[EVPlus]

Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Red Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
My take: edge Baltimore

Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
My take: edge Baltimore

Orioles are 2-7 in their last 9 games following a win.
Red Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 games following a loss.
My take: no edge

Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 Thursday games.
Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 Thursday games.
My take: edge Baltimore

Orioles are 22-19 as road do of +100 to +125
Red Sox are 17-16 as home faves of -100 to -125
My take: no edge

Road team is 4-1 in Joyces last 5 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.
Home team is 21-8 in Joyces last 29 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
My take: maybe a small edge to Red Sox

Orioles are 5-17 in their last 22 games with Joyce behind home plate.
Red Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 games with Joyce behind home plate.
My take: edge to Red Sox

As for Orioles starter Tillman, the trends are mostly positive:
Orioles are 4-0 in Tillmans last 4 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Orioles are 4-0 in Tillmans last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Orioles are 7-1 in Tillmans last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Orioles are 6-1 in Tillmans last 7 starts as an underdog.
Orioles are 4-1 in Tillmans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Orioles are 4-1 in Tillmans last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 4-1 in Tillmans last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Orioles are 6-2 in Tillmans last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Orioles are 5-2 in Tillmans last 7 road starts.
Orioles are 5-2 in Tillmans last 7 starts on grass.

There are some blemishes for Tillman:
Orioles are 8-17 in Tillmans last 25 starts with 4 days of rest.
Orioles are 1-4 in Tillmans last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Orioles are 0-4 in Tillmans last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

As for Red Sox starter Aceves, there are not much trends on him. We should factor in that he has not started since June of 2011. That's a long time since he had to adapt to the difference between starting and working as a reliever.

So we have Tillman, who wants to make amends for giving up 5 earned runs in 3 innings. And we have Aceves, who I'm certain will want to prove himself. The decision comes down to this (for me anyway): Will Tillman bounce back? If he does, he should keep it close. Aceves can crumble under the pressure or surprise us all. It's Tillman that I'm a little more focused on.

Furthermore, Boston broke its long-standing sell out record yesterday. And they rewarded their fans by losing. This is not the way to get the hometown crowd on your side. A lack of energy from the home crowd can diminish the home field advantage.

Cappers who wrote off Baltimore's 2012 season as fluke are being proved wrong so far. I suppose you can make the argument that Baltimore clearly wants to establish itself against the likes of the Yankees (who they face tomorrow) and Boston.

I would actually like Baltimore better had they lost last night as this would make them hungrier. Nevertheless, I think there is enough value on backing them tonight.

[sbfk]

good insight... on this with you

[ebelisle22]

Baltimore. Great write up