[PublicEnemy]

What impresses me most about 75% to 80% of the people here, is that they have NO IDEA what sports betting is really all about. Or betting in general, whatever type it is. What most fail to realize is that you can have a losing record and be up in $. I don't like to call too many people out, but this guy commented on my thread yesterday trying to be a "know it all" / or in a sense "1 up me" on my play.

1. That is just common forum/betting etiquette, you don't go into someone else thread and post an opposite play, regardless before or after the game has started (he posted well after the game had started)

2. You don't go into someone else thread and post an opposite play without reasoning or opinion.

3. I think thats his MO anyways, so its not surprised he did that.

Anyways...Lets proceed....

Sunshine11 posted Philly +1.5 (-170)!!!! lol after I posted my play of NYMets -1.5 (+175)...Now it just so happened that he got LUCKY and Philly +1.5 was a winner. But this is what you guys need to realize. THAT IS A HORRIBLE BET!! and I will explain why.

Example:
Lets say you are an average bettor (which most of us are) so the average bettor bets to win $100 per game.

For sunshine11 that would be he is risking $170 to win $100. Lets say Him and I bet a total of 100 games each, and we lose every single one of them. Lets say Sunshine11 is risking $140 (on average) on plays at -140 and Im only risking $100 on plays at EVEN, +105, +115, +145, +175 etc etc. (which I rarely put my money on anything over -115)

Sunshine11 = $140 x 100 = -14,000.00
PublicEnemy = $100 x 100 = -10,000.00

Sunshine11 has lost $4,000 more!!!!! THAT IS A LOT OF $ TO BE DOWN!

Example:
Now lets say we ONLY bet $100 no matter what the juice is. We both bet on 100 games each, and we WON every single one of them. For Sunshine11, $100 on a -170 is to win $58/$59. For me, I'm risking $100 on +145 is to win $145.

At the end of the season, HE WILL STILL NOT HAVE MADE MORE MONEY/PROFIT AS I (or anyone that follows the same principles)

Just wanted to make this point public, and for anyone that needs advice on BR management or "simple" R.O.I and such let me know, I'm always open to discuss and share information with anyone. About anything...



I will be back back to post my plays later today... Good luck and stay on the PLUS side of things

[AntGualdieri1]

nice post
looking forward to tailing you

[Bullywully]

So basically what you're saying is that betting on a (huge) favorite is not worth it?

[remeedella]

why are you judging others. A lot of people talk shit about 'locks' , winners tonight, etc and then they boast about their wins and argue about their losses. Don't take them seriously, it's best to ignore. It's easier to ignore.

Now, you toO! Are trying to boast and look better than others.

[upscope]

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

[Bullywully]

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

Yes unless you're very confident about the match up and you can take the RL.

[upscope]

Yes unless you're very confident about the match up and you can take the RL.

You can have all the confidence in the world. Over time +145's are not going to hit @ a 50% clip & -170's are going to hit much more often than 50%

[PublicEnemy]

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

That made absolutely no sense... If you are going to make an argument please support your case with facts and actual statistics. No where are you even close to accurate when saying +145 dogs are less then 50% and -170 favorites are at a hit rate of over 50%. Cuz if you take the time and go through all my post just for this season alone. I'm hitting better then 50% and I'm usually only playing PLUS $ / Dogs. Its all calculated risk, when to play them and when to fade them. But obviously you believe that favorites in BASEBALL hit at over 50%.

[PublicEnemy]

You can have all the confidence in the world. Over time +145's are not going to hit @ a 50% clip & -170's are going to hit much more often than 50%

One of the DUMBEST things I've ever read ANYWHERE on sports forums. Please do not take this comment as rude. This is a fact!

[PublicEnemy]

I do not want to go back and fourth with this argument. Obviously you have your opinion and I have mine. Lets end it with to each their own. Best of luck with your plays and lets focus on making money End it.

[Ro0k]

I personally try and look for value. If there is a big favorite and the juice is too much, I look at the run line. If it's at +odds, I generally play that as there is less of a financial risk, especially if the opposing SP and bullpen aren't very good.

I look at stats and go from there. I come from a daily fantasy MLB background so I crunch stats and roll with the numbers.

Just my 2 cents, still learning though and always appreciate the discussion.

[PublicEnemy]

I dabble a little in DFS I did really well for the nba regular season. Not so well for NFL tho. I play at f anduel mostly but have accountsto all the major DFS sites.

[Ro0k]

I play almost daily at Fanduel depending on how much time I have. Tried the others, wasn't much of a fan.

[PublicEnemy]

Ya I agree...I love fanduel. What level leagues do you play in? I like the single entry leagues just cuz all the other multi entry leagues I feel like those so called "professionals" have the edge cuz they can have so many entries n cover all their bases.

[Ro0k]

$5 50/50, $1 20 player and usually some $2 3 player. I usually throw a lineup into the $1 tournaments just incase my most confident lineup goes off.

I try and mix it up a bit.

[PublicEnemy]

Ahh the daily grinder. Well I use to try grinding daily but I went on a run n just started doing the bigger tournaments $5/$10/$25 and placed top 20 for a solid 2weeks. I think its way better payout. I would get so frustrated when my 50/50 lineups would do way better then my tourney ones. So I just started entering the bigger tournaments with 50/50 style lineups. Realized I cashed most the time. The daily grind was just not worth it for me. But good luck with whatever strategy u choose

[Ro0k]

Ha, yeah I know what you mean by sometimes it's not worth it.

I just hate redepositing $ into that account. I've been lucky so far and haven't had to deposit yet this year. Just waiting for a bit of a bigger bankroll before I enter the bigger pots.

[PublicEnemy]

All that Fanduel talk...haha I had to go enter a contest. I'm in the 45k Monday MLB Strikout... Looking to get 5th or better!!! Wish me luck

[Ro0k]

Ha, good luck