[smitch124]

that sounds about right but I think if you break that down to teams who score a ton of runs, it's probably closer to 10%


I looked at Toronto last year only around 10-13% of their wins were by 1 run in the second half

Yes but remember that the RL for high totaled games is lower for the fav.

[killawookie]

What about the O's? 5-1 for RL.. and Everyone has them pegged to lose the division.. lmao.

[funnyb25]

5-3 cubs...haha

[mikefan1034]

What about the O's? 5-1 for RL.. and Everyone has them pegged to lose the division.. lmao.

It's 6 games into the dam
Season with 162 game season u stupid peasant

[Bigdave117]

and that's why this betting strategy is great


Even when the cubs starter struggles
Even when the cubs offense gets dominated for 6 2/3 innings
They can still put up a ton of runs in a heartbeat. Offense is incredibly explosive and bullpen is so dominant

[Pikappee251]

Thank you, thank you.

[Bigdave117]

Even if they improved by 15 games, which would be a phenomenal feat, considering they won 97 games last season, they would still be below .500 on the -1.5 RL. You're confusing a team being good with equating to being able to profit off of gambling on them. You don't think the books already know they're good? The lines are already juiced on this team and it's still April. They're going off as -200 favs tonight against a team with an equal record to theirs on the season. The Cubs will be juiced against every team they play, except for an occasional away game against another good team or a game where the other team has their ace on the mound and they have their 4 or 5 going. You won't be able to make money off of that long term paying such high prices and sure as hell not spotting the other team runs before the game even starts. Just wait until they have a series like last season where they get swept at home by the Phillies or lose 2 straight series to the Brewers and you'll see what I mean, when you lose 3 straight >-200 bets or 7 out of 9 bets total all chalk. If it was that easy we'd all be millionaires.

If the cubs go 112-50, I'm guessing 100 of those wins will be by 1.5 runs. That's about 61% winning percentage and the runlines generally are going to be between +130 to -130 (+110 today).

I agree with you that it's not that easy to lay chalk all the time and win but this cubs team is incredibly dominant - beyond dominant actually. Great offense, starting staff, dominant bullpen and great defense. We will have to see how hard Vegas adjusts - it's obvious even they have underestimated how great this team is

[d2bets]

Another game, another blowout.

[Bigdave117]

holy moly, cubs RL is 6-1 for the season


no way in hell any team can be this dominant over a big sample size, right? If they even maintain half their run differential all year, they'll outscore opponents by a combined 416 runs

[iloseagain]

If the cubs go 112-50, I'm guessing 100 of those wins will be by 1.5 runs. That's about 61% winning percentage and the runlines generally are going to be between +130 to -130 (+110 today).

I agree with you that it's not that easy to lay chalk all the time and win but this cubs team is incredibly dominant - beyond dominant actually. Great offense, starting staff, dominant bullpen and great defense. We will have to see how hard Vegas adjusts - it's obvious even they have underestimated how great this team is

You are kidding, right? First off, no chance they win 112 games. Second off, no chance if they win 112 games, they will win 100 by 2+..

116 games in a season is the record.. You really think in todays MLB that they will be freakin 4 games off of the ALL TIME record? Sheesh

[Bigdave117]

You are kidding, right? First off, no chance they win 112 games. Second off, no chance if they win 112 games, they will win 100 by 2+..

116 games in a season is the record.. You really think in todays MLB that they will be freakin 4 games off of the ALL TIME record? Sheesh

The cubs are 7-1 through 8 games, in that period they are


#1 in league in runs
#3 in ERA
#1 in bullpen ERA
#1 in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage


Not only do I think that they'll win 110, I think they might even break the all time record and win 117-119 games. Have you watched this team play? They've absolutely bludgeoned opponents. They would be 8-0 if Joe Maddon just walks Paul Goldschmidt in their only loss.

[iloseagain]

The cubs are 7-1 through 8 games, in that period they are


#1 in league in runs
#3 in ERA
#1 in bullpen ERA
#1 in defensive efficiency and fielding percentage


Not only do I think that they'll win 110, I think they might even break the all time record and win 117-119 games. Have you watched this team play? They've absolutely bludgeoned opponents. They would be 8-0 if Joe Maddon just walks Paul Goldschmidt in their only loss.

admittedly, i have not watched them, but they have played Angels (suck ass), Zona (suck ass), Cinci (suck ass). They should be hammering these teams. Unless they play these 3 teams all year, then they have 0 chance of winning 105 games.

You must be a cubbies fan

[Bigdave117]

admittedly, i have not watched them, but they have played Angels (suck ass), Zona (suck ass), Cinci (suck ass). They should be hammering these teams. Unless they play these 3 teams all year, then they have 0 chance of winning 105 games.

You must be a cubbies fan

Angels are 5-2 not counting their games against the Cubs
Diamondbacks are 2-3 not counting their games against the cubs
Reds are 5-1 not counting their games against the Cubs


are these teams really that bad or are they just getting bulldozed by a fantastic team? The Angels gave up 15 runs to the cubs in 2 games at home and they've allowed 21 runs since then in 7 games


Watch the team play and you'll understand why so many people think they'll easily win 100+. I personally think they'll win 110 plus. Very very rare for a team to have this combination of explosive, patient offense + very good, deep starting pitching + completely dominant bullpen + very good team defense. They can win a 20-17 homerun hitting slugfest, a 1-0 starting pitching duel or a 3-2 bullpen dominated small ball game. It's just very rare for a team to be multifaceted like that.


What's crazy is they're really not even clicking on all cylinders yet on offense. Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward, Soler and Russell are all hitting way way below their expected average. Bryant's got 1 HR and just a few RBI - he'll likely hit 35-38 HRs this year with 115 RBI

[iloseagain]

i dont care what their records are against non-cubs haha.. Cinci is not good regardless of their 5-1 record against non-cubs. Angels arent good. DBags arent good. Those are facts

[turtlejc]

i live in chicago and hate the cubs and might sound bias but there is no way they keep this up

they are playing horrible teams with a few good hitters on each, most over aged

just wait until it warms up in the 80's and 90's and lester/lackey start getting rocked at wrigley...

even if they do keep up at this pace, what makes you think the books wont keep up too? their run line will become their money line at this rate...would be better off taking the other team and hope they lose by 1

[habitualwinning]

Has the Cubs -1.5 RL been + or even money in all their games so far except the ones that Arrieta pitched? I haven't been paying attention every game.

[Bigdave117]

i dont care what their records are against non-cubs haha.. Cinci is not good regardless of their 5-1 record against non-cubs. Angels arent good. DBags arent good. Those are facts

Such an ignorant post. "I don't care what their record is, they're not good because I say so"


Angels are about an 80 win team, cinci is about a 75-80 win team. Both teams are about average. They're not great teams but they're certainly not horrible

Wait till Cubs play the real bottom feeders like Milwaukee and Atlanta. They will absolutely blitz them to hell. Expect average score in those games to be 9-1

[d2bets]

i live in chicago and hate the cubs and might sound bias but there is no way they keep this up

they are playing horrible teams with a few good hitters on each, most over aged

just wait until it warms up in the 80's and 90's and lester/lackey start getting rocked at wrigley...

even if they do keep up at this pace, what makes you think the books wont keep up too? their run line will become their money line at this rate...would be better off taking the other team and hope they lose by 1

That'll just play to the Cubs advantage. Power up and down the Cubs lineup, and Baez hasn't even played yet.

[MUHerd37]

Doing the martingale with them myself. ML tho, not RL.

[Bigdave117]

just wait until it warms up in the 80's and 90's and lester/lackey start getting rocked at wrigley...

Lol and you don't think Bryant, Rizzo and company are going to absolutely crush the ball when it's warm?

Instead of winning 9-1, they'll win 15-5

[swordsandtequila]

[iloseagain]

Such an ignorant post. "I don't care what their record is, they're not good because I say so"


Angels are about an 80 win team, cinci is about a 75-80 win team. Both teams are about average. They're not great teams but they're certainly not horrible

Wait till Cubs play the real bottom feeders like Milwaukee and Atlanta. They will absolutely blitz them to hell. Expect average score in those games to be 9-1

thats not ignorance buddy, thats fact. Do you even know what ignorance is? Way to change my words completely. I said i dont care what their records are against shit teams.. They won a few games in the beginning of the season, big fukkin whoop. That doesnt mean shit. Those arent good teams, fact.

[d2bets]

thats not ignorance buddy, thats fact. Do you even know what ignorance is? Way to change my words completely. I said i dont care what their records are against shit teams.. They won a few games in the beginning of the season, big fukkin whoop. That doesnt mean shit. Those arent good teams, fact.

Wins are wins. All teams win games. Beating up on "bad" teams is how you compile a ton of wins. 7-1 is what it is. Sure it's early. But it's not too early to know this is a special team. I think most everyone knew that was the case before the season started.

[swordsandtequila]

Kerry Woods and Mark Prior, ring a bell? Might want to slow your roll a little...

[iloseagain]

Wins are wins. All teams win games. Beating up on "bad" teams is how you compile a ton of wins. 7-1 is what it is. Sure it's early. But it's not too early to know this is a special team. I think most everyone knew that was the case before the season started.

i was referencing the teams the cubs played.. Not the cubs

[d2bets]

Kerry Woods and Mark Prior, ring a bell? Might want to slow your roll a little...

This team isn't built on one or two starters. It's built on a whole stable of positional talent that is young and/or under contract with more in the pipeline to follow. Whatever happened in the early 2000's could literally not be less relevant.

[d2bets]

i was referencing the teams the cubs played.. Not the cubs

I agree the Reds will be sub-.500. D'Backs might be OK. Angels are average. These are neither the best nor the worst teams in the league.

[swordsandtequila]

This team isn't built on one or two starters. It's built on a whole stable of positional talent that is young and/or under contract with more in the pipeline to follow. Whatever happened in the early 2000's could literally not be less relevant.

The point is it's early in the season, one Tommy John surgery and another bat going down (ala Schwarber) changes everything. Injuries derail "elite " teams all the time. Cubs have talent, no doubt about it. Maybe let them actually win something before declaring them the '27 Yankees.

[Bigdave117]

Vegas is getting absolutely smoked so far on the cubs games



how much longer until they start it make - 350/250 on the RL?

[Bigdave117]

game is 7-0


Cubs runline is 8-1 now for the season. Holy moly

[thellama]

I've been doing rl and over, they've been covering the over by themselves at times. Might get off this train after Cinci, tho.

[d2bets]

Another game, another blowout, 8-1 Cubs.

64 runs scored (7.1) to 21 against (2.3).

And Rizzo (.182) and Heyward (.216) haven't even gotten going yet.

[d2bets]

I've been doing rl and over, they've been covering the over by themselves at times. Might get off this train after Cinci, tho.

Dude, next they play the Rockies. The. Rockies.

[Bigdave117]

I've been doing rl and over, they've been covering the over by themselves at times. Might get off this train after Cinci, tho.

They face the Rockies now - who were #14 in the NL last year in runs scored in road games while being #12 in pitching ERA in road games. I fully expect a sweep and I think some of the games this weekend will be in the ballpark of 15-2


I may make the biggest bet I've ever make in the Arrieta game on Saturday. Arrieta against a Rockies team away from Coors field with a red hot cubs offense/bullpen backing him up? It just doesn't get any better than that. Even if he gets rocked (very unlikely), cubs will still probably win 9-5.

[iloseagain]

Dude, next they play the Rockies. The. Rockies.

oh god... i can taste the $$$ now. I have been taking cubs, cubs tt, and cubs game overs.. Lets just say its been very profitable.