[posey]

Holy moses, awesome. Very nice idea. This looks incredibly good thusfar. Will definately follow this thread.

[McCarthyFam]

This is quite interesting, I must say. Definitely worth looking in to.

Thanks! I thought it was too. Just had a day off and figured what else is there to do on this cold and rainy day.

awesome idea. i will def be checking in. keep up the good work man..

thanks! I appreciate it. If you or anyone else see's anything interesting to increase the winning %, please let me know.

[McCarthyFam]

I just tallied up the total for the plays that are 5% and less and the results are amazing!
21-16 (+$997 )

Plays listed from 5%-10%
13-18 (-231)

Plays listed from 10%-25%
40-32 (+908)

I will continue to post all plays, but I believe we have something here with plays that are given 5% chance or less. Equates to over half of the winnings, and less action.

[2daBank]

Thanks! I thought it was too. Just had a day off and figured what else is there to do on this cold and rainy day.



thanks! I appreciate it. If you or anyone else see's anything interesting to increase the winning %, please let me know.

whenever i have some extra time i will certainly look over and try to brain storm a little but as is it looks like there not a whole hell a lot of sense in filtering. it still very early in a year but like i said before you had gotten far in the tally "id expect you to find good results cause most the ppl that play that gm are half retarded squares". doubt the majority all a sudden grows a brain, sure there be some bad days but NC proves every year that playing teams no one wants is generally quite profitable.

[McCarthyFam]

4/27

2% Twins +150

7% Phillies +141
7% Astros +107

13% Blue Jays +123
12% Rays +116
12% Marlins -125
18% Brewers +113
19% Diamondbacks -137
22% Giants +143

4/27: 2-7 (-$514)

Season: 76-73 (+$1160)

[Semper Fidelis]

This is definitely very interesting information, and I know I'm not alone in expressing my appreciation for your work regarding this, my friend! Just wanted to point out that you can actually backtest this theory as far back as you want to go over the past several seasons, as you can access any day that SFTC has been around and see the plays. However, I don't know that it'll still show the %s, which I'm assuming is the most important aspect of this theory - but it will still show whether it was warm, hot, cold, etc. if that makes a difference. I don't know if that information would actually be valuable without the %s, just trying to help by pointing it out just in case.

Thanks again for looking into this, will definitely be checking by and seeing the progress and/or point out anything if I notice any trends or seemingly significant stats.

[2daBank]

4/27

5% White Sox +119 Postponed
3% Twins +150

7% Phillies +141

13% Blue Jays +123
11% Rays +116
11% Marlins -125
17% Brewers +113

Will add late games later on.

I personally bet $25 on all games except for %5 or less. I placed $50 on those

good deal. phils my favorite play of the day anyways..of coarse im going to gm so will be a little torn while watching. go phils i guess, but keep it quite!! and fish were the only fav i played at open

[McCarthyFam]

This is definitely very interesting information, and I know I'm not alone in expressing my appreciation for your work regarding this, my friend! Just wanted to point out that you can actually backtest this theory as far back as you want to go over the past several seasons, as you can access any day that SFTC has been around and see the plays. However, I don't know that it'll still show the %s, which I'm assuming is the most important aspect of this theory - but it will still show whether it was warm, hot, cold, etc. if that makes a difference. I don't know if that information would actually be valuable without the %s, just trying to help by pointing it out just in case.

Thanks again for looking into this, will definitely be checking by and seeing the progress and/or point out anything if I notice any trends or seemingly significant stats.

Thank you for stopping in! I appreciate any input. It took quite a bit of time to back track and write down everything that I did. And this wasn't even a months worth of work..lol So going back into last season would take a lot of time and effort. I am currently just going to track baseball because it's ML vs a spread. May try hockey or soccer in the future. Soccer may be a good sport to try this with! Would you or anyone else be interested in starting one up. Or possibly we can work together to back track some plays and build up a nice sample size. We could each take a month and just keep going back and see what we come up with.

[McCarthyFam]

Not a good start. Couple come from behind wins. Cold plays start off 0-4

[McCarthyFam]

Well last night certainly wasn't the dogs day. I managed to do well in NBA, so the sting wasn't as bad. only lost $50. hopefully the dogs get rolling today. Plays will be posted around 6:00pm ET

[McCarthyFam]

4/28

2% Twins +126

7% Marlins -124

17% Indians -133
14% Jays +112


leans

Angels
Astros
Giants

[McCarthyFam]

any computer nerds know how to enter this into a spread sheet of some sort so we will have the data recorded and saved for years to come?

[McCarthyFam]

Did well tonight! Went 5-2 for some high profits. Both 5% or less games hit! Will update in morning once I'm on a computer. Definitely made up for yesterday

[trobin31]

[grey area]

Interesting angle you have with this, maybe look at games left off also and why as I see all three favorites won yesterday.

Only went back like four or five days but looked ok

[McCarthyFam]

4/28

2% Twins +126
4% Giants +170

7% Marlins -124

17% Indians -133
14% Jays +112
23% Angels +134
18% Astros +147

4/28 5-2 (+$656)

Season: 81-75 (+$1816) equivalent to over 18 units

[McCarthyFam]

8/29

4% Phillies +172

8% Twins -109
8% Indians -117
7% Marlins +100

12% Brewers +108
11% Rays +129
22% Blue Jays +130
24% Diamondbacks -114

4/29: 5-3 (+$228)

Season: 86-78 (+$2044)

[McCarthyFam]

Interesting angle you have with this, maybe look at games left off also and why as I see all three favorites won yesterday.

Only went back like four or five days but looked ok

I'm trying to avoid betting favorites because long term, its not going to be profitable. I may look back and check to see how the favorites have done as far as the ones that do qualify as a play and filter those out as I would prefer to only bet dogs.

For example the Indians yesterday losing at -133.

[ctine2020]

Looking alright on those first three. I'll try these with you. Simple enough strategy, but there may be some merit here.

[McCarthyFam]

i'll take 2 out of 3 any day. tough loss with twins as they were up a few runs in this one, but we will continue with plays later in the evening.

will end up having 3 or 4 plays by the looks of it.

[McCarthyFam]

Adding diamondbacks

[McCarthyFam]

4/30

leans:
Phillies
Twins

[Optional]

any computer nerds know how to enter this into a spread sheet of some sort so we will have the data recorded and saved for years to come?

Here's a public google spreadsheet setup for you

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Only has first days data entered.

Fill in columns A to F. G an H auto calculate.

Anyone can edit it and enter the picks for you if they want.

[McCarthyFam]

Here's a public google spreadsheet setup for you

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Only has first days data entered.

Fill in columns A to F. G an H auto calculate.

Anyone can edit it and enter the picks for you if they want.

awesome! thank you very much!

[Optional]

When you get the data in there someone might be able to set up some auto calculations to show the different records you want to analyze. Like all plays under 4% or all warm plays or whatever.

[ctine2020]

Took Marlins and Phils in the nightcap, Dbacks slid under the 25% threshold after I stopped checking. Nice to go 3 for 5 on day one!

[McCarthyFam]

When you get the data in there someone might be able to set up some auto calculations to show the different records you want to analyze. Like all plays under 4% or all warm plays or whatever.

That would be awesome! I'm filling in the data now as we speak! I'm not much of a computer person. I've taken excel classes in school, but its been years and i've just simply forgot how to set them all up. Thank you though for taking the time to do this. I appreciate it.

[grey area]

All four favorites left off the streak picks cashed again Was, Bal, Sea, Lad 7-0 last two days

[McCarthyFam]

Took Marlins and Phils in the nightcap, Dbacks slid under the 25% threshold after I stopped checking. Nice to go 3 for 5 on day one!

Yeah you usually have to check back in on them about 10 minutes or so before they start to get the most accurate percentage. Because once some of those earlier games finish, you have people going back in and selecting the late games. Definitely a good start though. I'd like to go back and check last seasons numbers, I just know its going to take a lot of work. Was hoping someone else could help check them out and do like every other month with me.

[McCarthyFam]

grey area, thats interesting. would you be interested in back testing it to the beginning of the season to get a bigger picture?

[ctine2020]

Phils pitcher hasn't won since last August, but the Cards pitcher is making his MLB debut... should be an interesting first game.

[grey area]

grey area, thats interesting. would you be interested in back testing it to the beginning of the season to get a bigger picture?

Are all games that you got here everyday posted the whole list offered on the streak ? then yes I can for as far as you got games provided.... last seven days have gone 20-10

[grey area]

The Jays are the lone game left off today

[McCarthyFam]

Are all games that you got here everyday posted the whole list offered on the streak ? then yes I can for as far as you got games provided.... last seven days have gone 20-10

No, I do not list all of the games posted on the streak. I only select the games where the public favors a team by 75% or more. I then bet on the team that is not favored in that case.

[grey area]

Ok then my last seven day record is off but I see they allow you to go back the days on the site