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I don't update how much I am down very often. This strategy is a very long one. It could be 2 months before a resolution. So, I find it pointless to always advertise how much I am down.
As of right now, I am down 1.54 units, but if I lose my "C" bet, I will be down 7.55 units.
The strategy is pretty easy to understand just read post #1. It should come to you in time.
Yeah baby!!! Let's cash this one!!Originally Posted by keel44
April 27
Parlay 24-C: Brewers with Marlins OVER 7.5 (6.01 to win 17.61) +293 -- This will give me more than enough to reach my goal.
The Mets have averaged 4.4 runs in the last 5 games. The Marlins have averaged 6.4 runs in the last 5 games. Neither pitcher is all that great. 7.5 seems very nice here.
I know the Brewers have been awful, but they shouldn't be this bad. Nelson has been doing great and Marquis is well below average. Nelson has a 1.35 ERA -- 0.70 WHIP -- .161 BAA this season. The Brewers put up 6 last game. Maybe they will do that again against a pretty bad pitcher and a hitter friendly ballpark. +110 sounds real nice.
April 27
Parlay 24-C: Brewers with Marlins OVER 7.5 (6.01 to win 17.61)
This bet is done. I am shocked, but hey, I know how hard it can be to pick these games.
Looking like dead on both accounts. Sometimes it works in your favor that you parlayed as it minimizes risk.We'll get em next time
It is hard on the psyche to keep erroneous assumptions out of the equation when you select which games to bet. My strategy here is to string 3 parlays together in close succession. I need to follow the "hot" trends. Sometimes those trends go against my common logic.
I really wanted to go with the Astros with the Astros OVER again. We will see what happens, but that is what I should've gone with. I thought no, not this match up. It seems I get stuck thinking something should happen. I need to stick with trends. It's tough.
April 28
Parlay 26-A: Astros with Astros OVER 6.5 (0.47 to win 1.52)
Parlay 27-A: Braves with Reds -1.5 (0.47 to win 1.41)
Goddam Braves blows a 9~1 lead.
still have the stros to buy us a trip to the fun "one and one" (B&C) free-throw section of this project...
but that is as heart-breakingly horrendous a beat as you can suffer...faaaaaak
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-28-15 at 09:57 PM.
ridiculously close to having TWO seats in the "nothing to lose/everything to win" round...thanks Braves
but the Astros single-handedly take care of bidness for 'da good guyz...and give Keel at least one of the 'B' tickets he earned
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-29-15 at 12:35 AM.
April 28
Parlay 26-A: Astros with Astros OVER 6.5 (0.47 to win 1.52)
Parlay 27-A: Braves with Reds -1.5 (0.47 to win 1.41)
April 29
Parlay 26-B: Astros with Marlins (1.52 to win 4.56)
That's all for today. I can say the Marlins are hot. They won 6 of 7.
another "for all the marbles" C-bet now in hand...without having to wait/suffer too long--for a nice change...
congrats and good luck, keel...
Last edited by fitguy67; 04-29-15 at 11:26 PM.
Thanks for everyone's support and patience for whoever follows along. I need to be extra smart/careful with this "C" bet. I want to close this out. I like to close out 1 per month if I can.
April 29
Parlay 26-B: Astros with Marlins (1.52 to win 4.56)
Nice hit keel, u r jus warming up
Let's get this (C) bet. 3rd times a charm
April 30
Parlay 26-C: Tigers with Astros (6.08 to win 17.51) -- +288 This still gives me enough to reach my goal
I have to take the Astros. They got me here. There is no thought about it.
The Tigers are a little more "hot" right now than the Royals. Duffy is 1-6 against the Tigers and has not been lights out so far this year. Simon has been lights out so far this year. It is kind of close with this match up, but I need a small dog. I think the Tigers should've been the small favorite. I hope the Tigers offense gets me the win.
April 30
Parlay 26-C: Tigers with Astros (6.08 to win 17.51)
I got another pitcher's performance absolutely wrong.
May 1
Parlay 28-A: Nationals with Rockies (0.48 to win 1.59)
Parlay 29-A: Marlins -1.5 with Astros +1.5 (0.48 to win 1.43)
May 1
Parlay 28-A: Nationals with Rockies (0.48 to win 1.59)
Parlay 29-A: Marlins -1.5 with Astros +1.5 (0.48 to win 1.43)
tough day
May 2
Parlay 30-A: Cubs with Astros with Dodgers (0.50 to win 1.81)
Parlay 31-A: Rangers with Rangers OVER 8.5 (0.50 to win 1.59)
May 2
Parlay 30-A: Cubs with Astros with Dodgers (0.50 to win 1.81)
Parlay 31-A: Rangers with Rangers OVER 8.5 (0.50 to win 1.59)
4/5 correct
May 3
Parlay 31-B: Cardinals with Padres with Marlins (1.59 to win 5.04)
Parlay 32-A: Brewers with Reds (0.51 to win 1.62)
Keel just out of curiosity what's your longest stretch without a C win? Right now we're at 32 and counting.
May 3
Parlay 31-B: Cardinals with Padres with Marlins (1.59 to win 5.04)
Parlay 32-A: Brewers with Reds (0.51 to win 1.62)
I am really blowing it. I should have done something different.
In the NBA, I went 62 attempts, then later on, it went to 70. I was almost out of money. Baseball is a bigger payout, which means slower chase. It could go to 90. I don't want that of course, but baseball teams are streaky. All I have to do is have faith in that and pull the trigger.
*I should have won by now with the Astros alone.
Thank you for your reply Keel. I hope you'll get your C very soon.
Keel buddy I'm just now catching up on your thread. I think we've talked about this before but have you thought about using open parlay for some of these bets? I know it's easier said than done since we are inherently gamblers and like daily outcomes. You are very patient so I could see you doing this and improving your chances.
Or would you consider cross-sport parlays for example MLB & NBA or MLB & NHL etc...
Yes. I have considered it, but I just like to keep things focused. Anybody can do whatever they want. I supply the money management. You can have your own picks. I do appreciate followers, however.
Pressing straight bets is about the exact same as a parlay.
I don't think my book offers open parlays, but indeed that would work great. You know sometimes I don't think I am patient enough. I need to find just the right plays even if it means skipping a day.
May 4
Parlay 33-A: Astros -1.5 with A's OVER 8 (0.52 to win 1.55)
Astros won 14 of 15
A's OVER 12 of 13 (last game was OVER 7.5 when I saw the line)
May 4
Parlay 33-A: Astros -1.5 with A's OVER 8 (0.52 to win 1.55)
Patience
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