1. 07-30-16 06:38 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Saturday, 7/30/16

    3 MLB Plays Saturday

    Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Twins -112 (Heritage)


    YTD: 306-315-14, +0.61
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  2. 07-30-16 07:03 AM #2
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Toronto 60% (-150)
    Cubs 69% (-223)
    Mets 60% (-150)
    Cleveland 61% (-156)
    Boston 61% (-156)
    Dodgers 70% (-233)
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  3. 07-30-16 09:03 AM #3
    funnyb25
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    would you take under 7 +105 on phils?
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  4. 07-30-16 09:35 AM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    would you take under 7 +105 on phils?
    Barely, yes. +105 is the absolute minimum I would take.
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  5. 07-30-16 09:37 AM #5
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Barely, yes. +105 is the absolute minimum I would take.
    I don't mind playing for a push on that number...just hate it when you have an even number and mine moves to a .5

    brings a loss into play...

    you know what I mean?
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  6. 07-30-16 09:44 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    I don't mind playing for a push on that number...just hate it when you have an even number and mine moves to a .5

    brings a loss into play...

    you know what I mean?
    Absolutely know what you mean. Going from .5 to flat gives possibility of pushing, and many times betting the flat number is preferable at better odds, knowing going in you could be costing yourself a win by taking flat number. Totally different animal going from flat to .5 in wrong direction.
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  7. 07-30-16 09:47 AM #7
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Absolutely know what you mean. Going from .5 to flat gives possibility of pushing, and many times betting the flat number is preferable at better odds, knowing going in you could be costing yourself a win by taking flat number. Totally different animal going from flat to .5 in wrong direction.
    Last night for example was a funny one...You had braves under at 8 -110.....i locked it up at 8.5 -105...Huge movement for a total...Loved that play...Jenkens got out of some jams that brought my balls out of my ashole...was a very heavy wager...
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  8. 07-30-16 09:57 AM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Last night for example was a funny one...You had braves under at 8 -110.....i locked it up at 8.5 -105...Huge movement for a total...Loved that play...Jenkens got out of some jams that brought my balls out of my ashole...was a very heavy wager...
    That wasn't one of the scenarios I presented though as that moved .5 run the "right" way.
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  9. 07-30-16 10:47 AM #9
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    3 MLB Plays Saturday

    Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Twins -112 (Heritage)


    YTD: 306-315-14, +0.61
    Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.
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  10. 07-30-16 11:11 AM #10
    Spartak
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    Hi LT, how do you rate pirates tonight.
    10x and good luck with your plays.
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  11. 07-30-16 11:13 AM #11
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.

    Thats what I noted too. Shocked to see on an over 9.5. Toronto .240 against Gallardo too.
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  12. 07-30-16 11:15 AM #12
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Thats what I noted too. Shocked to see on an over 9.5. Toronto .240 against Gallardo too.
    I am sure somehow he based it on the pitching matchup, you know the xFip etc. LOL.
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  13. 07-30-16 11:19 AM #13
    LT Profits
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    3 MLB Additions

    6 MLB Plays Saturday

    Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (DSI)
    Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Mets UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Twins -112 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
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  14. 07-30-16 11:26 AM #14
    Stammertime91
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    LT what's the logic on Rays/Yankees U7.5. I'm all over the Over and actually hoping it drops to 7 myself.
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  15. 07-30-16 11:28 AM #15
    TheCaliforniaKid
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    The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.
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  16. 07-30-16 11:32 AM #16
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCaliforniaKid View Post
    The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.
    That stat is NOT included. Each game based on its own merit...famous words of LT
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  17. 07-30-16 11:33 AM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Unusual over for you, more of an under type guy??? I know, I know each game on its own merit blah etc.
    2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

    Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.
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  18. 07-30-16 11:34 AM #18
    Stammertime91
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    Smyly 4.88 ERA at home
    Eovaldi 5.3 ERA on the road

    7 runs isn't a lot with those guys on the mound
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  19. 07-30-16 11:35 AM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spartak View Post
    Hi LT, how do you rate pirates tonight.
    10x and good luck with your plays.
    I only get Pittsburgh 55% (-122) on road
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  20. 07-30-16 11:36 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stammertime91 View Post
    LT what's the logic on Rays/Yankees U7.5. I'm all over the Over and actually hoping it drops to 7 myself.
    Both starters have better peripheral numbers than ERAs
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  21. 07-30-16 11:37 AM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCaliforniaKid View Post
    The Yankees have gone Under 12 of the last 13 games. I would imagine that stat is included.
    Ignore short term noise like that
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  22. 07-30-16 11:40 AM #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stammertime91 View Post
    Smyly 4.88 ERA at home
    Eovaldi 5.3 ERA on the road

    7 runs isn't a lot with those guys on the mound
    ERA means nothing, see Post #20.
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  23. 07-30-16 01:08 PM #23
    eddycash
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    Twins no good now right? -125
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  24. 07-30-16 01:09 PM #24
    funnyb25
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    Bluejays/Orioles no good now right?
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  25. 07-30-16 01:15 PM #25
    eddycash
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    Why wouldnt it be? Its the same still
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  26. 07-30-16 01:18 PM #26
    ROFLcopter
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    LT, have you ever tracked how totals set at a certain number do over the course of a season? For example, it seems like a lot of 9.5's go under, where as a lot of 7.5's go over
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  27. 07-30-16 02:05 PM #27
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

    Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.
    Starting when?
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  28. 07-30-16 02:22 PM #28
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    3 MLB Plays Saturday

    Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Twins -112 (Heritage)


    YTD: 306-315-14, +0.61
    Easy winner...not how model drew up on Happ though...we will take it
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  29. 07-30-16 02:23 PM #29
    Slanina
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    Clutch two out hits. And Upton blows! Nice way to start the day.
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  30. 07-30-16 02:25 PM #30
    mikmik
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    Nice hit Lt
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  31. 07-30-16 02:29 PM #31
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slanina View Post
    Clutch two out hits. And Upton blows! Nice way to start the day.
    Why the heck did they ever trade for Melvin Upton Jr.????? This guy sucks????? What were they thinking????
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  32. 07-30-16 02:30 PM #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 below average starters + 2 good offenses = model total of 10.7

    Plus Happ is a prime fade the rest of the year.
    Must start on his next start??? He looked pretty good today.
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  33. 07-30-16 02:39 PM #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    Twins no good now right? -125
    No, model has 56% (-127)
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  34. 07-30-16 02:40 PM #34
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    1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

    7 MLB Plays Saturday

    Orioles / Blue Jays OVER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Rays UNDER 7.5 -120 (DSI)
    Phillies / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Cardinals -125 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Rockies / Mets UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Twins -112 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
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  35. 07-30-16 03:39 PM #35
    italianbandit
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    I like that under Phillies, good luck.
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