[sballen]

In scouring the various lines I believe I've run into a solid +ev play purely using the books odds against each other to determine a +ev play. Hear me out and someone chime in if I'm wrong. Here it goes;

My book has the wager of "will there be a run in the first inning" at yes +135 and no at -165. Now removing the juice would make it +/-150 which implies a yes at 40% and no at 60%. Now let's extrapolate that data, assuming there's a 40% chance of scoring, that would mean there's a 77.46% chance of no score in each the top and bottom inning (thus making the odds of no score for the whole inning at 60%, or -150). So now we know that the chances of a team scoring in the top/bottom of the 1st inning is 77.46% respectively, note that the bet is a score in the top or bet for a score in the bottom, each being its own separate bet (this assumes each lineup has an equal chance of scoring, which my books gives the same payout for run scored in top vs bottom so we'll use that assumption).

Now let's look at my books odds for scoring a run in the top of the 1st: yes is at +250 and no is at -325. Note that the odds r the same for top or bottom so I won't list the bottom. Now knowing that there's a 77.46% chance on no score in the top, the payout should be -344. THUS TAKING THE NO AT -325 IS A +EV PLAY. From my experience, it's very atypical to find guaranteed +ev plays just using your sports odds for one bet to your benefit on another. Clearly this doesn't guarantee a win, and I personally hate laying this kind of juice, HOWEVER, I will always take a +ev play if I know for a fact it's +ev and this one is. I've already taken this wager so cheers if anyone tails.

[sballen]

Obviously I should use the caveat that we are assuming that the 60%/40% chance of scoring in the first inning is indeed accurate. If the chances of scoring are higher than 40% that would most likely make the play lose its value. Any odds of scoring being below 40% only increase the value for this +ev play.

[sballen]

Winner winner already (I took the top of first). BOL all if you elected to take the bottom of the first.