Colorado RL, ML: Colorado has a decent lineup, and they will actually not likely suffer from playing at Baltimore offensively. It probably isn't a coincidence that scoring at Coors becoming more controlled has coincided with a better road record for the Rockies.
Steve Francis has quietly settled into an elite groove of late, which is going a bit under the radar since his bad start to the season makes his overall season stats very normal-looking. But make no mistake, his May/June numbers are top-notch: WHIP under 1, BAA .200, ERA about 2.
Steve Trachsel continues to defy conventional wisdom when it comes to pitchers' stats and success. This has been going on for a few years now, so there may be something to it. But giving up twice as many walks as strikeouts is rarely a good sign. His home runs are down this year so far, but normally he gives them up as well.
Even if Trachsel has another eefective outing, Colorado will still be in decent shape to win if Francis continues his success. If Trachsel gets hit, Colorado will likely win by more than 1.
Tampa Bay/Florida under: It's true that Florida's home games are 16-8 to the over so far this year. But J.P. Howell may be about to become a quality major league starter. There was aniticipation in his first start this year, and he delivered in a big way. It was only against KC, true, but he still pitched well. Florida brings a tougher lineup, but it is not as strong as it has been in the first part of the year. Kim has also been effective his last two outings, and unless he gets hit here, the under will have a good chance of coming in. Florida's pen is rested enough to close out a good game for Kim, and Howell is likely to go fairly deep into the game and fairly well.
Mets/Detroit under: Detroit has been an eye-popping 17-6 to the over at home this year, but in this game I think it's time to zig where others may be zagging. Comerica is still a pitcher-friendly park, and this game has a very high total attached to it - 10.5, or 10 at plus odds for the under. The Mets of course have a bunch of injuries to their lineup, and are not scoring much now. Adding the DH will not help them much at all here. Who will it be? Franco? Newhan? They won't get much of an offensive boost from it.
Chad Durbin has pitched decently well at times this year, and he is likely to have another reasonable start here - maybe 5 or 6 innings, 2 or 3 runs. The Detroit bullpen is normally a major liability, but in this game, Minor, Byrdak, and Jones should all be available, and if Durbin has a decent start, those 3 may blow the game, but they're not likely to get hit hard.
On the other side, Sosa has pitched well in 5 of his 6 starts this year, and that is not likely a fluke. He is a very streaky picther, but has always had a decent amount of potential, and he seems to be at a legitimately good point now. The Mets' pen of course is deep and quality, and after blowing yesterday's game for the sweep, will likely be bearing down this whole series.
Minnesota RL, ML: (from my other post) Silva is always a bit vulnerable, but Simontacchi is not getting it done, even with the extra leeway of RFK (although he did, interestingly, have his best start of the year at Cincy).
And if the game is close at the end, Minnesota should have a significant pen edge. They had yesterday off, so all their top guys should be good to go. Washington, on the other hand, has an inferior pen, and on top of that, it is not rested at all. Their top 2 guys, Colome and Cordero, have each pitched 3 straight days.
Milwaukee/Texas over: Milwaukee should get a boost offensively in this series, in the same way that Detroit did earlier this week, and in the same way they did when they went to Cincinnati in April. If Tejeda has control problems, they may get to 10 all by themselves, by the 5th inning. Capuano is decent, but better in pitchers' parks, and he may well have one of his patented 5- or 6-inning, 3- or 4-ER starts here. If Tejeda has a shut-down start, as he is always capable of, this game will not likely get over. But if he continues to have problems, as he has mostly had this year, it will probably hit at least 10.
Houston/White Sox under: Both teams have lineups that can relatively easily be held down, and both starters here are the kind of pitchers who can usually control weaker lineups. The runs will trickle in in this game, but IMO, there is value at 9.5, or 9 at plus odds or 10 at favorite odds.
Boston RL: Boston will be very happy to leave Oakland. Chase will seem like a pinball machine after the quicksand of McAfee. They won't need a no-hitter to win a game in this series, you can be sure of that. Doug Davis can be very effective, but he is also hittable. If he has a strong start, Arizona will probably win, or possibly lose by 1. But if he is not on his top game, Boston will very likely win by more than 1.
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June 8 Ganchalysis: plays I'm liking tonight
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