[jellobiafra]

I guess I'll get this started since nobody else is around yet...


I'm still not feeling any unders. I don't know what it is, but I've lost the motivation I had to cap those exclusively. I'm probably going to regret it and go back to it eventually, but I'm just getting really bored with only looking for unders and then rooting for teams to not score at all. And I'm not doing this to bore the shit out of myself. In fact, I'm doing it to have fun, so here's what I'm playing today:


FLA +105

Johnson is a much better pitcher than Tallet and FLA owns TOR. False favorite, imo.

CWS +111

Brew Crew has struggled vs lefties lately and there aren't many better than Buerhle. I'll take the better starting pitcher (vs Looper) getting + odds every single time it's offered (see above).

CIN -116

Joey Cueto is the shit. Simple as that. I don't think the Reds get swept by what's turning out to be an average Royals squad. And I definitely don't think they get swept with Cueto on the mound vs Bannister.



Good luck everybody!


Oh yeah...

I'm also playing UNC +135 (great value for the 2nd best starting pitcher in CBB) and anything CK and SexyMit put up for WNBA. They swept the board yesterday. Free money folks. Free money.

[macadams]

Since ATL plays at Turner field where fly balls come to die, I have put more stock in their rd numbers than the totals. When you do that, their numbers start to look a little better, with five players 900+ OPS. Lowe is a better pitcher than Kawakami, and he also knows the park from having pitched there as a member of the Boston Red Sox (he usually did well there: .271 BA against and 1 HR surrendered in 16 games and 177 AB with a 2.76 ERA). He was there recently enough for him to realize he gots to go to his GB inducing stuff, can't pitch at Camden the way you would at Turner, but Lowe has proven in his career he can get the grounder. On the other hand it's sufficiently long ago that the likes of Markakis, Jones, Reimold and of course Weiters haven't seen him. Lowe off to a solid start and the team gets up for him too, seven wins so far.
Bergesen has ok numbers, but he is still a rookie. So far, Bergesen has relied on timely strikeouts, but the Braves strike out well below league average. His reputation is so far also being built largely on night games, in the admittedly small sample size of a meagre three games daytime (v. Texas, Toronto and the Nationals) and seven at night the differences are there: BA .348/.254, and slugging: .609/.358.
I was on the O's yesterday because I thought they would have a pitching advantage, today I go the other way for the same reason.
This could be a tight one though, because ATL is susceptible to stink stretches offensively. ATL with a small edge in close games too.
Booked: Two units on ATL @ 1.86
________________________________________ __ _
June record: -1.68 units

[jellobiafra]

I just added:


ATL -121.

I think it's more than a fair price for Lowe in the rubber game against an inferior opponent. And I feel like spreading some money around after going 7 for 8 on all my plays yesterday (including WNBA with a 3 team teaser to boot). Going for the kill today...




EDIT:

Mac that's funny. I was adding that play as you were posting the above. Good to see you on it as well.

[macadams]

I like the Cueto bet, and you also got Johan in the Bronx @ + $. Mets will be playing with the mentality of a team going for the sweep, even though that one game slipped from them behind the E.

[jellobiafra]

The only thing that made me hesitant to add ATL originally is the probability of McCann not being in the lineup - being that he's a catcher and it's a day game after a night. B-Mac is crucial as is any team's cleanup hitter. That being said, Bobby bucks the trend quite often with Mac on day games after night because Mac is a beast and he's young and he seems to be able to handle it. Plus there's an off day tomorrow so I think he plays.

[jellobiafra]

I like the Cueto bet, and you also got Johan in the Bronx @ + $. Mets will be playing with the mentality of a team going for the sweep, even though that one game slipped from them behind the E.

This was originally a play for me.... something in my gut said stay away. I don't like the line or the movement here. Just an instinct that says....fishy.

Speaking of lines and movement I just checked and saw that I could get ATL at -115 on BetJam 5 minutes after I booked them at -121. That's not exactly ideal.

[macadams]

Jello, you're right. Would like to see some support, I agree, we just will have to hope a lot of people going off of the wrong set of numbers. ATL 4-1 in interleague play, traditionally do well at Camden. I just don't see it turning around for A.J today, isn't he just being exposed as a guy who pitched real well for a not-so-great team? Leveraged situations don't seem to agree with him, or am I just perceiving this because of the "+" in the ML?

[jellobiafra]

Mac, I'm satisfied with the pick. I think the Braves will win the game. I'm just not happy that I paid more than I needed to. I've learned from some really sharp people on this site that a big part of winning in the long run is beating the closing number. In fact some guys way sharper than I'll ever be will tell you it's the only way to win at this in the long run. Maybe the number will move back in our favor, but my initial reaction is that it's not a good omen to see it move against you at all....

I see CK has decided to Donkey Kong us with a thread of his own so I'm moving over there now. Have to defer to the man, the myth, the legend....