I have a free play, where pushes lose. I can only select from a few baseball games where home teams are favored by (-1) run. And total in each of this games is a whole number (7.0 or 8.0, not 7.5 or 8.5). So without even capping, I'm trying to make a selection on a game and minimize the chances of getting a push and losing the free play.
In general, is the push more likely on a random total or a random home team favorite 1-run win?
Note: if the difference between the two probabilities is under 20%, it doesn't really concern me because pushes as a whole are a pretty rare thing. However, if it is obvious that totals will push twice as often as the -1 favorite run line (ok, not twice but 50% more often?) that's something I'd like to know for future reference.
i would say there is no difference between the probability of a push on a spread and on a total. do you already have a play you're looking at for today?
As far as comparing two separate totals like that, statistically one isn't more likely than the other to land on the exact number and push, but it does become a factor with the RL -- i.e. the lower the total, the higher the chance the game will end up a 1-run game.