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I actualy have a system now!
ok ok, so, betting all whilly nilly like an idiot, i somehow managed a profit lastnight but i definatly saw my mistakes. Did alot of research, and now use a system that factors in WAR, runs scored/runs against, and homefield advantage. Homefield advantage IS a real thing in baseball and needs to be factored in.
1st bet
Mets+220 2 units.
Goodluck to you and your system.
Aren't the Mets on the road tonight though.......you mentioned homefield is a real thing in baseball?
glitches on the system. Was doing all manual calculations, somehow LEFT OUT Wainrights WAR completely, which GREATLY increased the mets odds. I made a spreadsheat to make sure all the calculations are automated now.
updated percentage for mets to win: 33.15, which is still better than the implied odds of 31.25. Plus, Mets are up right now anyway, so looks like i got lucky by making such a glaring mistake.
2% is still a good edge though, so I prob would have bet on it anyway, just probably 1 unit instead of 2.
and yes, I did factor in home field advantage for the cardinals. Mets still come out better than odds given
3-1 mets with a runner on 3rd, nobody out
solid win.
2 units on the mets, +4.40
Night games:
2 units on TB to win 1.48
3 units on the giants to win 2.83
1 unit on LA to win .74
Thinking of playing 1 unit on the nationals, waiting to see how the lineup looks though, got quite a few players that could play or not.
ended up +4.23 units on the first night, Mets and giants came through for me, LA lost, and SOMEHOW the redsox came back with 1 out in the 9th to win it. Im from boston so i cant be too unhappy about it.
5/17 bets so far
2 BIG plays. 3 unites on the cubs, and a shocking RARE for me 4 units on the philies. Vegas has them at a 55% chance of winning, I and alot of other people/systems predict them way over that. I have them at 71%. also have 1 unit on cleveland
3 units on cubs
4 units on philies
1 unit on indians
tampa/orioles and and bluejays/yankees just arent worth betting on. Odds not in your favor.
Good luck with your system. Will definitely be paying close attention. If it hits don't give any details on how your system works. I have seen many systems hit good until people give away the details. May just be coincidence but just something I noticed over the years.
1 unit on astros
1 unit on airzona
1 unit on la dodgers
2 units on detriot
1 unit on minnesota
thanks for the tip. The system is pretty complicated so it would take forever for me to try to explain it unless I was with someone in person going step by step and showing examples and stuff. And besides, if I gave away my system, I couldnt start selling my picks after I hit it big a few seasons in a row
to finish out the night, I have:
2 units st loius
3 units Giants
1 unit on the angels.
tempted to put money down on the padres..... but there are just WAY to many variables out there. Werth and Ramos out for washington, forsyth, maybin, and grandal out for the padres, This new guy Smith pitching for the padres, just gonna sit this one out, but if i HAD to bet....... ide say Padres
looks like i have the potential for a BIG night
Lost on the mets earlier
philies, houston, arizona, dodgers, twins, cardinals, and giants are all ahead, Indians and detroit are tied. Feeling good
Nice start man, I just made a new thread today too with a quirky new martingale system, check it out!
maan, how did this change so fast!?!??!
ended the night with cubs, astros, dodgers, twins, giants, and angels all blowing it. ended the night LOSING 2.16 units. Still +2.07 units.
Today looks weird, quite a few non plays as there isnt value on either side, and the ones i did bet on are HUGE discrepancies on my odds projected and betting odds, so either its a no bet or 2+ unit bet
2 units on tampa
3 units on angels
2 units on astros
1 unit on brewers
2 units on tigers
2 units on oakland
got a 2 unit bet waiting on the mets that i havnt placed yet. its at +130, but considering public opinion is HEAVILY against them (mlb.com poll has them at only 20%), , im waiting to see if i can get +140 as i feel like the line could move to there to get even more value out of it.
did a little more research, not feeling good about the mets winning 3 games in a row, line went the opposite direction to +125. Decided to pull the trigger and change from a 2 unit bet to just a 1 unit bet. Passing on 6 games which is kind of alot with this system, just because those games are just no values in the lines at all. Only game left to make a choice on is giants/rockies.
Every one has a system. You just have to adjust and add filters as you go along. Good luck to you.
nice day yesterda. only lost on mets, tigers, giants. Won on tampa, angels, astros, brewers, and oakland.
+5.56 units on the day, +7.63 total (3 days so far). Really wish i was betting more, but im just not completely sold on the system. Im thinking of doing the entire season as a test run with low bets and go big next season, although this system DOES show some promise.
todays picks coming soon
a little late here if anyone wanted to follow my 1pm picks, but here goes, picks for the day:
1 unit yankees
2 units tampa
1 unit angels
1 unit oakland
1 unit giants
2 units marlins
3 units detriot
3.5 units mets
won every game so far today to go 5-0. yankees bet was a push because of the weather. only got 2 more games to go. up 10.94 units. even if giants and detroit both lose, im still up 6.94 units for the night, ide say a pretty damn solid day. Got 1 unit on the giants who are getting crushed right now, and 3 on detroit tonight.
Good stuff, been creeping your thread and I do like Det also tonight.
haha thanks mikmik. So glad detroit is on national broadcast tonight. Interesting game so far. I see the tigers hitting another homerun this game. Theyve driven a few balls pretty far, just a matter of time before one of those fly over the fence again
called it!
Spoke too soon bud. I hope Det can do something. I just saw in the service forum hondo is on Det. FML.
Very bold predicting a hr in Arlington. Tha hardly ever happens, lmaoOriginally Posted by thilonash
called it!
lol, well it did happen like 5 mins after i said it so.........
im actually enjoying this game quite a bit. intersting back and forth game, plus with how well i did with the other games, im not stressing at all if detroi loses.
It's all good your in a great run, I just hate when people start acting like a game is done with a 4 run lead in any game. But hope we cash.
Great as I wrote that Texas takes the lead.
jeeeeeeeesh, what happend to detroit?!?!? and I said "Called it" refering to the homerun, and not meaning that i called it that detroit is gonna win. I dont wanna come off as a cocky "i know it all this is a 100 percent lock now" type of guy. I was simply celebrating the homerun, not that the tigers had a lock on this game.
On a side note, seriously, what the hell happend here?!??! 11-7??!?! All I can say is that i am actually still REALLY enjoying this game as a fan even though detroit is losing. If detroit comes back and wins this, I think ide have to put this in top 5 most exciting games ive ever seen. So many ups and downs.
Sucks I'm working ot at the hospital and dumb hospital don't have espn.
that sucks. but chances are ...... eh. lol. Its def possible for detroit to tie it up in the 9th. down by 3 in an 11-8 game is possible
you win some you lose some. Still the best night for me so far. 4th night results= +6.94 units. 4 night total= +14.64 units.
oh, and guess what? GOT PICKS FOR TOMMOROW ALREADY
1 unit on indians EVEN
1 unit on philies -200
1 unit on mets +140
1 unit on astros +155
1 unit on padres +135
Havnt made a decision on the rays/bluejays or yankees/oriols game yet. All other games are a non bet.
Can you shine a little insight for me of why you picked mets, astros and padres because I was leaning more on the favoured teams
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