[Willie Bee]

Pitching makes Tigers threat to repeat

After sneaking up on the AL last year, the element of surprise won't be there in 2007 for Detroit. But with their deep mound corps, they'll still be in the playoff hunt.

To say the Tigers came from nowhere to win the 2006 American League pennant would be something of an overstatement. After all, Detroit entered the season with solid pitching, including several young hurlers on the rise, and the offense was certainly capable of putting up enough runs to back the pitchers. And the consensus going into ’06 was Motown’s cats would battle Minnesota in the AL Central rankings.

However, the fight between the Tigers and Twins was supposed to be for third place in the group, right behind the White Sox and Indians who were picked to compete for the division title. In the end, it was Minnesota and Detroit taking home the top two rungs on the ALC ladder and making up half of the four Junior Circuit clubs in the postseason.

So to say Detroit came from nowhere last season would also be a bit of an understatement. This was a club guilty of nearly 120 losses just three short seasons earlier, and off back-to-back 90+ loss campaigns. So, yes, the Tigers were supposed to improve. But they weren’t supposed to win 95, hold control of the division until the season’s final day and then heat back up to win their 10th AL Championship before falling to a St. Louis Cardinals club that just got hot at the right time to win The Series.

The pieces were in place for Detroit to at least have a winning club. But the final piece that pushed them over the top was a manager that instilled a ‘we can do it’ attitude from Day 1 and got the team to believe in itself. Equally important was the job Jim Leyland did as the season progressed and article after article was penned predicting a Tigers’ inevitable slide and finish behind the reigning world champs on Chicago’s South Side.

Now Leyland faces a different challenge: Getting back to the playoffs now that they won’t be sneaking up on other teams in 2007.

OFFENSE
While Tigers hurlers deservedly received the lion’s share of the praise for Detroit’s bolt into the postseason after playing the role of bottom dwellers for so long, the offense probably didn’t get as much credit as it deserved. No, they weren’t great, but the lineup did finish fifth in the AL with 822 runs (5.07 per game) and third with 203 bleacher souvenirs. And when your pitching staff is only allowing 4.1 runs per game and surrendering the second fewest long balls in the AL, the offense was more than good enough.

One of the lineup’s shortcomings a year ago, and again this year as they prepare to take a field for real in about a week, was a lack of a prototypical leadoff batter. Curtis Granderson was atop the order most of the time, with both Placido Polanco and Brandon Inge also getting in their whacks as the #1 batter. None had an on-base tally better than .335, and none of the three stole more than eight bases.

Granderson will be back in center and likely batting leadoff against righties. Leyland has said he will use catcher Ivan Rodriguez in the leadoff slot against left-handers.

Flanking Granderson in the outfield will be Magglio Ordoñez in right and Craig Monroe in left. The duo combined for 52 homers and nearly 200 RBI in 2006. Marcus Thames will be the fourth outfielder and could see action in a good 120 games or more despite not being listed as a starter.

The final OF slot will be manned by newcomer Gary Sheffield, though Sheff will primarily fill the DH spot in the order through the ’07 run. The veteran is expected to supply a lot of punch to the lineup after Detroit surrendered three decent pitching prospects to the Yankees and inked Sheffield to a contract extension.

Timo Perez might also make the Opening Day roster depending how many pitchers the Tigers decide to take north.

Joining second baseman Polanco and third baseman Inge on the starting infield are shortstop Carlos Guillen and first baseman Sean Casey, acquired from the Reds in the middle of last season. Polanco missed some time last season with a shoulder injury, and Detroit hopes to have his services for at least 140 games this time around. Inge is off a career year, setting personal highs in homers, RBI and runs.

Guillen just missed a 20-20 season by a homer and was the club’s offensive MVP a year ago with team bests in runs, steals, doubles, average, on-base percentage and slugging. Casey struggled a bit after joining the Tigers, his .245 batting average in 45 games very unlike him. But he inked a discounted one year deal to return to Detroit this season and should be the left-handed part of a first base platoon with Chris Shelton.

Shelton isn’t guaranteed to make the club out of spring, and the rest of the infield backups are also up in the air. Omar Infante should nab one of the reserve slots and is also seeing a little time in center field this spring. Neifi Perez, over from the Cubs after Polanco was hurt, and Ramon Santiago are battling for the final infield spot.

Vance Wilson will be Pudge’s backup at catcher, meaning Wilson is going to be spending a lot of time on the pine.

PITCHING
Veteran southpaw Kenny Rogers led a quartet of starters for Detroit last year, the other three being fellow lefty Nate Robertson and right-handers Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. Between them the foursome hurled over 812 innings, won 61 games and came home with a combined 3.85 ERA, right in line with the club’s MLB leading 3.84 mark.

All four are back, with Verlander also sporting the AL Rookie of the Year plaque and Rogers off a fabulous postseason during which he went 3-0 in three starts with nary a run allowed in his 23 innings of work. Rogers has pretty much picked up where he left off last fall with a solid spring so far. Unfortunately, Verlander has also picked up where he left off with a bit of a dismal spring following a postseason that saw him go 1-2, with both losses in the World Series, and a 5.82 ERA.

Mike Maroth, limited to nine starts and four relief outings a year ago due to elbow trouble, will be the fifth starter out of the gate. Chard Durbin could be the long reliever to begin with and fill in if needed in the rotation. Zach Miner will probably start at Triple-A and also be counted on when needed in the rotation after the rookie went 7-6 in 16 starts in place of Maroth a year ago.

The bullpen will open with Todd Jones once again in the closer’s role. Setting him up will be Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, with the hard-throwing Zumaya practically untouchable this spring so far and the most likely replacement at closer should Jones falter or suffer an injury.

Who joins that trio in the pen is still a bit unknown. Either Durbin or Miner could be the long man, and lefty Wilfredo Ledezma is likely to have a job. Left-handers Felix Heredia and Bobby Seay, who is having a solid spring, along with Jason Grilli are also candidates for relief.

Key Player(s): The pitching staff should be good enough and deep enough to absorb an injury or an off year from an arm or two. So the offense gets the spotlight here. If the pitching can do it again, the offense only has to be a bit above average to take the Tigers to 90+ wins. Seeing hitters like Granderson, Monroe and Inge cut their strikeouts would go a long way.

Futures: Bodog has the Tigers pegged at 88½ for the win total and makes Detroit at 11:2 to repeat as AL Champs. The book also lists the Tigers at 2:1, same as the ChiSox, to win the NL Central and 10:1 to win the World Series. Pinnacle has the same win total and lists the Motown Nine +234 to win the AL Central, +700 to win the American League and +1100 to go all the way. The Greek also follows suit on the win total and puts the Tigers at +1225 to win the Fall Classic.

My sims came out with a 90-win average, with the high tide being 94 wins and the low mark at 83 wins.

[bigboydan]

I just don't see the Tigers repeating the success they achieved last year. I know they still great pitching at all, but like I said before. They just really overachieved last year to the point where it's going to hurt them this year big time.

I don't see the motor city kitties winning more than 85 games this year. So needless to say I like the under 88.5 wins this year for them.

[tacomax]

Can't see them repeating next year much like the White Sox last season. Chicago really played above themselves to take the WS and went back to earth with a bump last year - I can see Detroit doing the same.

[bigboydan]

I would also have to wonder about the possible resentment factor over Leyland. All the media talked about last year did was give credit to him, and not to the players on that team. You have to at least figure that egos will clash with some of those player at some point this year as well.

[Razz]

The comparison to the White Sox is a very good one. Strong pitching, a young guy in the pen who threw 100 (Jenks/Zumaya), a lineup that featured no real stars (Konerko/Dye, Pudge/Magglio were All-Star caliber players, but not really guys you think of as top 10 or 15 in the league). The year after, they went out and acquired one big-time player (Thome/Sheffield).
While it will remain to be determined if the slip is coming, I kind of think it is. Rogers certainly isn't getting any younger, and I think Verlander could be in for a fall. Maybe his troubles down the stretch last season were the result of a tired arm, but I think it was more that teams were beginning to figure him out.

[bigboydan]

Tigers LHP Rogers placed on the 15-day DL

DETROIT (AP) -- Detroit Tigers pitcher Kenny Rogers will miss at least one regular-season start after being placed on the 15-day disabled list Thursday with a tired arm.

[austintx05]

Halladay