloudy with a 10% chance of rain, and a Southeast crosswind from right field to left. With a lefty/righty matchup that is in Martinez favor, but Lester dominated the Cardinals last year and we should not fear anything else.
Five innings of dominance from both starters is all I can see at this point. You also have the advantage of a Cactus/Grapefruit matchup, meaning neither offense has faced this particular starter this spring.
The number in parentheses indicates the quality start record of each starter last year, based on my own calculations, which are much better than MLB’s standard 6/3 and consider every start, not just the ones fitting the MLB format (which is inaccurate, a 4.50 era is not a quality start).
The only real fear I have about unders this year is that MLB likes the results of juicing the ball instead of the hitters. After a few years of average era’s being around 4.0 in the N.L. and 4.05 to 4.10 in the A.L., they juiced her up last year and pop flies from little guys are getting out easily. If you caught the first Cubs-Astros game in Houston you may have noticed Altuve’s homer was an opposite field shot from a relatively small guy, and years ago was just a pop out to right, but when he lofted it he had no doubt it was going out. Nowadays, instead of driving the ball hitters are using an uppercut swing, because they can count on the ball to carry.
The good news regarding unders is that bettors love overs and will consistently support high numbers, even when two top guns like Lester and Martinez are matched up.
BOL

[crackerjack]

How exactly are balls being juiced by the league?

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How exactly are balls being juiced by the league?

The tighter the winding around the core the harder the surface, and the greater flight of the ball. Ask any kid that ever bought a $2 baseball once upon a time and after the first game it was a mush ball. That is what writers are referring to as the "dead ball era" when they speak of it.