[great owl]

I know it’s tempting to play Boston as a dog with Lester, and with Mad Max Scherzer not in great form lately, but Sox have just been too crappy on the road (12-16, including 0-4 on current trip, staying w/in one run in just one of the 4), and game 2 of a series, in which Det is 15-4 so far TY (incl 7-2 after a win), has been Tigers’ best game of a series all season, by far.I am trying to capitalize on the recent offensive struggles of both teams, particularly Det vs LHPs, by playing below two picks:
Det team total Under 4 runs (-130 odds)) for 3 units

5 innings Under 4 runs (-115 odds) for 3 units

Support for above two Under picks – Det averaging just 3.4 rpg in L10 games, incl 2.4 in the ones vs LHPs, and even worse in L5 games (4 of which were at home)- just 2.8 rpg, incl 2.5 against LHPs. And Lester has handled Det’s line-up very well in his L4 starts against them (final 3 LY and one TY), in which Det has averaged just 1.5 rpg (with 3 one run outputs, incl TY at Fenway, and one 3 run output, in ALCS LY in Det).Most bettors are down on Mad Max, because he has pitched poorly in his L3 starts, forgetting that they all have been on the road. And at home, where he pitches much better, especially TY, he is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.55, with Tigers 5-0 in his five home starts, winning them by an average of 3 rpg. He also has a 2.35 ERA in his four nite starts TY, in which Det is 3-1. But more significantly for our 5 inning Under pick, those 4 nite starts went 1-3 Under and averaged just 5.75 total rpg, while his 5 home starts went 2-3 Under and averaged 7.0 total rpg. Moreover, in Max’s five home starts plus his one start TY vs Red Sox (in Boston), he allowed an average of just 0.85 runs in the first 5 innings of those six starts. And Lester’s first 5 inning #s are also good for the Under in his five road starts TY (plus his home start vs Det), where he has allowed just 1.5 runs in the first five innings. As a result of the above stellar #s for both pitchers, Scherzer’s above six key games averaged 3.3 total runs in F5 innings, and Lester’s six averaged even less, at 3.0.

The final piece for the Under is tonite’s home plate ump, Vic Carapazza, who is a pitcher’s “wet dream,” as he has the highest strike % of all umps in MLB TY at 66% - in other words, 66% of all pitches thrown in games where he has called balls and strikes TY have been strikes – talk about a wide strike zone. And his SO to walk ratio of 3.8/1 also impressive for pitchers & Under bettors – ring ‘em up!!

GL on this game, and hope my picks win for you if you play them.

Great Owl

[visualrealism]

Ouch. Next time..

[dirtycash66]

all that write up for nothing......next time kid just flip a coin, you have a better chance