[scotty555]

Has anyone read "Trading Bases" by Joe Peta? He was a hedge fund manager who uses those statistical tools to bet on baseball.

I think I need that help! After getting extremely lucky last week and winning two huge parlays of 4 teams and 6 teams, I backed off. Just for fun, I made predictions on all the games played and the O/U on Tuesday, Wedesday and Thursday...the results?

51.4 % on Tuesday, 46.7% on Wednesday and 57.5% on Thursday.

My goal is 70%, but as you can see, my predictions need a lot of help.

So -- has anyone used the tools in Trading Bases?

Cheers,

Scotty

[PerfectGrape]

Baseball games are based on chance.Anything can happen. Books are very ggood at predicting events. You can't hit 70% the lines are not inaccurate. Aim to exploit a small advantage over and over again

[Nick@SI]

I have read the book and started working on using the basic concepts with some tweaks of my own. I have had better results than you have had. Short couple week sample hit about 60% but was declining as of late and continue to work on improving. I found the biggest problem with my work so far was that it gave to big of an edge to the favorites. Not to say favorites can't be the value side but a large part of the suggested plays were favorites or short typically home dogs. I loved the book and suggest it to anyone who is new to MLB modeling. Good luck with your work