[SBRforum Staff]

Go with Glavine and Mets

Game Time: 4/7/2007 3:55:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.procappers.com

Off to an incredibly strong start, the New York Mets with Tom Glavine on the hill are the play this afternoon at Atlanta against John Smoltz and the Braves.

The Mets have started the season 4-0 and they have yet to be challenged as both offense and pitching have been dominant. They are averaging 7.8 rpg on offense while the opposition has yet to score more than a run against the pitching as they lead the league in ERA at 0.75.

Tom Glavine started the run with a solid outing against St. Louis and he is back to face his former team once again. Glavine struggled against the Braves the first few times he faced them but he has since been very dominating for the most part. During his first 11 starts against the Braves, Glavine was 1-8 with a 6.94 ERA. His last effort against Atlanta was a rough one but prior to that, he tossed five straight quality starts. He had a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2006 and that included the one blowup. Glavine has gone 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his past six starts against his former team.

The Braves are hitting only .176 against lefties so far this season and are 1-1 against southpaw starters after going 18-23 last year against left-handed starters. John Smoltz got a no decision in his first start this year against the Phillies which was a very average outing. The Braves did get the win but it improved their record to just 4-7 in his April starts since 2004 as he has struggled out of the gate in recent years. He has been masterful against the Mets over the last two seasons but with the way New York is swinging the bat, that likely won’t carry over.

The Mets lead the National League in hitting and on-base percentage while their 31 runs are tops in the Majors. The New York bullpen has yet to allow an earned run this season which doesn’t come as much of a surprise seeing that the Mets led the National League last season with a bullpen ERA of 3.28. Play on underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 who had a very good bullpen last season with an ERA of 3.33 or better when facing division opponents. This situation is 33-14 against the moneyline (70.2 percent) since 1997, good for close to 25 Units of profit.

The Mets keep it rolling along on Saturday. Play New York Mets for one unit.

Play: Mets +105

[bigboydan]

Thats the way I'd bet this game myself Mr.Fargo.

[onlooker]

Great value with that hot azz team call the Mets. I have to take a shot with them at +105.

[rmcaj]

Ok another play I do not agree with. Glavine is abismal in Atlanta and smoltz pitches well against the mets. I am a die hard met fan here and will be rooting for them without putting a play on the game, however if there was any spot in where the mets were gonna lose its here. I would not trust Glavine in Atlanta as he absolutly sucks there. If i had to make a play on this game I would go with the under guessing that this will be a 4-2, 4-3 typle of ball game. I will not be surprised in the least bit if Glavine has major trouble here as his track record shows he is well below average when pitching against his former team and on the road.

[Crayzee]

hell yeah
gotta ride those mets till they lose

[Razz]

At this point, I think you have to take the Braves -108. I mean, last night, at -130, it was a no-bet, but now there is too much value with Atlanta not to play them.

[Razz]

Ok another play I do not agree with. Glavine is abismal in Atlanta and smoltz pitches well against the mets. I am a die hard met fan here and will be rooting for them without putting a play on the game, however if there was any spot in where the mets were gonna lose its here. I would not trust Glavine in Atlanta as he absolutly sucks there. If i had to make a play on this game I would go with the under guessing that this will be a 4-2, 4-3 typle of ball game. I will not be surprised in the least bit if Glavine has major trouble here as his track record shows he is well below average when pitching against his former team and on the road.

Well said.

[allsports]

Gotta love the Mets this year... I'm expecting big things from em...