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2007 MLB Preview: Nats in for trying season
Nationals in for trying season
With another year to wait before their new stadium opens, Nationals fans will have to live with the fact their team will be the best Triple-A squad in the majors this year.
The honeymoon, as they say, is over. And now the reality of exactly what they got from Montreal is starting to sink in on the fans in the nation’s capital that clamored and begged for years to have their third chance at supporting a major league team.
Jeffrey Loria, now down in Florida, mismanaged the team before high-tailing it out of Canada to take over the Marlins. After that the former Expos were operated by MLB, and we all know how that worked out as the club was whisked away from Montreal and shipped to DC. Eventually, ownership was transferred to the Lerners, Tanenbaums, Cohens and one Lerner-Cohen.
And the result of all that moving and shaking? The club is right back where it was when Loria was running the show up in Montreal, smack dab in the basement of the National League and looking at a very real shot to lose 100 games this year.
It’s been about 100 years since columnist Charley Dryden first penned the line, but it’s still very true today by just changing one word: Washington - - First in war, first in peace, last in the National League.
OFFENSE
New manager Manny Acta will be busy this spring getting to know his players and sorting through the 27 second basemen, 15 first basemen and half-dozen or so left fielders at his disposal. Ok, ok, it’s not that bad, but I’m guessing Acta would be a little happier with his first managerial job had the club retained their star left-fielder from a year ago, Alfonso Soriano.
But they didn’t and there’s no use in Acta wishing they had.
Acta should be able to go on and ink three players into his lineup card now: catcher Brian Schneider, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman and right-fielder Austin Kearns. Eventually he’ll add a fourth ‘everyday name’ to that list, first baseman Nick Johnson. But Johnson will start the year on the DL as he recovers from the broken leg he suffered last September.
Johnson had a couple of screws removed from the busted right femur in mid-January, and the prognosis now is he will return anytime from late April to early June. So there’s an all-out battle for his job to start the season. Candidates include veterans Robert Fick, Dmitri Young and Travis Lee, along with rookie hopeful Larry Broadway.
The battle for left field is between Ryan Church, Kory Casto, Michael Restovich and Chris Snelling who the Nats acquired during the winter from Seattle in a trade for second sacker Jose Vidro.
Center field apparently is Nook Logan’s to lose. Alex Escobar is also around to take over once Nook’s speed comes up short and Acta comes to grips with the old adage, "You can’t steal first base."
The middle infield will likely open with Felipe Lopez at second and Cristian Guzman at short. Guzman missed all of 2006 due to shoulder surgery, so that’s a concern. But a bigger concern is that Acta has said he would like to see Guzman hit second in the lineup. Hmm, is it just me or does Guzman’s .298 career on-base percentage suggest to anyone else that the 10-hole might be better suited for Guzman?
Ronnie Belliard, who split with the Indians and Cardinals last year, signed recently and my money’s on Belliard eventually taking the job at second with Lopez sliding over to short.
PITCHING
If the new dugout commander only had to focus on getting his position players sorted out, that would be a big enough job by itself this spring. But Acta must also try and sort through the arms in camp and come up with some semblance of a rotation and bullpen.
Just how bad is the pitching situation in Washington? Consider that Tim Redding and Jerome Williams will be slugging it out for possibly the #2 and #3 slots in the rotation. That should be all you really need to know about the Nationals’ pitching in 2007. Gone from last year, with some of them departing during the 2006 season, are Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas Jr.
John Patterson is listed as the club’s top starter entering Spring Training. Don’t get me wrong; Patterson is a fine pitcher. But the 29-year-old right-hander has a long history of injuries, and has managed to pitch more than 100 innings just one season (2005).
Redding, for all of his past struggles, did enjoy a pretty good season in Triple-A last year, so he might surprise us this year. He just turned 29 and his stuff has never been in question, only his mental makeup. Williams is just 25 and it’s a no-lose situation for him and the Nationals.
After those three, who knows? In fact, who knows about those three to begin with? Two left-handers who could eventually fill out the rotation are Mike O’Connor and Brandon Claussen. Both are recovering from offseason surgery and will begin the year on the DL.
The bullpen will once again find Chad Cordero as the closer and Jon Rauch as the primary setup arm entering camp. Saul Rivera and Ryan Wagner would also appear set in one relief role or another. Veteran lefty Ray King, who has been on the Mickey Lolich training regime for a few years now, is a possibility as the southpaw specialist, as is Micah Bowie.
And keep an eye out for Emiliano Fruto who came from Seattle to Washington along with Snelling in the Vidro deal. He’d be ticketed for a full season in Triple-A if he was with any contending club, but as a member of the Nationals organization, he could be a regular arm out of the pen for Washington before the season is said and done.
Key Player(s): Ok, so he’s not a player, won’t be lacing up his cleats and swinging for the fences or throwing heaters by hitters. But DC mayor Anthony Williams will play a key role for the 2007 Washington Nationals. It will be Williams’ job to keep reminding the fans they’ll be getting a brand new, state of the art park in 2008 and it won’t cost more than $611 million.
General manager Jim Bowden, assuming he can avoid drinking and driving and can hold his job until July 31, will also be critical to the team. It will be his job to find the best offer for players like Cordero, Belliard and Church once teams come looking for assistance at the deadline.
Futures: The Greek has set the over-under break at 68½ wins. You can also package the Marlins and the Nats together at +825 at The Greek. Pinnacle lists Washington at +3500 to win the NL East. Don’t think I would take them to win it even if you added another zero to that number. VIP has Washington 12:1 to win the NL East and 75:1 to win the NL flag.
My projections suggest Washington will have to hump it in order to avoid 100 loses. On average, the Nats hit the 67-win mark, and I’m projecting 66 for them at this time.
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