[Willie Bee]

Ride D-Train (-125) to win

Game Time: 05/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.touthouse.com


Make the Marlins your play tonight at home in Florida with ace Dontrelle Willis on the mound opposite Brett Tomko and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Florida was the play on Tuesday and will be once again on Wednesday as there is some value in this number despite the recent struggles of Dontrelle Willis.

Florida picked up a big win on Tuesday to snap a three-game skid and will be going for just their third win in the last nine meetings in this series. The Dodgers are 2-3 on this current roadtrip, and while they haven’t lost consecutive road games since the very first two games of the season, they haven’t had Brett Tomko pitching in the second game following a loss yet. Tomko has struggled with inconsistency since holding the Rockies to just one hit in six innings in his first outing this season. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last three starts while losing all three outings including the last two on the road.

Tomko walked six in his last start and has a rough 5/10 strikeout/walk ratio on the road. He has had great success against the Marlins in the past, going 6-1 in nine career starts, but hasn’t faced them since 2005.

Willis is on the cusp of that top tier pitching class and with four consecutive non-quality starts to his credit, he is ready for a rebound. Despite the recent rough stretch, he is still 5-1 on the season with the Marlins going 6-1 in his seven starts on the year. The one big factor that is going his way has been run support as Florida has averaged 7.7 rpg in his seven starts including eight rpg in his last three outings. Willis is 40-18 with a 3.35 ERA in 74 career starts before the All-Star break.

Florida is favored which might come as a surprise with Willis’ recent stat sheet, but it should be and for good reason. Play on all National League favorites in the first half of the season with a moneyline of -110 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season. This situation is 52-15 against the moneyline over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +1.7 rpg over those 67 games.

Expect Willis to come out strong and give the Marlins another victory. Play Florida for one unit.

Play: Marlins -125

[Willie Bee]

Phils, D-Backs to Go Under 8½

Game Time: 05/09/2007 06:40 PM -



In this battle of pitchers in their 40s, the crafty Jamie Moyer has outpitched the hard throwing Randy Johnson so far, but both hurlers should come up big in a low scoring game today.

Is Randy Johnson really a home underdog vs. Jamie Moyer?

Indeed he is, as Moyer has been excellent for the Phillies, posting a 2.85 ERA in six starts with the Under not surprisingly going 5-1 in those games. Moyer, who allowed just two earned runs in his only career state vs. Arizona, has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his six starts this season.

Johnson has not gotten off to nearly as strong a start as Moyer, but the Big Unit has always fared well vs. Philadelphia, going 8-3 with a 2.15 ERA against them. He should have a big game vs. a Diamondback lineup which is hitting .229 and averaging a mere 3.7 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.

The Phillies have not hit left-handed starters all that well either, averaging 3.9 runs while hitting a mediocre .251. Also, last night's low-scoring 3-2 Arizona win brought the record for the Under to a profitable 7-1 in Snakes' last eight games, so look for the same here.

Play: Phillies, Diamondbacks Under 8½

[Willie Bee]

Back Blue Jays (+150) vs Red Sox

Game Time: 05/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Steve Merril
http://www.procappers.com


With the Red Sox struggling on the road at the plate, and starter Daisuke Matsuzaka struggling in his recent starts, back the Blue Jays at home as the underdogs tonight.

The Blue Jays have an excellent chance at snapping their seven-game losing streak tonight as they fit a subset of my Underdog System. They are also facing a Red Sox squad that has been much weaker offensively away from home this year.

Boston entered last night’s game at Toronto averaging just 3.9 runs per game and batting only .244 on the road this season. Highly touted Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka began the season strong, but he has struggled over his past three starts with an awful 8.50 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. Matsuzaka was particularly weak in his most recent outing last Thursday when he permitted seven runs and five walks in just five innings of work versus Seattle.

Play: Blue Jays +150

[Willie Bee]

Oakland & KC Under 8½

Game Time: 05/09/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart


This contest trends to the Under from several angles. Play the Under this evening when Dan Haren and the A's visit Gil Meche and the Royals in Kansas City.

Dan Haren (3-2, 1.75 ERA), the Oakland A's starting hurler for this tilt against the Kansas City Royals, has been a consistent force in his team's pitching rotation this season, recording five quality starts in seven outings.

Gil Meche, the Royals' starter, has been equally staunch posting a 3-1 record along with a 2.23 ERA. With two top quality throwers on the hill today for these teams, a low-scoring affair looks to be on the agenda.

Final Notes & Trends: Oakland is is 12-2 Under when playing against a team with a losing record this season, combining with those opponents for 7.5 RPG. Oakland is 15-3 Under against right-handed starters this season with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 6.7 RPG.

Play: Athletics-Royals Under 8½

[Willie Bee]

Play Marlins (-125) vs Dodgers

Game Time: 05/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose


Though Dontrelle Willis hasn't been lights out, the Marlins still find a way to win with him on the mound. Follow Florida this evening when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles right-hander Brett Tomko is 0-3 on the season with a 4.40 ERA. The Dodgers are 3-8 in Tomko's last 11 starts. LA has lost seven of Tomko's last eight road starts.

Dontrelle Willis, Florida's southpaw for tonight, is 5-1 on the season and the Marlins have won six of his seven starts to date. In Willis's last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record, the Marlins are 6-1.

Play: Marlins -125

[onlooker]

Only one I like out of those, is the Blue Jays. Good luck Mr.Merril.

[bigboydan]

Ride D-Train (-125) to win

Game Time: 05/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.touthouse.com


Make the Marlins your play tonight at home in Florida with ace Dontrelle Willis on the mound opposite Brett Tomko and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Florida was the play on Tuesday and will be once again on Wednesday as there is some value in this number despite the recent struggles of Dontrelle Willis.

Florida picked up a big win on Tuesday to snap a three-game skid and will be going for just their third win in the last nine meetings in this series. The Dodgers are 2-3 on this current roadtrip, and while they haven’t lost consecutive road games since the very first two games of the season, they haven’t had Brett Tomko pitching in the second game following a loss yet. Tomko has struggled with inconsistency since holding the Rockies to just one hit in six innings in his first outing this season. He has a 5.29 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in his last three starts while losing all three outings including the last two on the road.

Tomko walked six in his last start and has a rough 5/10 strikeout/walk ratio on the road. He has had great success against the Marlins in the past, going 6-1 in nine career starts, but hasn’t faced them since 2005.

Willis is on the cusp of that top tier pitching class and with four consecutive non-quality starts to his credit, he is ready for a rebound. Despite the recent rough stretch, he is still 5-1 on the season with the Marlins going 6-1 in his seven starts on the year. The one big factor that is going his way has been run support as Florida has averaged 7.7 rpg in his seven starts including eight rpg in his last three outings. Willis is 40-18 with a 3.35 ERA in 74 career starts before the All-Star break.

Florida is favored which might come as a surprise with Willis’ recent stat sheet, but it should be and for good reason. Play on all National League favorites in the first half of the season with a moneyline of -110 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season. This situation is 52-15 against the moneyline over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +1.7 rpg over those 67 games.

Expect Willis to come out strong and give the Marlins another victory. Play Florida for one unit.

Play: Marlins -125

I disagree Mr.Fargo. I feel there is much value with the Dodgers today even despite Tomko being on the hill today.

[rjt721]

I like the OAK/KC under.

[bigboydan]

Back Blue Jays (+150) vs Red Sox

Game Time: 05/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Steve Merril
http://www.procappers.com


With the Red Sox struggling on the road at the plate, and starter Daisuke Matsuzaka struggling in his recent starts, back the Blue Jays at home as the underdogs tonight.

The Blue Jays have an excellent chance at snapping their seven-game losing streak tonight as they fit a subset of my Underdog System. They are also facing a Red Sox squad that has been much weaker offensively away from home this year.

Boston entered last night’s game at Toronto averaging just 3.9 runs per game and batting only .244 on the road this season. Highly touted Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka began the season strong, but he has struggled over his past three starts with an awful 8.50 ERA and 1.556 WHIP. Matsuzaka was particularly weak in his most recent outing last Thursday when he permitted seven runs and five walks in just five innings of work versus Seattle.

Play: Blue Jays +150

I agree with this play Mr.Merril. I feel theres some decent value with the Jays tonight.