1. 05-31-13 11:53 AM #1
    trendon
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    First Inning Runs

    I am so awful at analyzing baseball; as evidenced by my 14-game losing streak that was only slightly worse than some other ones sustained over the past couple of seasons. However, I've had tremendous luck (and, as of now, still calling it luck) with first inning runs props. One of my prevailing theories is finding low or high totals that have line movement the opposite way and jump on the corresponding prop in the first inning as soon as you can.

    That said, it has been an extremely small sample size (only 14 games, 10-4 +8.15, undocumented of course) and I also suck at wagering on anything that doesn't involve college kids playing on a 120-yard long field.

    Anyway, away we go ...

    [9262] ARI/CUBS SC 1ST INN NO +120
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  2. 05-31-13 12:04 PM #2
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
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    Bol...trendon.
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  3. 05-31-13 12:07 PM #3
    saints1856
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    I've suffered my fair share of bad luck with scoreless first inning prop bets... And Cubs games seem to always have a pitcher start out rocky and allow early runs.

    Best of luck man, especially getting +money (which is rare for this type prop)
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  4. 05-31-13 12:08 PM #4
    dalogester
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    wow + money for this... very tempting, how large are you going on this??
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  5. 05-31-13 12:13 PM #5
    trendon
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    Everything I do is $50. It might be the only goddamn thing I do correctly, static bet sizes based on a bankroll. Other than that, I am a mess.
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  6. 05-31-13 12:47 PM #6
    dalogester
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    im on it with ya. lets do it!
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  7. 05-31-13 01:37 PM #7
    dalogester
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    god damnit how do you give up a home run there? i knew it was too good to be true.
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  8. 05-31-13 05:33 PM #8
    trendon
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    Yeah, do not tail me. When I say I am bad, I am not doing it in that reverse psychology and/or modest way; I simply suck.

    Tally: 0-1 -1.00

    [9268] NYM/MIA SC 1ST INN NO -130
    [9282] KC/TEX SC 1ST INN NO +105
    [9269] WAS/ATL SC 1ST INN YES +110

    I'll pay the 30 cents to dare either one of these offenses to score in the first inning. Even with Tejada and Davis on their own version of a hot streak and Marcum/Turner are not exactly the type of pitchers you can rely on, I'll take it.

    As for KC/TEX, this is really moronic considering how each hits righties/lefties, respectively. It is just a hunch. I also have the under (full game) in this one.

    WSH/ATL is another one I am probably nuts for taking. The team I have more confidence in putting one up on the board first (Atlanta) has to deal with the better pitcher (Stras) who has been filthy over the last four starts. But, there is enough speed and power that will see the plate for both teams in the first that makes me feel slightly confident in going with YES.


    That said, I fully anticipate a nice 1-2 with the middle game going over just to kick me in the nuts one extra time.
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  9. 05-31-13 05:35 PM #9
    baazigar
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    i like cin/pitt to score first inning
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  10. 05-31-13 05:40 PM #10
    ses_d
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    The Mets game was close...should've been a fly ball out actually but the wind kept carrying it.
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  11. 05-31-13 05:44 PM #11
    trendon
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    Quote Originally Posted by baazigar View Post
    i like cin/pitt to score first inning
    I looked at that because Rodriguez's numbers (as mentioned by someone on this forum) are laughable against the Reds in a very short period of time.
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  12. 05-31-13 06:08 PM #12
    SlickRick1382
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    I like to bet 1st innings as well so I'll track your thread

    Good Luck bro
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  13. 05-31-13 06:52 PM #13
    trendon
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlickRick1382 View Post
    I like to bet 1st innings as well so I'll track your thread

    Good Luck bro
    Thank you, sir. Adding one more.

    [9287] CWS/OAK SC 1ST INN YES +105

    Honestly, just following the line movement and taking the plus odds. If the KC/TEX play comes through, I might take YES on TOR/SD which might as well be me saying JOSE BAUTISTA - YES.
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  14. 05-31-13 07:05 PM #14
    JMon
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    You sure do articulate like you know what you are doing
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  15. 05-31-13 07:20 PM #15
    trendon
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    I like LAD/COL YES but I don't feel like paying 25 cents. Let's see if it was chickenshit of me.
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  16. 05-31-13 07:23 PM #16
    trendon
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    You sure do articulate like you know what you are doing
    If I talk it out, perhaps I can expose a weakness that one of you guys can see; a fallacy that the brain is hardwired to believe. I've been a member of the site for a while, but I've never been very chatty. Let's change that.
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  17. 06-01-13 11:22 AM #17
    trendon
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    Total: 3-2 +1.15

    Only BOS/NYY - NO really jumps out at me today; will take a look shortly.
    Last edited by trendon; 06-01-13 at 02:08 PM.
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  18. 06-01-13 12:22 PM #18
    trendon
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    Justin Verlander (who hasn't been pitching all that well, but still) is pitching at Camden Yards against an Orioles team whose top 5 batters have one RBI in their career against Verlander in about 80 PA's. Meanwhile, Miguel Cabrera (who is sorta good) is coming off a May where he drove in 33 runs and has haad no trouble against O's starter Hammels in 10 AB's. So, the only logical play is ...

    [9054] ORIOLES SC 1ST +145

    Told ya I suck at this activity.

    Things Working Against the Bet

    - Verlander is probably out of his funk and he is Verlander.
    - As road team, Tigers bat first each time.
    - Hammels isn't exactly a good pitcher.
    - Miguel Cabrera.
    - Top of O's order has been embarrassing v. Verlander over their careers.
    - Detroit is 3rd-highest scoring team in the league.

    Things Working For the Play

    - +45 cents! Wheeee!
    - Orioles are the highest scoring team in the league.
    - That's pretty much it. Did I mention 45 cents?
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  19. 06-01-13 02:08 PM #19
    trendon
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    [9079] CWS/OAK SC 1ST INN YES +100


    Lineups come out and Crisp isn't on it (rest) and the total moves up half a point? I'll take the prop and the over in this one.

    [9067] ARI/CUBS SC 1ST INN YES -125
    [9086] BOS/NYY SC 1ST INN NO -110

    The first loss in this thread was a NO on ARI/CUBS and I swear it isn't a revenge pick. I would not be surprised if Arizona got to Samardzija; Montero has done well against him in a small sample. As for the Yanks, I see a nice game from Hughes plus the typical Yankees offensive woes.
    Last edited by trendon; 06-01-13 at 02:16 PM.
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  20. 06-02-13 03:24 AM #20
    trendon
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    Saturday: 3-1 +2.00
    Total: 6-3 +3.15

    Could have been a nice 3-0 day if I didn't have to get greedy and take Orioles to score first. But, hey, maybe I am a fool, but 45 cents on the best offense in baseball is worth it to me ... and they had first and second with one out but blew it.

    On to tomorrow! With a slightly inebriated eye, I can tell you I might like YES on CHW/OAK. Either way, Happy Harvey Day for all you fellow Mets fans!
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  21. 06-02-13 11:30 AM #21
    trendon
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    Let's go back for seconds!

    [9248] ORIOLES SC 1ST +140

    Other than that, I don't see anything I like.
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  22. 06-02-13 07:20 PM #22
    trendon
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    There is an old expression that says you shouldn't go for the hottest girl in the room, but rather the second hottest. There is a reason the top hottie is valued like that ... it is trouble. But, like a beautiful siren calling to me, I went back for seconds on the Orioles and, as the powers-that-be knew, the goddamn Orioles left small villages on the basepaths in the two SCORE FIRST games I played. But, that's what I get for going after the hot bet; mystified twice by the juicy plus odds. I remember there being some amulet in the Final Fantasy series of games that you could wear to be immune to the call of the siren. They need something like that for gambling. Perhaps they can call it the Exalted Chain of Discipline. That'd be nice.

    Nah, to hell with that ...

    [9290] TOR/SDG SC 1ST INN NO -115

    YOU SHAN'T SCORE!

    I am 6-1 on the first inning bets and 0-2 on score first bets. Perhaps I should read my own subject line that clearly says this thread is for "first inning runs"?
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  23. 06-02-13 07:30 PM #23
    dalogester
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    How did you get -115 no first inning run when I got +105
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  24. 06-02-13 08:51 PM #24
    trendon
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    Because I am too lazy to go down to Pathmark and make a deposit.... And jeopardize my life. So, I go through a local on occasion and they use a complicated system called "making up as bullshit a line as possible" to do their lines. Dime line? Lulz. I've seen - 145 with a comeback of +105

    I drained my 5dimes account on a lovely 14 game losing streak. I will reup soon.
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  25. 06-02-13 09:01 PM #25
    trendon
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    Double post
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  26. 06-03-13 11:44 AM #26
    trendon
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    Sunday: 1-1 +0.00
    Total: 7-4 +3.15

    Quickly looking, the two late games look promising. Early lean is a NO on Angels and YES on Mariners.
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  27. 06-03-13 03:25 PM #27
    trendon
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    Booked HOU/ANG SC 1ST INN NO -115
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  28. 06-04-13 01:45 AM #28
    trendon
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    Today (well, yesterday to be precise) was the type of day I needed to have. I booked one bet (the "no" win) and stayed away from an early lean (the "yes" on Seattle). So, a nice little run and perhaps I've found a niche.

    I'm 8-2 on games that don't involve thinking a bird (Orioles) will score before a cat (Tigers). Much better than, oh, say oh-and-goddamn-fourteen! Sure, I'm not ready to move my headquarters from a condo in the metro area to high atop a lofty mountain in Nepal where I only communicate with you plebeians via carrier pigeon ... but confidence is a wonderful thing.


    But, what's that I sense? Oh, it's Mr. Mean Regression approaching my door looking to sell me some of his soul-crushing wares. Avoid thee!


    Early Leans: NYM/WSH Yes and maybe a "yes" on the CHI/SEA tilt if I can get 25 cents.

    TOTAL: 8-4 +4.15
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  29. 06-04-13 02:38 PM #29
    Tofudog
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    Good work so far trendon, with some added antics to make it amusing.. Im already on NO for mets and washington, so i hope you wrong. I will continue to see if your luck keeps playing out tho!
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  30. 06-04-13 03:19 PM #30
    trendon
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    And this is where this mini-run comes unglued. Four games; I hate having that many.

    NYM/WAS SC 1ST INN YES +110
    CLE/NYY SC 1ST INN NO -115
    TEX/BOS SC 1ST INN NO -115
    BAL/HOU SC 1ST INN NO -115
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  31. 06-04-13 04:19 PM #31
    amolg24
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    Dangerous card. I used to love betting no score in 1st but decided the info is too little pregame to make any substantial bets. BOL though!
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  32. 06-05-13 11:14 AM #32
    trendon
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    Tues: 2-2 -.15
    Total: 10-6 +4.00

    So, I said "NO" to TEX/BOS scoring in the first? Yeah, well, the Red Sox scored in every inning.

    I might like OAK/MIL NO at 2PM but let's look at it further.
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  33. 06-05-13 12:51 PM #33
    trendon
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    OAK/MIL SC 1ST INN NO -115


    A lot of players are either being rested or debriefed in this one. Now, I can't exactly make heads or tails of who is going to be replacing guys like Ramirez, Reddick, Weeks, and Braun at the top of both of these lineups but we will assume that they are not as valuable as the aforementioned guys.

    And we all know how assuming works out!

    Also adding SDG/DOD SC 1ST INN YES +120

    Absolutely nothing creative about that play. I just saw the money jump on the total (it moved up to seven at Heritage) and decided to take a chance. I like chances. Sometimes the chance is in my favor, sometimes I am paying $200 because it sent me to a railroad and your heartless cousin has all four railroads.
    Last edited by trendon; 06-05-13 at 12:55 PM.
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  34. 06-05-13 12:56 PM #34
    trendon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tofudog View Post
    Good work so far trendon, with some added antics to make it amusing.. Im already on NO for mets and washington, so i hope you wrong. I will continue to see if your luck keeps playing out tho!
    We both won yesterday. You won your play and I didn't go 0-4!
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  35. 06-05-13 01:29 PM #35
    HarHar00
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    My system for betting first innings besides looking at lineups to see who is sitting out, is when i look at the over and under lets say total is 8 and the individual team totals are 4 and 4.5. That Equals to 8.5. When this happens most of the time ive noticed i had lost in the past and they end up scoring in the first inning. But when the individual team totals added up are still less than the entire games total it tends to be a winning "no score" in the first inning. Hope that was clear enough.

    If u look at ur oakland/brewers game you lost that bet and if u had checked the team totals were both 4.5 and the game over and under was only 8!
    Points Awarded:

    trendon gave HarHar00 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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