1. 01-23-10 10:45 PM #1
    fifawcs
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    MLB Futures

    How much would you guys pay for projections of the 2010 MLB season? I found some that are $30 and want to know if I would be paying too much.
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  2. 01-24-10 07:22 AM #2
    ryanspeer2001
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    With all due respect please do not pay for predictions. No matter how solid they are parity is the name of the game with baseball and they would need to be able to give you a concrete edge of over 5-6% to make them profitable. No one can provide that. Be patient and good info will be abundent soon.
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  3. 01-24-10 05:09 PM #3
    fifawcs
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    He's this recent college grad who majored in statistics. He's one of the smartest people I know and understands baseball really well. I figure his calculations are probably better than any guesses I can make off the top of my head. It's one thing to know that the Mariners will be good. The question is: how good will they be? What's $30 if I can get an edge and clean up in futures?

    I guess I understand what your saying. This is his first time selling them. And if his projections are off then im screwed. But he is pretty smart, so I'll probably take the $30 risk. Wish me luck.
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  4. 01-24-10 05:35 PM #4
    Lint Pockets
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    well i have never done that before but i dont see how that can work unless someone is able to tell the future so i would just wait a little and see the info as it comes available.
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  5. 01-25-10 08:57 AM #5
    julio_cat
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    Do you want to pay for info that can help you with future MLB props?
    I suggest don't do it.
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  6. 01-25-10 08:44 PM #6
    fifawcs
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    It's $30, which is nothing if the info is good. Obviously, that's my concern here. I read some of the posts on this forum about where people thought teams like the Mets will end up. I'll definitely wait until the actual lines and totals come out to buy it. I just think that buying calculations that someone poured hours over is wiser than going with my gut.

    While it's impossible to predict the future, this guy is pretty good. He knew the Rays were going to be good in 2008. He nailed last years futures too. So ill take my chances.
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  7. 01-28-10 07:58 PM #7
    fifawcs
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    He has a website. http://www.mlbprojections.com
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  8. 01-28-10 10:25 PM #8
    whatsgood5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    He's this recent college grad who majored in statistics. He's one of the smartest people I know and understands baseball really well. I figure his calculations are probably better than any guesses I can make off the top of my head. It's one thing to know that the Mariners will be good. The question is: how good will they be? What's $30 if I can get an edge and clean up in futures? I guess I understand what your saying. This is his first time selling them. And if his projections are off then im screwed. But he is pretty smart, so I'll probably take the $30 risk. Wish me luck.
    You know the guy and he won't give it to you for free? What a dick
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  9. 01-29-10 01:23 AM #9
    2Bdown
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    seems steep for a forecast
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  10. 01-29-10 10:02 AM #10
    fifawcs
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsgood5 View Post
    You know the guy and he won't give it to you for free? What a dick
    It's understandable though. If you spent a lot of time on something you wouldn't want to give it away to everyone for free. Besides, he and I aren't good friends.
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  11. 01-29-10 10:09 AM #11
    whatsgood5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    It's understandable though. If you spent a lot of time on something you wouldn't want to give it away to everyone for free. Besides, he and I aren't good friends.
    Oh alright, that makes sense. I still don't really think it'd be smart to buy this, I'd almost think you're better off reading Sports Illustrated when their preview edition comes out as opposed to paying for this...
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  12. 01-29-10 12:56 PM #12
    fifawcs
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatsgood5 View Post
    Oh alright, that makes sense. I still don't really think it'd be smart to buy this, I'd almost think you're better off reading Sports Illustrated when their preview edition comes out as opposed to paying for this...

    Everyone uses sports illustrated though, including the sportsbooks. I want to have an edge over the sportsbooks. Besides, it's not like sports illustrated does win totals, they just do power rankings. At least I will have concrete win values to compare to the totals sportsbooks set.
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  13. 01-29-10 04:43 PM #13
    Coloradoland
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    ehh, Bah Hum bug.... I don't agree with this forecast.
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  14. 01-29-10 11:05 PM #14
    Shortstop
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    Make your own projections and save your money!
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  15. 01-30-10 12:52 AM #15
    Gonna_Win
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    shouldn't pay for predictions, not worth it.
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  16. 01-30-10 10:17 AM #16
    fifawcs
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shortstop View Post
    Make your own projections and save your money!
    Yeah, because I'm sure I can do them so easily. Is everyone on SBR a sabremetrician or do you all have too much pride to pay for an edge? I think I will do it. $30 doesn't cost much in the long-run and if it helps me make money, then it will definitely be worth the purchase. No offense to you guys, but I don't think using Sports Illustrated or doing what everyone else does is a very smart idea.
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  17. 02-20-10 07:18 PM #17
    fifawcs
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    He's giving them out for free for a limited time on the website. Lol
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  18. 02-21-10 07:53 AM #18
    konck
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    Fifa do what I do wait until the Yankees tank the fist couple of weeks they always do Arot/Tex will bat 230 for a while Takabathia will get bombed 3 of the first 5 he pitches and everyone will think he gained to much LB's over the winter ...the Yanks will be in 4th an +195 to win the Div then hammer it an sit back laughing. In June last year I bet the Yanks from +195 to +130 to win the div
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  19. 02-21-10 08:06 AM #19
    Pair of 5s Sir
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    Quote Originally Posted by konck View Post
    Fifa do what I do wait until the Yankees tank the fist couple of weeks they always do Arot/Tex will bat 230 for a while Takabathia will get bombed 3 of the first 5 he pitches and everyone will think he gained to much LB's over the winter ...the Yanks will be in 4th an +195 to win the Div then hammer it an sit back laughing. In June last year I bet the Yanks from +195 to +130 to win the div
    Nice to see you on the site Konck. Long time no see, from last year's SBR poker tournament. GL this baseball season. Regards.
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  20. 02-21-10 12:02 PM #20
    fifawcs
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    Quote Originally Posted by konck View Post
    Fifa do what I do wait until the Yankees tank the fist couple of weeks they always do Arot/Tex will bat 230 for a while Takabathia will get bombed 3 of the first 5 he pitches and everyone will think he gained to much LB's over the winter ...the Yanks will be in 4th an +195 to win the Div then hammer it an sit back laughing. In June last year I bet the Yanks from +195 to +130 to win the div
    The Yanks usually start off slow then get their act together. Though, I feel like this year may be different. CC and AJ have already adjusted to playing in Yankee Stadium. The Yanks seem like a different team from past seasons.
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  21. 02-21-10 12:41 PM #21
    whatsgood5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    The Yanks usually start off slow then get their act together. Though, I feel like this year may be different. CC and AJ have already adjusted to playing in Yankee Stadium. The Yanks seem like a different team from past seasons.
    Agreed, I think they'll get off to a hot start and stay hot.
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  22. 02-21-10 12:41 PM #22
    whatsgood5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    He's giving them out for free for a limited time on the website. Lol
    Oh nice, hope you didn't end up buying them.
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  23. 02-21-10 02:42 PM #23
    pinnerpsk
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    The Yanks usually start off slow then get their act together. Though, I feel like this year may be different. CC and AJ have already adjusted to playing in Yankee Stadium. The Yanks seem like a different team from past seasons.

    That may be true, but I dont see the Yankee starters staying healthy like they did last year
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  24. 02-21-10 03:18 PM #24
    KENDRY
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    If CC get injured, the Yankees would have the worst rotation in baseball.
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  25. 02-21-10 05:57 PM #25
    fifawcs
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    No they wouldn't. First of all, CC's health hasn't been an issue at any point in his MLB career. Second, Vazquez, AJ, Pettitte, Hughes, Joba/Aceves would still be better than a lot of the league.
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  26. 02-22-10 09:55 AM #26
    Willie Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by fifawcs View Post
    It's understandable though. If you spent a lot of time on something you wouldn't want to give it away to everyone for free. Besides, he and I aren't good friends.
    I spend a good 150 hours each offseason plugging in projections for players, dropping in the official MLB schedule and running at least five simulations on my little program, and I've never charged anyone for any of the info. And that is on top of the hundreds of hours of data entry and stats research I did for free when the programmers were building the sim back in 2001-02.

    I'm with ryanspeer on this; unless he's offering some moneyback guarantee to be within 5% of his projections, take that $30 and put it on some three-team parlay instead.

    I ran sims this past weekend, by the way. Will be sorting through the results to build my own win total predictions and will post them in the next 7-14 days (at least that's my plan).
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  27. 02-22-10 02:10 PM #27
    whatsgood5
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    Lookin' forward to see your results willie, should be very interesting
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  28. 02-24-10 06:59 AM #28
    rob11234
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    There's always the possibility that you pay the $30 and none of the predictions pan out - you could end up doing far worse than you would have. And it only takes one injury to throw off a prediction completely.
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  29. 02-24-10 04:06 PM #29
    SkivChef
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    I hear morrison is putting out his 2010 mlb projections package later this month. Necessary filters will come out at the all-star break then again in october!
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