6/26
CLE Indians (Kluber) @ BAL Orioles (Chen)
Under 7.5 -121
Both pitchers have no significant number of starts against their opponents, so we start with them directly.
Kluber is doing worse this year compared to last year, but mostly only regarding his raw numbers like W-L (3-9 vs 18-9) and ERA (3.65 vs 2.44). Kluber had some bad outings, that's right, but he was also lightsout a few times and got no win, because the Indians don't seem to score when he starts. When Kluber is on the mound they average 2.3 runs/game. When someone else starts they average 4.5 runs/game. And, what's even more important to me, his sabermetrics and WHIP are not much worse than last year. Kluber's xFIP and SIERA in 2015 are about 0.9 runs lower than his ERA and his WHIP is only 0.06 higher than last season. It seems that he was rather unlucky this year as his sabermetrics and WHIP are still kinda elite. His road ERA (4.02) is higher than his home ERA (3.21), but his road xFIP (2.72) is slightly better than his home xFIP (2.89). All in all I expect him to lower his ERA over the next weeks a little bit and so it's a good thing to expect his opponents to score not too many runs. All in all the under is 14-4 in Kluber's last 18 road starts and the under is also 17-4 in his starts when he had thrown more than 105 in his previous start (he has thrown 112 in his last start vs. Tampa).
Wei Yin Chen starts for the Os and he is doing very well this year. The Chinese has a 2.89 ERA and a WHIP number of 1.12. He is 3-4 in 13 starts, which means he got 6 no-decisions. This is mainly due to the fact the Os score only 3.5 runs/game when he starts, while they score 4.8 runs/game when someone else starts. Chen's sabermetrics tell us that he was a little bit lucky, as his xFIP and SIERA are about 1 run higher than his ERA, but all in all both sabers are still below 4.00 and so it's far from bad. Additionally his home xFIP (3.60) is much better than his road xFIP (4.43). The Under is 17-7-1 in Chen's last 25 home starts. The under is also a whopping 31-11-1 in Chen's starts when he'd thrown at least 100 pitches in his previous start (he had 106 in 8 innings of 0-run-ball against the Phillies in his last outing).
The Indians have won 7 of their last 10 road games when the opponents starter was a lefty, but they scored only 3.8 runs/game and won them most times because of strong pitching (2.8 runs allowed/game). Therefore the under is 7-3 in those 10 games. When the total was lower than 8 the under is 19-10 in the last 29 games of the Indians in this situation. And the under is also 9-5 in the last 14 road series openers of the Indians when the total was lower than 8. The Indians offense is more or less mediocre (95 wRC+ this season), but they scored slightly less runs when the opponents starter was a lefty (3.8) compared to the opponents starter being a righty (4.2).
The Orioles offense has done well recently, but hasn't faced elite starting pitching in about 3 weeks. The last elite starter they faced was Dallas Keuchel on June 4th. It's important for the bet that they face a good starter, as the under is 7-2 this season when the Os play at home and face a righty starter with an ERA of lower than 4.00. Additionally the under is 11-4 in Os games this season when the total is lower than 8.
Regarding the pens, both have done well recently. The Os pen has a 2.51 over the last 7 days, the Indians pen an ERA of 1.09. Additionally the under is 6-1 in the last 7 matchups between both teams.
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Originally Posted by 44 Mag
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