[The HG]

CIN/Cubs – The Cubs’ offense hasn’t yet been as powerful as it was expected to be, or may later be, despite Lee and Ramirez getting off to strong starts. The problem is that the leadoff guys, Soriano and Jones, have gotten off to slow starts. With Cubs’ starter Zambrano off to his usual rocky start in April, Cincinnati, getting an offensive and emotional boost from Josh Hamilton, and with dependable Aaron Harang starting, probably has value as a substantial dog here. Cincinnati does not field the most solid of lineups, with Encarnacion anchoring the 4-hole, but they can be productive in fits and starts, and Harang should keep them in the game down to the end.

SF/PITT – Pittsburgh is off of a tough sweep at the hands of St. Louis, where their offense somewhat inexplicably shut down. But their offense still should be at least reasonable this year, and this couldn’t be a better spot for it to bounce back.

San Francisco starter Russ Ortiz may in fact be able to pitch at a major league level this year, but he will almost certainly never be any better than mediocre, and Pittsburgh should be able to get to him for at least a few runs in this game. San Francisco, on the other hand, has an aging and very suspect offense, and Zach Duke, who seems to be regaining his effectiveness that disappeared last year, and who is more of a winning pitcher at home, should be able to hold the San Francisco offense down. All signs point to a strong start by Duke, and a capable showing by the Pittsburgh offense, which probably give value to Pittsburgh even as a good-sized favorite.

Yankees/OAK – Igawa had a terrible first start in the majors, but he has decent talent overall, and this start should be better for him. Oakland is an easier place to pitch, and he had a solid spring. It’s far from the time to write him off.

Oakland’s starter Haren is also solid, and knows how to pitch in his home park. Haren has always pitched well against the Yankees, and he should have another decent start here. With both starters likely to have decent outings, there is probably value with the under at 9.5, as there is a good chance the game could squeeze under in the 7-9 range.

[BuddyBear]

what do you think of Sheets tonight Gach?

[bigboydan]

I think Pitt is the way to go in that game today.

I'll tell ya the one game that stood out to me like a sore thumb today was Toronto though. I hate laying chalk period especially this much of it. However, after capping this game it shows a clear advantage for the Blue Jays in this spot.

[The HG]

I agree with you BBD, I think Toronto is the right side. I don't think there's a ton of value, but I do think there's a little, I'll probably bet it at some point.

BuddyBear, I think Sheets is going to throw a good game tonight, but I also think there's value with STL. I bet them at +111, but the line is going down. I wouldn't take them if it goes below +100. There's also probably an under/Stl correlation here. In general, there's a very small correlation between unders and home team wins anyway, and in a game like this, it will be stronger. Because if the game goes under, it means the Stl pitching did ok, and the starting pitching discrepancy is what is responsible for Mil being a road fave. So an under/Stl parlay probably compounds the value of each.