Stephen Strasburg (5 - 8, 2.85 ERA) vs Anibal Sanchez (8-7, 2.68 ERA)
Pitching: Strasburg Away: 4.66 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.232 July: 4.20 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.212 Post-All-Star: 1.80 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.170
Anibal Home: 2.19ERA with an AVG against him of 0.185 July: 2.42ERA with an AVG against him of 0.238 Post-All-Star: 0.75ERA with an AVG against him of 0.227
According to the statistics, Anibal seems to be a much stronger pitcher at home than a Strasbourg away. Both pitchers show good numbers and seem to be on a nice rhythm this month. Finally, since the All Star break, you can see that Anibal is the one you can rely on. He is getting more base runners, but he handles them well, whereas with Strasburg, while he is hard to hit against, if you make contact you can generate a lot of power and score. This seems perfect for a team like Detroit.
Batting: Looking at the offense of both teams since the All Star break, you can see that Detroit ranks 4th on overall AVG while Washington ranks 12th. Detroit’s ranking is a bit high considering who they played (Royals, White Sox and Phillies) whereas Washington’s ranking is a bit low (Dodgers, Pirates and Mets). Their offenses are good in the league but Detroit’s is way better.
Pick: Point Spread: Detroit Tigers -1.5 Moneyline: Detroit Tigers -130 Total: Over 7.5
Adam Wainwright (13 - 6, 2.51 ERA) vs Jeff Locke (9 - 3, 2.15 ERA)
Pitching: Wainwright Away: 3.00 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.272 July: 3.50 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.259 Post-All-Star: 3.00 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.268
Locke Home: 2.56ERA with an AVG against him of 0.226 July: 2.49ERA with an AVG against him of 0.216 Post-All-Star: 2.13ERA with an AVG against him of 0.216
Locke as an overall better than Wainwright and this dominance keep going after the all star break. This will result in a better start for Pittsburgh even if it’is a close game.
Batting: Looking at the offense of both teams since the All Star break, you can see that Pittsburgh ranks 14th on overall AVG while St-Louis ranks 28th. Their offenses are not the best in the league but Pittsburgh's is way better.
In conclusion, Pittsburgh will continue is winning streak in a close game with not much offense.
Pick: Point Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates -102 Total: Under 7
Pitching: Sanchez Away: 3.13 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.276 July: 2.15 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.227 Post-All-Star: 0.95 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.214
Kluber Home: 2.98ERA with an AVG against him of 0.249 July: 3.00ERA with an AVG against him of 0.208 Post-All-Star: 3.20ERA with an AVG against him of 0.243
Cleveland as a pitcher who was struggling a bit lately, but who has still a lot to give. They want continue their little streak and win some precious point against their rival.
But by looking at the stats and late result, Detroit will win. Detroit as a really successful pitcher and the third overall offense since the All-Star break.
The most interesting point to debate on is the over under 7.5: Two great offense facing two good pitchers;
Considering one of the two pitcher will struggle, Sanchez as a max ER of 5 in the last 10 games and Kluber as a maximum of 6ER. Then their ERA for july combine to 5. With two of the best recent offensive team in the league, we can see that the wise choice is to pick over 7.5.
Pick: Point Spread: Detroit Tigers -1.5 Moneyline: Detroit Tigers -130 Total: Over 7.5
Other picks; Atlanta -1.5 St-Louis -1.5 Houston +1.5 Kansas City -1.5 Yankees -1.5 Los Angeles Angels +1.5 under9 Seattle -1.5 Millwaukee +1.5
Pitching: Feldman Away: 3.82 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.237 Post-All-Star: 5.60 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.261
Miley Home: 3.93ERA with an AVG against him of 0.245 Post-All-Star: 1.44ERA with an AVG against him of 0.180
For the month of August, Arizona has been more productive offensively than Baltimore, this advantage can be slightly increased considering the last team they faced.
Then by looking at the pitchers stat, you clearly sees that Miley have had dominant games since mid-july. Therefore Feldman is pitching the same as the beginning of the season and will have trouble against a team with a solid August-AVG.
I would first pick Arizona for the moneyline.
If you look at the odds for the U/O and the point spread, you can calculate that the moneyline is overrated. In conclusion i would take Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Considering one of the two pitcher will struggle, Sanchez as a max ER of 5 in the last 10 games and Kluber as a maximum of 6ER. Then their ERA for july combine to 5. With two of the best recent offensive team in the league, we can see that the wise choice is to pick over 7.5.
For the U/O, both team are productive offensive team then Miley and Feldman will perform a bit under what they are used. under -8.5
On last night result, a couple of coach decision (let Darvish pitch over a 100 pitches) and mistake (Miley’s wild and bad pitches) went against my picks but i am still confident this is the way to insure you an above average winning ration on the long run. And the long run is the good way to make money.
Tonight Games of the Day:
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Harvey ( 9 - 3, 2.09ERA ) vs Hyun-Jin Ryu ( 11 - 3, 2.99ERA ), One of the best matchup in the league.
Will the Mets support their Ace for once? Will the Dodgers continue their streak?
Mets last 10 games : 6 - 4 Dodgers last 10 games: 9 - 1
Pitching: Harvey Away: 2.44 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.202 Post-All-Star: 1.84 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.163
Ryu Home: 1.83ERA with an AVG against him of 0.228 Post-All-Star: 2.55ERA with an AVG against him of 0.281
According to the statistics, Matt Harvey is obviously more dominant than Ryu, he will keep the score one run lower than his opponent and go deeper in the game. By looking at the last performance of Ryu, you realise that the Cardinals, the best hitting team in the league, was scoreless. Then Ryu has an offensive team behind him, with David Wright away, Murphy and Byrd under (even if Wilmer Flores is doing a good job) the support won’t be here.
The Dodgers are stronger and they proved it with their 6 games streak ( 4 home games streak).
To conclude, the dodgers will win but not by much:
Pick: Point Spread: New York Mets +1.5 Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers -127 Total: Under 6
Other pick: Washington (-125) Detroit (-200) St-Louis -1.5 (+110) Kansas City -1.5 (+170) Baltimore -1.5 (+145) Oakland -305
Will Washington keep his streak running? Will San Francisco’s offense start to be productive?
Tim Lincecum ( 6 - 11, 4.18ERA ) vs Jordan Zimmermann ( 13 - 6, 3.10ERA )
Giants last 10 games : 3 - 7 Nationals last 10 games: 6 - 4
Pitchiners: Lincecum Away: 4.06 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.272 Post-All-Star: 3.86 ERA with an AVG against him of 0.211
Zimmermann Home: 2.90ERA with an AVG against him of 0.231 Post-All-Star: 6.75ERA with an AVG against him of 0.321
On their two last starts, both pitchers have been dominant, each got one Win and a low ERA. Last 2: Lincecum: 0.60ERA and Zimmermann: 1.80ERA
Batting: Mean for the Last 10 games: San Francisco produced 2.3 runs per games and allowed 3.9 runs. Washington produced 4.5 runs per games and allowed 2.9 runs.
Then you know that Marco Scutaro just got on the Day to Day Disable List who is responsible for 5 runs out of the last 10 games. Which will bring down the average production of San Francisco.
To conclude, San Francisco as a lack of production which will be fatal for this game. It will be a pitchers game until the 5th inning then Washington will produce and take the lead.
Pick: Point Spread: Washington National +1.5 Moneyline: Washington National -146 Total: Under 7
other picks:
Tampa Bay -1.5 Minnesota -110 Pittsburg +1.5 Detroit -1.5 Texas -1.5 Kansas City -1.5 Baltimore +110
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