1. #1
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    Want a lock tomorrow - take Detroit Tigers (-117 currently)

    Chris Young's ERA is 3.20.
    His X-FIP is 5.15 - that is the WORST in baseball among qualified starters.

    Basically means he is due for a massive regression.

    Now on the other side you got Robbie Ray - who is not very good but the Mariners havent seen him this year. Plus, they cant hit in general but are really bad vs LHP.

    I expect the Tigers to wake up after getting behind the Royals and finish strong. Cant see them losing this series tomorrow.

    Load up on the Tigers. Lot of people were expecting the Tigers to make it to the World Series a few weeks ago. What happened since then? Nothing. They just went in a slump and now everyone is betting against them. Be smart, get back on em.

    TIGERS!

  2. #2
    agendaman
    agendaman's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-01-11
    Posts: 3,660
    Betpoints: 14022

    auto-fade

  3. #3
    jtoler
    jtoler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-13
    Posts: 30,967
    Betpoints: 6337

    Did you say lock...SBR poster's win percentage on threads with the word lock in the title from Oct. 2009- July 2014 are currently at a paltry 16.4%.

  4. #4
    mcdonae101
    mcdonae101's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-02-14
    Posts: 3,646
    Betpoints: 2617

    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    Chris Young's ERA is 3.20.
    His X-FIP is 5.15 - that is the WORST in baseball among qualified starters.

    Basically means he is due for a massive regression.

    Now on the other side you got Robbie Ray - who is not very good but the Mariners havent seen him this year. Plus, they cant hit in general but are really bad vs LHP.

    I expect the Tigers to wake up after getting behind the Royals and finish strong. Cant see them losing this series tomorrow.

    Load up on the Tigers. Lot of people were expecting the Tigers to make it to the World Series a few weeks ago. What happened since then? Nothing. They just went in a slump and now everyone is betting against them. Be smart, get back on em.

    TIGERS!
    There must have been a lot of idiots then, anyone who said Detroit going to World Series is a fuking idiot. Their bullpen is atrocious, they likely don't even make postseason

  5. #5
    carll
    carll's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-12-14
    Posts: 755

    Seattle wins thanks

  6. #6
    labones00
    Bo knows your sister
    labones00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 3717

    Seattle is one of my top two plays for today
    at least one of us will be winning! BOL

  7. #7
    whtsox13
    Update your status
    whtsox13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-12
    Posts: 1,401
    Betpoints: 13

    Mariners vs LHP = 25W-16L. That's really bad?

  8. #8
    SBRMAN23
    Be humble sit down
    SBRMAN23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-11
    Posts: 6,901
    Betpoints: 1454

    Interesting record they have the lowest on base percentage vs lefties in whole Al but winning record wtf lol hmm don't know which way to lean game a toss up rather play the under Bol

  9. #9
    Pauulzcappin
    Pauulzcappin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-23-10
    Posts: 20,295
    Betpoints: 568

    Quote Originally Posted by SBRMAN23 View Post
    Interesting record they have the lowest on base percentage vs lefties in whole Al but winning record wtf lol hmm don't know which way to lean game a toss up rather play the under Bol
    The very positive record against lefties is pretty obvious to me which is what defines their team as whole: Their pitching carries the team.

  10. #10
    SBRMAN23
    Be humble sit down
    SBRMAN23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-11
    Posts: 6,901
    Betpoints: 1454

    Even more reason to like the under haven't pulled the trigger yet

  11. #11
    Pauulzcappin
    Pauulzcappin's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-23-10
    Posts: 20,295
    Betpoints: 568

    Small sample size but it looks like only Torii Hunter can hit Chris Young

  12. #12
    SBRMAN23
    Be humble sit down
    SBRMAN23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-07-11
    Posts: 6,901
    Betpoints: 1454

    And hunter out of lineup today

  13. #13
    KRIT
    KRIT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-14
    Posts: 12,855
    Betpoints: 20376

    1-0 Ms. Robbie Ray is horrible. Can't believe they gave up Fister for him.

  14. #14
    Simon Gruber
    scientific thought and reasoning
    Simon Gruber's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 2,342
    Betpoints: 31

    Just. Take. Him. Out.

  15. #15
    KRIT
    KRIT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-11-14
    Posts: 12,855
    Betpoints: 20376

    Quote Originally Posted by Simon Gruber View Post
    Just. Take. Him. Out.
    Bullpen isn't much of an upgrade. Detroit is fukked here. I do think Tigers will get to Chris Young though.

  16. #16
    labones00
    Bo knows your sister
    labones00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 3717

    This might be solid advice ...just like that jjgold guy telling everyone to take the Dodgers last night. Stop making this claims if you can't back it up with some stats or an angle

  17. #17
    Simon Gruber
    scientific thought and reasoning
    Simon Gruber's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 2,342
    Betpoints: 31

    Quote Originally Posted by KRIT View Post
    Bullpen isn't much of an upgrade. Detroit is fukked here. I do think Tigers will get to Chris Young though.
    Some of these teams really need at least one decent long reliever. Ray had 1.47 WHIP in AAA. What piece of fvcking shit decided that this loser deserved another chance over Verhagen?

  18. #18
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by labones00 View Post
    This might be solid advice ...just like that jjgold guy telling everyone to take the Dodgers last night. Stop making this claims if you can't back it up with some stats or an angle
    Right...ppl post so much losers on here that I feel the books do it to deter winners lmao

  19. #19
    ZIPPER HEAD
    ZIPPER HEAD's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-13
    Posts: 2,592
    Betpoints: 5106

    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    Chris Young's ERA is 3.20.
    His X-FIP is 5.15 - that is the WORST in baseball among qualified starters.

    Basically means he is due for a massive regression.

    Now on the other side you got Robbie Ray - who is not very good but the Mariners havent seen him this year. Plus, they cant hit in general but are really bad vs LHP.

    I expect the Tigers to wake up after getting behind the Royals and finish strong. Cant see them losing this series tomorrow.

    Load up on the Tigers. Lot of people were expecting the Tigers to make it to the World Series a few weeks ago. What happened since then? Nothing. They just went in a slump and now everyone is betting against them. Be smart, get back on em.

    TIGERS!
    Detroit is never a lock young grasshopper. Is this your first day betting mlb

  20. #20
    labones00
    Bo knows your sister
    labones00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 3717

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Right...ppl post so much losers on here that I feel the books do it to deter winners lmao
    It's really simple, make your own picks, do your own research. If you chose to "tail" people in here then you are taking all the control out of betting. It's pretty obvious the majority of people in this forum are not very good at betting on baseball. The books are not sending people into these forums to mess people up lol. It's typical behavior for our society, do none of the work and somehow get paid off big. Ain't that easy

  21. #21
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by labones00 View Post
    It's really simple, make your own picks, do your own research. If you chose to "tail" people in here then you are taking all the control out of betting. It's pretty obvious the majority of people in this forum are not very good at betting on baseball. The books are not sending people into these forums to mess people up lol. It's typical behavior for our society, do none of the work and somehow get paid off big. Ain't that easy
    I wasnt saying the books are infact doing that, I was just exaggerating how much losing picks people post and claim them to be locks

    I was agreeing with you. People just post picks, no reasoning and get upset when you question then in order to create discussion. They just want you to tail or shut up lol. And then it loses lol.

  22. #22
    LtDarsh
    LtDarsh's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-14-13
    Posts: 1,440
    Betpoints: 4029

    looking real good

  23. #23
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,470
    Betpoints: 13194

    Man, Detroit ??? WTF is wrong with them ?????

  24. #24
    Mikail
    Fader of GOY'S
    Mikail's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-19-09
    Posts: 21,689


  25. #25
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    Sorry fellas. Chris Young is horrible. The stats back it up. I cant explain how he hasnt given up way more runs than he has this year. I'm going to fade and martingale him until I get my money back.

    Tigers, at home, one of the best offenses in the league going against the garbage that is Chris Young. At less than -120. Thats good value. Sometimes even good bets dont win.

  26. #26
    labones00
    Bo knows your sister
    labones00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 3717

    No need to be sorry, like I said the Mariners were one of my top plays of the day. Did you even look at Seattle's record vs. lefties? (26-16) and their performance in day games (23-16) not to mention they are 8-2 in their last 10 games....

  27. #27
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    Sorry fellas. Chris Young is horrible. The stats back it up. I cant explain how he hasnt given up way more runs than he has this year. I'm going to fade and martingale him until I get my money back.

    Tigers, at home, one of the best offenses in the league going against the garbage that is Chris Young. At less than -120. Thats good value. Sometimes even good bets dont win.
    But if Chris Young is garbage, what is Robbie Ray? Robbie Ray -120 vs Chris Young made sense? Thats a good bet?

  28. #28
    Plaza23
    Plaza23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-13
    Posts: 7,392
    Betpoints: 13787

    Robbie Ray isn't very good but he was going against the worst offense vs left handers in the league. Chris Young, due for a massive regression, going against one of the best offenses.

    I like that matchup. It lost. Whatever. Not going to defend my reasoning other than fading Chris young from here on out. His type of luck with era being way under xfip never lasts an entire year. Seemed its correct itself vs the tigers but it didnt. Oh well.

  29. #29
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,377
    Betpoints: 18710

    Im not bashing you, or the pick or anything...and I can see how you could like the pick, but lock...either way, lets get the next pick

  30. #30
    labones00
    Bo knows your sister
    labones00's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-20-12
    Posts: 1,555
    Betpoints: 3717

    I'm just asking what information you looked at besides the starting pitcher(s)...?

Top