[kayvebear]

OK, final day of Yankees red sox and I want to open a discussion thread as I am a tiny bit confused. This series has been very profitable to me so far.

On friday, I had 4 units on the over, 3 units on the yankees alone scoring over, and 2 units on the yankees winning. +5 units (sox won)

Yesterday I nailed it, with 4 units on the over, 3 units on the red sox -155 and 1 unit on the red sox alone scoring over +8 units

Now I am confused - and I wanna hear some thoughts.

DICE-K debuts against the yankees. He should pitch great. I think he will be fired up and focussed. simultaneously I see him giving up 2-4 runs minimum, as he's never pitched against hitters like this in his entire life. Also, DICE-K has gotten literally 0 run support from the Red Sox, which makes me nervous as a longer term red sox fan. This creates a predicament. The red sox are facing a pitcher coming from the minors, with not a single pitch of major league practice under his belt. in all reality, this guy should get shelled to the moon, but sometimes those youngins can really throw a great game looking for their fame. Combine that with the sox lack of support for dice-k, and the relaxation of winning the first two against your best enemy, and they could easily crap the bed. needless to say I am confused, but here is what I am thinknig... the whole series in advance, I said OVER every single game. I have been watching the lines closely and now every person and their mother is bet on the OVER.... makes me really like the UNDER 10.5 just to be a contrarian. Everyone in the world thinking Red Sox victory too, and even as a Sox fan I am now slightly considering the+172nyy money line ...

ok, early in the morning. plenty of time. thoughts?

[ShowMeDaMoney]

I thought you were a Red Sox fan? Even at +172 I would have a very hard time laying anything on the Yankees. You just don't know what you are going to get from their starter, and their pen is tired. Dice-K goes deep into the game I say, having a great outting. Are the Yanks gonna hit him? Obviously... they hit everyone. Pitcher for pitcher, I just can not even consider making a play against the Red Sox.

In april, and at the start of the season in general, we make plays based on STARTING PITCHING, and then as the year gets older, we consider RELIEF PITCHING more. Red Sox have the edge in both categories.

[kayvebear]

I am agreed almost entirely on your analysis - thats why I have to lay off the game most likely. Sox hypothetically should light NYY starter up today, but simulatenously like I said above they have given matsuzaka a total of 1-2 runs in support in 3 outings I believe which is just awful. Reminds me david wells a few yrs back,. great pitcher, 0 run support. losing record.

Considering taking under on the gam total 10.5, and over on the sox team line. still thinking.

[capitalist pig]

Im going the other way, taking the yanks @ +167 tonight.

later

[zootiehead]

Man. If the Sox sweep the Yanks we'll be hearing from The Boss tomorrow.

[kayvebear]

Im bet all around

5 units on red sox scoring 5.5+ runs
4 units on NYY scoring 4+ runs
2 units on SOX winning -1.5

go baseball!

[bigboydan]

The problem I have taking the Yankees tonight is the Posada factor. He's hurt right now, and that could be a big factor in a game of this magnitude. You have a rookie pitcher and Nieves catching, and to me thats not a good thing at all even despite that Yankee lineup.

[kayvebear]

Damon is out also I believe - and matsuzaka should come out fired up.. my opinion is changing. SOX blowout, yankees put up 4 runs or so. final score, 7/4 red sox.

[r2d2]

i look at this game tonight as a "law of averages" factor for Dice K. He has pitched way too well his first three outings to only be 1 - 2. he will get run support tonight, and i think he will go 7 -8 innings and only allow a run or two. should be fun to watch his innaguartion into the rivarly. GO SOX!

[EaglesPhan36]

Damon is listed as the leadoff hitter. I'm taking NY at +155. Just going with history in that the BoSox haven't swept NY at Fenway in 16 years.

Also - this is the best lineup by far that Dice-K will have faced. TOR, SEA & KC aren't exactly murderer's row.

[BuddyBear]

I like BOS and yes -156 is not cheap but consider the opening line of -180 and you see some value there and the public backing a dog which is rare. Outside of A-Rod, nobody in that lineup should scare Dice-k. Throw in the fact that none of the Yankees have seen him a major advantage and that he is no rookie. He's pitched in big situations before. I like BOS tonight....

[The HG]

Sox hypothetically should light NYY starter up today

Not necessarily at all, crafty rookie lefties often do very well when they first arrive in the majors, and Boston has been particularly vulnerable to that recently. And Wright was dominant in the minors, he's not someone who wasn't ready to move up as some guys are when their big league team has multiple injuries.

[kayvebear]

i hope for my sake your wrong ;ppp GO SOX big #'s from both teams, sox victory. cmon baby pay papa

[kayvebear]

Not necessarily at all, crafty rookie lefties often do very well when they first arrive in the majors, and Boston has been particularly vulnerable to that recently. And Wright was dominant in the minors, he's not someone who wasn't ready to move up as some guys are when their big league team has multiple injuries.

4 back to back home runs and pulled after the 3rd inning.

[kayvebear]

please dear god hold on to this 7-5 lead red sox and you have once again paid me ****ing huge for the 3rd time this week. please god.

[BuddyBear]

**** 7-6!

Congrats KB on a 9 unit win on the first two bets....let's see if BOS can get some insurance!

[The HG]

Wow great picking Kayve, congrats.

[kayvebear]

big big win gentleman ... and thank you. It was a dumb bet as I did it on reckless emotion .. but it came in. I'm cashing out 90% or so of my account tomorrow a.m (5dimes gives one free monday 2night fedex a month) ... paying off some ************. made a teency bit over 1000% off my initial deposit in 6 days, and if I can't cash that out then I am an absolute idiot. I will post full weeks standing later tonight.

much love

[kayvebear]

I also played a couple more bets that i didn't post earlier out of drunkness that came in on this game. Ended up having an extra bit of cash in the account and made these plays

3.2 units on red sox money line -166
1 unit parlay red sox ml/over 10.5

both came in, parlay paid 202%.

[r2d2]

all i got to say is Mike Lowell is da man. I hope this game brings Manny out of his slump. And big papi, not trying to tell you how to hit brother, but take a first pitch once in a while. dude was behind in the count alot last night. GO SOX!

[Tchocky]

You're right about Dice K not getting much run support from his teammates. The Red Sox were only averaging 1.7 runs for Dice K in his last 3 games.