Please Fade my crappy picks program. [Input Appreciated]
Hello all,
After years of dismal betting on baseball, I decided to create an objective computer program to analyze stats and make picks for me. I have come to the conclusion that either I am cursed to have bad luck, baseball is completely unpredictable, or my computer program is complete crap, and needs refinement ( although I have been tinkering with it for a while).
My program works by gathering stats likes win/loss, streak, pitcher ERA, win/loss, splits stats etc... and assigns points to them. It will then analyzethe current odds for the game, and determine if there is an advantage for the team. Most of the time that odds and probably are very close, but if there is more than 15-20% chance (according to the program) then it is upgraded to a graded bet.
Unfortunately I have been wrong most of the time, but the good news is that if you fade my picks, then it appears to be profitable. I have about 2 weeks worth of picks, so maybe this is just a slump in the system, but it is interesting none the less.
Anyways check out my site http://profatpicks.appspot.com/. I would appreciate any feedback into why the stats I used cannot predict the outcomes more accurately.