This play will win for a few reason this afternoon.
What a better way to start out a home-stand winning the first game, after getting swept by the Yankees? The Cubs have lost four straight, and although they're not a team to chase and losing five in a row in NOT unheard of - but did you know the Cubs are 9-3 straight up since 2007 coming off back-to-back away losses, then playing at home during the day. The line is also moving in their favor from +103 to around -116 now. The Reds have Alfredo Simon on the mound today, having two good outings already this season which helps favor the Reds here, but he did give up almost double the hits on the road last season compared to the hits he allowed at home. Relying on a decent performance from Samardzija, but shouldn't worry so much since...
Great value honestly - just by looking at how these two pitchers fare against their opponent. The over is 4-1 in Kuroda's last five vs Rays while old Bedard is 3-2 in the last five vs the Yankees, but his numbers are worse. The Rays though lead the league in walks with over 3.5 per game, and have the best hits allowed in the league, allowing over 8 per game. Keep in mind that the total has gone over 4 out of 5 in Rays last 5 home games...also this is Erik Bedard's first start this season. Think the over has tremendous value