Season Profit Margin: 7-10 [-3.15]
Tech wins. Time to start getting my shit together here. End of the season isn't that far away and then it's the big time with the postseason. Will be looking for tomorrow with lines already up surprisingly. Some good ACC and SEC series continuing.
4.25.15
Georgia +190 Georgia finishes a series with Auburn with the Tigers taking the 1st two of the set. Auburn is bypassing their ace for the finale of the series to give him extra rest and that means this piching match-up is more of a toss-up. UGA goes with Lawlor, their 2nd best starter who has a 3.11 ERA for the season, 3.72 in SEC play. Auburn counters with Rentz who has a 2.82 ERA on the season, but is slightly over 4.00 in SEC play. He's also barely pitched since SEC play began with just 6+ innings of work. This is his 5th start of the season and he is hittable with a .262 BAA. The offenses are almost even in run production despite Auburn batting about 30 pts better than Georgia. Neither team is liekly going anywhere in the postseason, but they can get to the SEC tournament by finishing in the Top 12. Right now both are right on the edge with the Bulldogs needing this much more as of today. If Lawlor gives them some good innings and UGA can strike off Rentz early, I think UGA has a chance to be in the mix for a W to avoid the sweep.
Texas A&M +170 It's been #1 against #2 this weekend with LSU taking the first two in this series. The Tigers have extended their SEC lead in the West over A&M to two games. That makes this an extremely important game for A&M if they are going to stay with LSU down the stretch. A&M should not be feeling down despite losing the 1st two games as they led both games, but yacked up leads late. These teams remain your top two offenses, neck-to-neck in conference play with LSU having scored six runs more than A&M on the season with A&M sporting a .317 team BA to .309 for LSU. Both teams can rake. LSU's pitching has been marginally better with a 3.49 ERA to A&M's 3.77 in conference play. The Aggies put Simonds on the hill today with his miniscule 0.96 ERA. This will be his 5th start with most of his work out of the pen. LSU goes with Austin Bain who is 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA. This will be Bain's third start, so both teams will be prepped to give their bullpens a work out if needed. Quality arms in both pens, but so far it's been LSU with the edge. For me though, I think the inflated price on LSU gives you a good try on A&M at this price. These teams with this pitching match-up are much closer to a 50-50 call, so good plus money on A&M makes sense. Game was slated to start at 1:00pm CT, but will be delayed due to rain. Supposed to announce a new start time within the hour. From the forecast, it looks to me like this won't be played until early this evening when the storms pass.
A&M wins 6-2. Great price on this one. Also appears that ublic: plays where these 5Dimes lines go up big on fairly even match-ups, the public loses. LSU I think was -175 or so to open on 5D and was -210 or -215 when I booked the +170.
4.26.15
Baylor -120 Two teams not going anywhere in the Big 12 meet in their series finale. I like Baylor here as they start a regular member of their rotation in lefty Daniel Castano. He is a fighter, but not overly great. He has a 3.49 ERA, a .288 BAA and some walk issues at times. He does have the experience edge though as K-State is putting Bradon Erickson out for his 1st career start. The JUCO transfer has struggled to adapt to D1 with a 5.33 ERA out of State's bullpen. He has a .323 BAA. Neither offense is overwhelming with both batting just under .260 on the season. K-State has been better at plating runs with 31 more scored. Baylor has traditionally dominated K-State in Waco with a 26-5 record all-time. If Castano gives them a good start and they can jump on any jitters that Erickson has, they should have a shot to get the W and win the weekend series.
4.30.15
Arkansas -145 The Razorbacks are on a roll heading to Hoover to battle Alabama. Arkansas has won 8 of their last 10 in SEC play, including an impressive road series win against Texas A&M. Bama continues to struggle in conference play, losing a weekend series to Ole Miss which was on the heels of a series road loss to Missouri. Both teams have been steady at the plate in SEC play with the Hogs scoring ten more runs, batting .274 compared to .260 for the Tide. Both teams have scuffled in the pitching department with Arkansas lit up for a 5.23 team ERA in league games and Bama at 4.73. Arkansas starter Trey Killian has been brutal with a 6.20 ERA in SEC play, not that far off his 5.98 ERA overall. He's labored in his last few starts with high pitch counts and too many hits against him. It's been a sharp contrast to his sophomore campaign in 2014 when he had a 2.30 ERA in 14 starts. He had battled tendonitis, but seemed over it with a strong SEC start. Over his last twostarts though, he has given up 4 ER in 5.1 IP against Miss State and 11 ER in 4.2 IP against A&M. He had a solid start against Kentucky before those two games, but also surrendered 5 runs in 6 IP against Auburn before that. Guilbeau goes for Bama, the lefty has been decent in SEC play with a 4.38 ERA. Walks are a major issue for him with 34 in 66 IP and 28 of those coming in 7 league starts. That could be a problem against a pretty patient Arkansas lineup. He's still given his team better starts more often than not as he battles into the 5th or 6th inning. The two starters here are big keys. While Killian has been ineffective lately, this Bama squad has been wildly inconsistent on offense. On top of that, they have also struggled at their makeshift home in Hoover (Home of the SEC Tournament0 at 3-6 while their own stadium is being renovated. Arkansas seems to have it all going in the right direction, at the right time. They close with a lot of the lower tier teams in the SEC, so they need to win the games they should win to continue to build their resume and maybe stick around in the division race where they still trail A&M and LSU.
5.1.15
Ohio State +160
Illinois is on the road against Ohio State in a huge Big 10 series. The 1st place Illini are 1.5 games up on OSU and just 0.5 game up on Iowa, so this will be a huge series. The Illini trot out an absolute stud in lefty Kevin Duchene tonight. He is 7-1 with 0.74 ERA in nine starts. He doesn't walk anyone and he's struck out more than a better per innings with a .238 BAA. In conference play, his ERA matches his season #, but his BAA is much higher at .290. He obviously can pitch out of trouble. Tanner Tully takes the ball for the Buckeyes. He's been solid, but he's not the overpowering force Duchene has been. Tully has a 2.76 ERA and a .273 BAA. He does give up hits, 70 in 65 IP but has been able to work around them. He's just a pitcher's pitcher. He's been great in Big 10 play with a 2.08 ERA and .222 BAA. Illinois has the advantage on offense as well with a league leading 102 runs scored in Big 10 play. They bat .294 as a team in conference action, while OSU sits at .270 with 78 runs scored. The Buckeyes can be hell on the bashpaths though as they lead with 27 steals in 15 Big 10 games. Illinois is riding an 18 game win streak into this one, but in truth their streak has been padded by wins against the league's three worst teams and a middling Indiana club. This will be their toughest test since an early March trek to Stillwater, OK where they beat a good Oklahoma State club two out of three. They can definitely ball, but I think at home Ohio State should be amped up. They have beaten a top five team in Louisville and won a pair on the road against another Top 25 team in Nebraska in winning eight of their last nine. Both teams have quality bullpen arms, so this likely is going to be a tight series with some very close games. There's just honestly not a lot to separate these two, so I think the Buckeyes give you some value with this number even if Duchene has been a stud this season and hard to crack. If they get runners on-base, I think the Buckeyes running game will be a big key.
5.2.15
South Carolina -120 Gamecocks hosting Auburn. SC scored a massive win yesterday, busting up Auburn's win streak with a 10-1 win. The Gamecocks still amazingly might have a shot at making a Regional if they can get hot over the final weeks. This is the "Easiest" of the series they have left with A&M and LSU to follow. SC seem to just have Auburn's number, having beaten them now in 10 of the last 11. SC goes with Taylor Widener today as they are shaking things up to try and find some good pitching match-ups. This is just his 2nd start of the season. He's got a 3.80 ERA and a .264 BAA. He's got good stuff with 34 Ks in just 23.2 IP. Walks can be an issue with 16 on the season. Auburn counters with Rocky McCord who has a 3.58 ERA and a .268 BAA. Walks are also a problem for him with 30 in 60.1 IP. This looks like a bullpen game for both teams as both have ERAs north of 5.00 in league play. While Auburn does have better #s batting average wise, SC has actually done a much better job plating runs in SEC play with 107 to 91 for Auburn.
Season Profit Margin: 9-14 [-4.85] I have done a great job picking teams whose bullpens blow chunks. South Carolina a perfect example yesterday, but you get what you bet. 2-0 lead and as soon as their starter goes out, the bullpen gets smoked to turn that into a 6-2 loss in three innings.
5.3.15
Illinois -125 This team is amazing right now with 20 straight wins. That includes yesterday's comeback stunner against Ohio State to take the series with a 6-5 win. I don't see the Illini letting up today. John Kravetz gets the start for Illinois. He is 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA in Big 10 play. He will give up some hits with a .295 BAA. Ryan Riga, the lefty, is up for the Buckeyes. The interesting thing here is he has a 1.95 ERA in Big 10 play in five starts. He had a lull a few starts back with successive poor starts against also-rans Penn State and Northwestern. Both guys throw strikes and don't like to walk batters, so defense could again be key. Ohio State had a couple of key errors yesterday that killed them. Sometimes things just go the way of a team on a win streak. Yesterday, that was the case for Illinois. Ohio State may talk well about putting that game behind them, but I think it was a huge disappointment especially after they were crushed in the opener of the series. Riding the hot team in this one.
5.4.15
Clemson +150 The public has pushed this price out as Louisville opened a -140 favorite and is now -180. I've been going against this move more often than not when the match-ups dictate a more even game than the price. Start with the pitching match-up tonight. Louisville sends out lefty Josh Rogers, while Clemson counters with senior righty Jake Long who will be making just his 4th start. In ACC play, Rogers has been brilliant with a 5-0 mark with a 1.24 ERA. He doesn't walk people and pitches to contact with just 8 walks in 40+ conference innings pitched. This is Long's first ACC start this season. In 7 IP in relief in the ACC, he has not surrendered a run. That's obviously going to be put to the test here. These two teams rank 3rd & 4th in team BAA with the Cards at .282 and Clemson at .272. Clemson has scored 16 more runs, but played two more games so they're about even in run production. The Cards as always have a great running game with 62 steals. Clemson has looked anything but overmatched this weekend in hosting the #2 team in the nation as they beat up a great pitcher in Funkhouser on Friday for five runs in route to a 9-1 thrashing of the Cards. They battled Louisville even though six yesterday before the Cards got to Zack Erwin, eventually hanging on for a 5-3 win to even the series. The key obviously is getting a quality start from Long. If Clemson goes to the pen early, this game is over. Their pen has some solid arms, but Louisville's is more versatile and deep and hard to beat if you're trying to come from behind. This game is massive for Clemson as they continue to jockey for position in the muddy middle of the ACC. Louisiville has been the class of the conference at 20-3 and has yet to lose a conferene series. Obviously they don't want to lose, but they are going to the postseason. Clemson is in decent shape, but only 1.5 separates the 3rd position from the 6th position in the Atlantic. Clemson's final series comes at Florida State, so a win tonight would be large in keeping them out of the "play-in" game mix for the ACC tournament. FSU has been very difficult to beat at home, so Clemson likely would be fortunate to grab one win next weekend.
5.13.15
Louisville -125
A great rivalry resumes in Louisville tonight as the Cards host Vanderbilt. Both teams turn to freshman for this midweek match-up. Louisville goes with R Kade McClure, while Vandy counters with L Ryan Johnson. Johnson's numbers look better on paper with a 1.94 ERA/.214 BAA comapred to 3.08/.213BAA for McClure. Both are making their 4th starts of the year with both mostly used out of the bullpen for a majority of the season. As the line indicates, these two teams and pitchers are evenly matched throughout. Louisville gets the slight nod playing at home, but I also like their bullpen in this spot. The Cards are 6th in D1 with a 2.52 team ERA. Vanderbilt is very good at 3.05. Vandy though is on a bit of a slide to end the regular season as they were beaten two of three at home by Florida and are just 3-3 in their last six overall. While they are a good road team at 10-6, they have only played a couple of midweek games on the road, going 1-1. That includes last week's 4-1 loss to Belmont.
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ublic: plays where these 5Dimes lines go up big on fairly even match-ups, the public loses. LSU I think was -175 or so to open on 5D and was -210 or -215 when I booked the +170.
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