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April 6 Ganchalysis
SEA/CLE – Both starters are suspect, but a strong outing by either would not be a surprise. Byrd has done very well vs. Seattle in his career, and Ramirez has done very well vs. the AL in his career, but both of those trends are likely incidental.
Cleveland has a strong offense this year, but they will be seeing Ramirez for the first time, which will put them at somewhat of a disadvantage. On the other hand, Ramirez tends to fare much better in parks that offer more protection than Jacobs Field will.
Cleveland does have the clear advantage in this game, but Seattle has some punch in their lineup, and with all the unpredictability involved with the starters, a play on Seattle might be warranted, especially if the line climbs high enough, which it may.
ARI/WASH – Highly-touted Micah Owings will be making his big league debut for Arizona tonight, and there’s reason to believe he’ll be ready to excel right off the bat. Jerome Williams has been shaky at times in his career, but also for the most part has had decent success in the majors.
With 2 sub-par lineups involved, an under play should have value, with the total possibly inflated due partly to Washington’s previous series with Florida, which produced 3 overs mostly because of Florida’s strong offense. The game yesterday produced only 7 runs, and that was with a wind blowing out to right field and 2 inferior starting pitchers compared to those going tonight.
The under in this game might be the strongest play on the board tonight.
PHI/FLA – This is a tricky game. Philadelphia looks much better on paper than they showed in their 3 games series with Atlanta. Florida is legitimately as good as they looked against Washington, and they are probably undervalued here.
Jamie Moyer seems like he should get crushed by good offenses every time out, but he continues to defy the laws of nature, and enjoys success as a 44-year-old junkballer. He had a good spring, and has done well at Dolphin Stadium, so a strong start by him here would not be a surprise.
Florida starter Sergio Mitre has never had any success at the big league level, but he has been expected to, and he had an excellent spring.
Philadelphia teams in general do better on the road and worse at home than most, and they might blast away for a big win here. But Florida is the real deal this year, and getting them as a small home dog probably has value.
MINN/WSOX – What an interesting game – 2 starting pitchers with a small chance of a quality start and a big chance of a bad start, both coming off of terrible springs, going up against 2 strong offenses. Will Silva throw 7 shutout innings, or will he give up 8 runs in 3? There are not many positives for either pitcher here.
But the White Sox do probably have a small edge in both lineup and starting pitching, and manager Ozzie Guillen is a no-nonsense motivator, so the White Sox might be a good play as a small home favorite with Minnesota coming off of a home sweep. Still, the likelihood of all outcomes for this game are low, so it would probably be best to keep the bet size low any way this game is bet.
COL/SD – Last year, the early April series between these 2 teams at Petco surprisingly and inexplicably produced 3 big overs. Later on in the year, however, things normalized between them as far as totals were concerned.
In this game, with Greg Maddux, who knows how to minimize scoring, especially in pitcher-friendly parks, going on one side, Jason Hirsch, who hasn’t yet learned how to win at this level yet, but nevertheless has a lot of talent, going on the other side, combined with 2 modest lineups and a generous total of 8.5, an under looks to have some value.
As far as the ML is concerned, it’s all about Hirsch. Maddux will very likely give his usual competent performance of 6 innings or so, yielding 0-3 runs. Hirsch is the wild card, and the line giving San Diego a close to 60% chance of winning is probably about right.
LAD/SF – Noah Lowry has been much better at home and at night in his career than he has been on the road and in the day, and Brad Penny has been much better in the earlier parts of the season than he has been in the later months, with April his strongest month career-wise. Neither lineup is terribly formidable, so there is probably value with the under tonight, with the total of 8.5 giving some breathing room. SF’s home series vs. SD produced totals of 7, 8 and 8, and the Dodgers’ series at Milwaukee went to 8, 7, and 9, and this series is likely to produced a similar distribution of runs.
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Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
