The Mets should have a big enough advantage to take them on the run line tonight when they host the Cardinals in New York.
The Mets enter into this postseason contest having won eight straight, regular and postseason combined. The Cardinals have lost 24 of their last 33 games. In their last 11 night games, the Cardinals are 3-8.
Tom Glavine goes to the mound for the Mets in great current form, has had a great history in this series, and is 18-6 in 35 lifetime starts against the Cardinals with a 3.61 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He's faced the Redbirds twice in the last two seasons, allowing just three earned runs in 13 IP. Glavine has been outstanding at home in the Big Apple, as is evident by a 9-3 SU record to go along with a miniscule 2.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22. He has allowed just 31 earned runs in 103 innings of work.
Jeff Weaver, his pitching opponent, has been horrible pitching inside Shea in the past as the righty has allowed 21 ER in 31 IP for a 6.10 ERA. Weaver last pitched in New York on August 22, and the Mets got to him for five runs in just five innings. Those numbers are a result of a .669 slugging percentage that lefties have against Weaver, and the Mets are able to post six southpaws in their line up.
Final Notes & Trends: New York is 9-3 in their last 12 home playoff games. The Mets have won four of six meetings this season with the Cardinals, with all three games played at Shea Stadium going the way of the Mets. The Mets are 25-8 in games started by Glavine this season, including 13-3 at Shea Stadium. The Mets are 16-2 at home with Glavine on the hill with a total of 8½-10 runs and 13-2 when Glavine starts and the team are off a win. St Louis is 2-13 SU as an underdog of +125 to +175, and 24-34 against southpaws this season.
Bottom line: The Mets have the bases covered in this one as they have the better starter, better offense and a better bullpen. It all points to a Mets victory in Game 1.
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Alex Smart: Mets -1½ vs. Cardinals
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