1. #1
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Tony Chau's NFL for baseball picks

    Back by popular demand, with reluctance (because I never did this from the start), I will post picks.

    Last year I did a 3 game chase. This year I will just post the qualifying picks, you can chase if you want.
    Last year from mid Aug until the end of the season, we hit a 70% win rate. Chasing, we hit a 98% win rate.

    Here's the link from last year. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ystem-mlb.html

    Qualifying pick are teams that lost 3 SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread).
    Bet the team on the ML (money line) if the favorite or bet the +RL (run line) if a dog.

    Today's play is KC +RL. Good luck.
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-08-17 at 08:10 AM. Reason: wrong play
    Points Awarded:

    boycali01 gave rkelly110 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    imotiv8
    imotiv8's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-28-09
    Posts: 876
    Betpoints: 5741

    Nice! Let's get it

  3. #3
    brainfreeze
    Meaning
    brainfreeze's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-13-14
    Posts: 5,467
    Betpoints: 246

    Wasn't texas 0-3 .. ? They're smashing everything 8-0

  4. #4
    2Shirts
    2Shirts's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 4,402
    Betpoints: 381

    Wasn't Texas 0-3 - continue the thought would love to hear. So they won't win a game - just projecting out on assumption.

    Quote Originally Posted by brainfreeze View Post
    Wasn't texas 0-3 .. ? They're smashing everything 8-0

  5. #5
    2Shirts
    2Shirts's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 4,402
    Betpoints: 381

    FACT they are 0-3 against the Indians. think

  6. #6
    brainfreeze
    Meaning
    brainfreeze's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-13-14
    Posts: 5,467
    Betpoints: 246

    Quote Originally Posted by rkelly110 View Post
    Qualifying pick are teams that lost 3 SU (straight up)
    k.
    This is why i referenced texas 2shirts

  7. #7
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Off to a good start. KC comes through as a big dog.

    I originally had Tex. They lost 3 SU, but one game was by one run as a dog so that didn't qualify. As you can see,
    they pounded their opponent. Hope you cashed.

    1-0

  8. #8
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Today's play is SF ML

    I will only be posting the same team 3 times. If they can't win a game with the +RL or ML after 6 tries (3 before we bet them) I will not be posting them again for the season.
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave rkelly110 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  9. #9
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    SF lost.

    1-1

    Today's plays are:

    SF (B) ML early game
    HOU ML early game

    Sunday's were good to us last year, let's get 'em!
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-09-17 at 06:45 PM.

  10. #10
    crackerjack
    crackerjack's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-01-06
    Posts: 3,366
    Betpoints: 4099

    Good luck. I like both these picks today and the idea of the chase in general

  11. #11
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    Good luck. I like both these picks today and the idea of the chase in general
    Good luck to you also. Most people don't like chases which is why I'm not going to emphasize it. We had a 70%
    straight bet season, as small as it was, last year. I'll leave it up to the individual to do the chasing.

  12. #12
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Good day yesterday.

    Houston pulls out a win in 12 innings having us guessing. San Fran gives us a no problem (B) win.

    No plays today.

    Record is 3-1

  13. #13
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Two games today.

    Clev ML early game (odds really low I will bet -RL)
    Tor ML

    GL
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-12-17 at 06:40 AM.

  14. #14
    brainfreeze
    Meaning
    brainfreeze's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-13-14
    Posts: 5,467
    Betpoints: 246

    Quote Originally Posted by rkelly110 View Post
    Off to a good start. KC comes through as a big dog.

    I originally had Tex. They lost 3 SU, but one game was by one run as a dog so that didn't qualify. As you can see,
    they pounded their opponent. Hope you cashed.

    1-0

  15. #15
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Indians pulled out a win.......barely.

    2 plays for today:

    STL +RL early game
    TOR (B) ML (low odds again)

    Record is 4-2

    GL
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-12-17 at 10:02 AM.
    Points Awarded:

    jcygts6 gave rkelly110 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  16. #16
    jcygts6
    Scared $$ Dont make $$
    jcygts6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-05-09
    Posts: 3,316
    Betpoints: 579

    Thanks let's get these!

  17. #17
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    STL gave us an easy SU win with nice ML odds.

    Today's plays:

    PIT +RL early game
    TOR (C)

    Record is 5-3
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-13-17 at 04:45 PM.

  18. #18
    jcygts6
    Scared $$ Dont make $$
    jcygts6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-05-09
    Posts: 3,316
    Betpoints: 579

    Thanks letsss goo!

  19. #19
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Well, Toronto sucked an egg. They will no longer be on my list. They've only won one game so far this year.
    Sorry for those who chased.

    Pirates almost pulled us out a SU win, but we'll take a +RL win.

    3 games need their info updated to see if we have a play, so far we don't.

    SU record so far is 6-4.

  20. #20
    jcygts6
    Scared $$ Dont make $$
    jcygts6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-05-09
    Posts: 3,316
    Betpoints: 579

    Yup jays are struggling big time

  21. #21
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    2 games for today.

    CLEV ML early game
    LAA ML

    GL
    Points Awarded:

    jcygts6 gave rkelly110 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  22. #22
    jcygts6
    Scared $$ Dont make $$
    jcygts6's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-05-09
    Posts: 3,316
    Betpoints: 579

    Thanks!

  23. #23
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Cleveland kicked major butt yesterday. LAA couldn't pull it off. Toronto finally won one.

    3 plays for today:

    LAA (B) ML or +RL depending on your book. Early game.
    ARI +RL early game
    OAK ML early game Rained out canceled

    Sundays have been good for us, let's get 'em!

    SU record 7-5
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-16-17 at 07:03 PM.

  24. #24
    skyblue0x
    skyblue0x's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-11-17
    Posts: 52
    Betpoints: 40

    Did you end up playing both RL and ML for LAA?

  25. #25
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Quote Originally Posted by skyblue0x View Post
    Did you end up playing both RL and ML for LAA?
    No. My book had them as a dog and I bet the +RL. Winner!

    I'm confused as to why OAK was taken off the board.

  26. #26
    skyblue0x
    skyblue0x's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-11-17
    Posts: 52
    Betpoints: 40

    Rain out so they rescheduled someday.

  27. #27
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Quote Originally Posted by skyblue0x View Post
    Rain out so they rescheduled someday.
    Thanks sky. Edited my post above.

  28. #28
    skyblue0x
    skyblue0x's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-11-17
    Posts: 52
    Betpoints: 40

    I like this system a lot. It hard enough to win 50% of the games, why not just try to win 25 or 40% and get a profit. Many times played a team and they lost and they win the next one lol. I have never applied in baseball so hope it all goes well for us. I'll keep an eye on this thread. If the team is decent and gives a shit then they will play hard and win during the chase. At end of season it not a big difference between the top team and near the bottom teams. Just need your guidance on when to play the RL or ML.

    What you think if Texas and St Louis next?

  29. #29
    boycali01
    boycali01's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-07
    Posts: 118
    Betpoints: 4226

    end up pick ML for laa. ready for stl and cubs tomorrow

  30. #30
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    My book had LAA as a dog and I bet the +RL for a win, but looking at the matchups this morning, they were the fav.
    You guys can bet them if you wish, if you bet the ML.

    STL as stated above, won on the +RL and is not a play today. Play at your own risk.

    Today's plays are:

    SD +RL
    CHC ML
    OAK ML (caution, TEX has lost 3 also, but doesn't qualify)

    SU record 9-5

    GL
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-18-17 at 05:48 AM.
    Points Awarded:

    mcmister gave rkelly110 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  31. #31
    boycali01
    boycali01's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-07
    Posts: 118
    Betpoints: 4226

    so the tex and stl won the RL (ats) in last 3 games right?

  32. #32
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Quote Originally Posted by boycali01 View Post
    so the tex and stl won the RL (ats) in last 3 games right?
    Yes.

  33. #33
    PokeyAristocrat
    PokeyAristocrat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-17
    Posts: 261
    Betpoints: 1154

    Wow rkelly, thanks for posting. In your experience have you found this system to be profitable?

  34. #34
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    SD gave us a win on the +RL, Cubs lost and OAK got creamed by TEX.

    SBR odds haven't updated, but found a new play of the ones that were. Will update if we have more.

    Today's plays are:

    CHC (B) ML
    NYM ML
    OAK (B) ML or +RL depending on your book

    Let's get these.

    Record is 10-7
    Last edited by rkelly110; 04-19-17 at 07:23 AM.

  35. #35
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 39,172
    Betpoints: 10576

    Quote Originally Posted by PokeyAristocrat View Post
    Wow rkelly, thanks for posting. In your experience have you found this system to be profitable?
    Started this last year mid Aug. Was down over 30 units. Ran it until the end of regular season and came out plus units. So far I'm up 6 units. This is my 1st year playing this from the start so tread lightly.
    Points Awarded:

    mcmister gave rkelly110 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    PokeyAristocrat gave rkelly110 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


1234 ... Last
Top