BAL/TB over is interesting. I think I like it, especially with the number coming down. TB is 10-2 to the over so far this year, including 4-0 at home. Both starters are obviously capable of shut-down games, and if that happens, a 3-2 game is very possible. But they also both come with high volatility, and also both have a tendency to not go deep into games. If one has a bad day, or if both go out early, the over is a solid play. In fact, if one has a shut down game and the other has a bad game, and the score is like 5-0 after 6 or something like that, the losing team might bring in back of the pen guys, and one team could easily get to 8 all by themselves that way. I agree with the pick, I think there's a little value there.
I forgot to add, though, on the other side, Bedard has pitched very well in his career at Tropicana, and Baltimore has had problems with quality lefties for a few years now. So those are two factors to consider in the opposite direction.
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My two plays for today, Wednesday, April 18, 2007
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