[Avala7ch3]

doing my daily researches I've noticed a trend... Nearly every day there's one or more games where one of the teams has a significant edge in ALL comparable parameters, e.g. stats, forms, pitchers and so on. It seems too good and the only reason I've never bet this game was the terrible odds, e.g. -145, -150....
Analyzing the record of current season so far I can see something interesting - if I would bet underdogs in this kind of games (53 games from the beginning of the season) the result is:

29-22-2
+11.63 units

the games in this category in last three days:

07/06/2013
4	957 Philadelphia	(L) Lee, C (7-2)	-131	8.5	-140	8
5	958 Milwaukee	(R) Figaro, A (0-0)	121		130		Win
-	971 L.A. Angels	(R) Hanson, T (2-2)	115	9.5	120	11	post.
-	972 Boston	(L) Doubront, F (4-2)	-125		-140
08/06/2013
1	919 Oakland	(L) Milone, T (6-5)	-114	8.5	-125	8.5
4	920 Chi. White Sox	(L) Danks, J (0-2)	104		115		Win
9	931 L.A. Angels	(R) Hanson, T (2-2)	127	9	123	9.5	Win
5	932 Boston	(L) Doubront, F (4-2)	-142		-138
09/06/2013
1	957 Pittsburgh	(L) Locke, J (5-1)	-105	8	-120	8
4	958 Chi. Cubs	(R) Jackson, E (1-8)	-105		110		Win

it's pretty amazing but of course it could be a coincidence, so I'll keep an eye on the trend till the end of the season and let see what will happen if 'it seems too good to be true'...

[joco]

sounds like something worth keeping an eye on

[Bluedragon]

interesting. you going to post plays on this trend?

[Avala7ch3]

yeah, i will....but there are no qualified plays today

[Avala7ch3]

6/11

968 Tampa Bay	(R) Carmona, F	+115	1 Unit
954 Miami	(R) Turner, J	+103	1 Unit

[drfunkmaster]

any given night a team could win..

[Avala7ch3]

any given night a team could win..

that's the charm of the baseball betting

[Avala7ch3]

968 Tampa Bay	(R) Carmona, F	+115	1 Unit	Won
954 Miami	(R) Turner, J	+103	1 Unit	Won

Record: 32-22-2
Net Profit: +14.81 units

[Avala7ch3]

6/12



​

911 Washington

(R) Ohlendorf, R

+145

1 Unit

it won't end well...

[joco]

confused...if u dont think it willl end well why r u betting on it...just cuz the "system" says?

[mikmik]

I like it.

[Avala7ch3]

confused...if u dont think it willl end well why r u betting on it...just cuz the "system" says?

yeah, a part of my success in betting is due to my attitude to the bussiness. iam willing to take very seriously this job and when i put all variables into the spreadsheet after all researches ive made and the Program says 'DO IT!' 95% of the time I do it! - no feelings, nothing taken personally, just a business! in the rest of 5% when i didn't do it, 99% i've been wrong!!! the last indicative example is from yesterday - the system came with 3 picks - 2 of them i've posted but the 3rd decided to ignore....the 3rd pick was Dodgers ! WTF...Arizona was a hard underdog, i very liked it, even made it a 'pick of the day'!!!! it doesnt made sense for me!!! how dare the fkn program to tell me to do otherwise? so i just ignore it...and that was a terrible mistake! my experience tell me if there is conflict between 2 systems or between a system and my opinion the best way to act is to pass this game - most of the time when ive ignored this, i LOSE!!!

so, now every single cell in my brain is screaming 'DON'T DO IT', but since now till the end of the season i'll follow the system strictly, whatever's my opinion! it's very possible, i've made a beast - the program that's able to analyze better than me!

[mikmik]

Cash nats. Keep Em coming.

[Bbr]

SO your basically basing your plays on the the "wrong team favoured" theory? I'm confused

[drfunkmaster]

i guess wrong team favoured was mariners today right. cuz astros won.

[Avala7ch3]

​

911 Washington

(R) Ohlendorf, R

+145

1 Unit

Won

Record: 33-22-2
Net Profit: +16.26 units

[El Sol]

Nothing new really. Betting on Underdogs has always been the key to winning at sports betting. Lines are set up for equal probabilities, however books are also aware of the Amateurs preference to bet favorites and avoid underdogs. Its about understanding Brain chemistry in addicts. As winning gives you a rush regardless of the payout, and losing triggers negative emotions. So an addict, degenerate or rookie just wants to win oblivious to long term probabilities, and as a result will almost always bets at -EV odds with a false belief in 'easy' or 'free' money.

I mean really, who wants to win at a 30 - 50% clip compared to a 50 - 75% clip. But, winning at a 30 - 50% at +odds will be more profitable.

Theres so much more to be successful at sports betting than just handicapping games and observing lines. I think the most important part is understanding yourself.