I didn't find it surprising that the Los Angeles Dodgers opened up as solid road favorites against the Miami Marlins when I started handicapping this game on Saturday morning - but now I believe they should be even higher:
- Marlins SP Ricky Nolasco has a 5.36 career ERA in August, his highest of any month
- Nolasco's shortest-ever start came with umpire Mark Carlson behind home plate, giving up nine earned runs in a 14-3 home loss to the San Diego Padres on 7/20/11 (1.1 IP, 9 ER)
- Nolasco is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers
- Dodgers SP Joe Blanton's 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 36 career August starts, quite a contrast from Nolasco
- Blanton has limited Jose Reyes to a .194 average in 31 career at-bats against him, been one of the hottest hitters in baseball
- Nolasco is in terrible form, suffering through a career-long, five-game losing streak (7.16 ERA)
As long as the usual suspects are in the Dodgers lineup - this is a green-light situation to back a team that's played it's best baseball on Saturdays this year (14-4 record)