1. 07-15-12 04:36 PM #1
    MagicDiceFlow
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    MagicDiceFlow's Strong Play on the CARDINALS tonight .......here's why:

    Johnny Cueto was pulled from the Reds lineup today and I believe this will have a dramatic effect on the outcome and here's why. Current Red's starter Homer Bailey has been one of baseball's jeckyll & hyde pitchers, solid at times but certified zippo lighter on other occasions. The one strong factor I see here which supports us taking the Cards is Bailey's form after he returns from a long road trip.


    In Bailey's last eight starts, every time he returns home from a road start, he immediately gives up a gas can outing. He gave up 6 runs in only three innings at home vs Pittsburgh following his road trip, and 4 runs in five innings vs the Twins after that road trip. Bailey's last two starts were on a grueling west coast swing and the same situation presents itself tonight against the Cards. On top of that, you'll notice that Bailey is a very unstable pitcher at Great American Ball Park overall this year. He's sporting a dreadful 5.86 ERA this year at home.


    On the offensive front, an important factor to examine is Joey Votto's recent performance at the plate. Votto hasnt been his normal dominant self since his knee inflammation injury. For the last two months, Votto
    looked like arguably the best hitter in all of baseball. Lately, he's been in a slump with no home runs and only 5 hits and 1 rbi in his last 25 at bats. This may or may not come into play tonight BUT it's an important factor to consider if you plan on backing the Reds tonight.


    Westbrook has been steady his last six starts. What's more impressive though is his ERA away from Busch stadium, a very solid 2.94 in 52 innings of work on the road.


    Against any other team Bailey might be able to escape with a win but the Cards are stacked with too many hitters tonight. Expect them to score a big win against the Reds. Oddsmakers are holding steady on giving the Reds as slight favorites. However, I believe they are looking at Bailey's last solid two starts which were both on the road. They are overlooking how Bailey performs on a return road trip. This gives us an excellent opportunity to score a big win on the CARDS.


    Best of Luck!




    -------------------ST LOUIS CARDINALS -101 -------------------------






    Wager Type : Money Line
    Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 1,000.00 / 990.10(USD)
    Accepted : 7/15/2012 2:22PM - PST


    Sport / Period : MLB Baseball / Game
    Selection : St Louis Cardinals
    Time : 7/15/2012 5:05:01PM - (PST)
    Line : -101
    Pitchers : J. Westbrook - R - Must Pitch / H. BAILEY - R - Must Pitch
    Game Notes : Cincinnati - H. Bailey for J. Cueto - Overnight Change.
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  2. 07-15-12 04:38 PM #2
    a4u2fear
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  3. 07-15-12 04:42 PM #3
    AceKingHigh
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    MLB, Baseball
    St. Louis Cardinals 15-July-2012 5:05 PM PST
    Money Line for Game 2.040
    J. Westbrook must start H BAILEY must start
    Risking 116.44 to Win 121.10 USD
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  4. 07-15-12 04:45 PM #4
    No coincidences
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    Makes sense on paper MDF. Good luck. Just can't see backing Westbrook in this spot, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this bet cashes with ease.
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  5. 07-15-12 04:45 PM #5
    PuckIt
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    They are +$$$ right now, any idea why the line is moving the other way?
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  6. 07-15-12 04:51 PM #6
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by PuckIt View Post
    They are +$$$ right now, any idea why the line is moving the other way?
    Cards are posting as -104 right now at Heritage. Reds were -115 when Bailey was confirmed as the starter earlier today. It's still 2 hours away from start and I don't read much into these line moves since starting lineup is confirmed. Again , I truly believe Reds bettors are putting too much stock into Bailey's last two starts....totally different situation here at Great American Park.

    I don't read much into line moves in baseball. In football, basketball, and tennis ....line moves can give you an edge. In baseball, very minimal if any edge once you have the hitting lineups confirmed. Most of the times putting too much weight into line moves in baseball can disrupt your capping flow and put you on the wrong end.

    Good Luck though.
    Last edited by MagicDiceFlow; 07-15-12 at 05:07 PM.
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  7. 07-15-12 05:07 PM #7
    Hectorcist
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    Last two wins came against at the time a struggling Dodger offense and the Padres. Cards roll today.
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  8. 07-15-12 05:12 PM #8
    Vinnie Paz
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    Alright boys
    Need some late night action
    Cards +103
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  9. 07-15-12 05:16 PM #9
    drew2
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    thanks for the pick magic
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  10. 07-15-12 05:17 PM #10
    ParlayininHTown
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    MDF ... Cardinals TT over 4 (-120)?

    I know it's laying a little more juice, but this would provide protection against a bad outing from Westbrook. If the biggest angle is Bailey getting crushed, over 4 seems like another great play.
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  11. 07-15-12 05:23 PM #11
    Semper Fidelis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ParlayininHTown View Post
    MDF ... Cardinals TT over 4 (-120)?

    I know it's laying a little more juice, but this would provide protection against a bad outing from Westbrook. If the biggest angle is Bailey getting crushed, over 4 seems like another great play.
    That's what I was thinking, or either cards first 5 possibly? Like sportsguy said, we all know we can't trust that cards bullpen as inconsistent as they are.
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  12. 07-15-12 05:25 PM #12
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by ParlayininHTown View Post
    MDF ... Cardinals TT over 4 (-120)?

    I know it's laying a little more juice, but this would provide protection against a bad outing from Westbrook. If the biggest angle is Bailey getting crushed, over 4 seems like another great play.
    Over 4 TT is a good play. I like the + money or even money odds currently on the Cards but Over 4 is not a bad play at all.
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  13. 07-15-12 05:36 PM #13
    EVPlus
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    Nice write up and thanks again for posting your plays. I'm passing on this because my two filter plays hit so I'll bow out for the day.

    Another reason is I spent all morning yesterday capping today's Cards/Reds game with the expectation that Cueto will start. Once that changed, my frustration at spending all morning capping and watching the afternoon game with Lhose/Leake may cloud my thinking. I always walk away when I suspect that I'm emotionally involved in a game.

    For anyone interested, here are some recent trends that you may or may not find interesting. BOL and I'll be cheering for a Cards win.

    Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
    Reds are 1-4 in Baileys last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
    EDGE: STL

    Cardinals are 4-1 in Westbrooks last 5 Sunday starts.
    Cardinals are 4-1 in Westbrooks last 5 starts.
    Reds are 0-4 in Baileys last 4 home starts.
    Reds are 1-4 in Baileys last 5 starts as a favorite.
    EDGE: STL

    Cardinals are 5-2 in Westbrooks last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
    Reds are 14-6 in Baileys last 20 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
    EDGE: DEBATABLE

    Road team is 4-1 in Wests last 5 Sunday games behind home plate.
    Road team is 4-1 in Wests last 5 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
    Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 Sunday games with West behind home plate.
    Reds are 19-7 in their last 26 games with West behind home plate.
    EDGE: DEBATABLE

    Reds are 2-8 in Baileys last 10 starts vs. Cardinals.
    EDGE: STL
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  14. 07-15-12 05:55 PM #14
    MagicDiceFlow
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    ^^^^^^^^^ nice trends there EV ^^^^^^^^^

    The one that holds most weight to me is the 0-4 in Bailey's last 4 home starts. There are some pitchers that due to the kind of stuff they have and location, it just doesn't mesh well with their home stadiums. I think Bailey's spot tonight continues that trend.
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  15. 07-15-12 06:06 PM #15
    hundredbombs
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    In his first start of the year Bailey faced the Cards at home and gave up 4 runs (3 HR's) in 5.2 innings.

    His last two home starts against MIN and MIL he gave up 5 runs a piece.

    He's also given up 12 HR's at home this year.
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  16. 07-15-12 06:18 PM #16
    SBRMAN23
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    Let's get this fuccing money Red bulls got me for a good amount and didn't add ur early play Bol lets do it $500 at -102
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  17. 07-15-12 06:33 PM #17
    ColdBeerHere
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    on the Cards too....Let's cash this fellas

    what does anyone think of total hits/runs/errors for the first inning at o3 -105 ?
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  18. 07-15-12 06:38 PM #18
    BigPage25
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    I'm on the cardinals as well good luck everyone
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  19. 07-15-12 06:40 PM #19
    hundredbombs
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColdBeerHere View Post
    on the Cards too....Let's cash this fellas

    what does anyone think of total hits/runs/errors for the first inning at o3 -105 ?
    I was very tempted to take that, but I decided to pass.
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  20. 07-15-12 06:41 PM #20
    Bengals28
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    On cards as well. Kind of scared, seems like everyone's on them.
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  21. 07-15-12 06:44 PM #21
    Hectorcist
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    Seems like everyone's on them yet in my book, juice for cards in last hour has gone from Even to -110 back to Even. Looks like the public is on the Reds today.
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  22. 07-15-12 07:00 PM #22
    tevari
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    Have a 4 spot on STL. Let's cash this, MDF.
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  23. 07-15-12 07:01 PM #23
    MexicanStallion
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    Sorry can't back the Cards, Reds fan here. No action on the game though.
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  24. 07-15-12 07:07 PM #24
    ColdBeerHere
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    Quote Originally Posted by hundredbombs View Post
    I was very tempted to take that, but I decided to pass.
    damn i decided to make a last minute play on that and 5dimes removed their prop bets with 5 minutes to go before first pitch

    We'll see what happens....I just got a feeling we're gonna see some runs this game....I also took the over 9 -120
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  25. 07-15-12 08:42 PM #25
    SBRMAN23
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    Would of been great if ppl were on base for Yadys hr but thst ties it and now to takeover
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  26. 07-15-12 09:48 PM #26
    PMcG012
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    Way to blow it with two guys on base. The Reds made no mistake. Better luck next time.
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  27. 07-15-12 09:49 PM #27
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Old man Rolen with the big hit of all people. Congrats Cincy backers, Reds played a good game.
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  28. 07-15-12 09:49 PM #28
    Galego
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    Tomorrow is a new day!!!
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  29. 07-15-12 09:52 PM #29
    bighawk12
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    Figured it was a done deal when cards could'nt do nothing with 2 on no outs.
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  30. 07-15-12 09:55 PM #30
    nrok2118
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    Quote Originally Posted by bighawk12 View Post
    Figured it was a done deal when cards could'nt do nothing with 2 on no outs.

    I know its kinda blasphemes, but I would have liked to see berkmann bunt them over in that spot.
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  31. 07-15-12 10:42 PM #31
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Old man Rolen with the big hit of all people. Congrats Cincy backers, Reds played a good game.

    Man Sundays are horrible for me. i tried cappin this game to and came up with the cards at the right value. Just un lucky today
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  32. 07-15-12 10:47 PM #32
    MexicanStallion
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    Sorry man, Reds are hot. I"m a little disappointed I laid off today. Bounce back with the next play.
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  33. 07-15-12 11:02 PM #33
    DoctorPhil
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    I'm down quite huge tailing MDF, but I still got some cash reserves in the bank.

    I feel the tide shifting and we will pound the books! hopefully soon!

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  34. 07-16-12 12:22 AM #34
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoctorPhil View Post
    I'm down quite huge tailing MDF, but I still got some cash reserves in the bank.

    I feel the tide shifting and we will pound the books! hopefully soon!


    Yankees -1.5 tommorow get on it. i just did about an hour of cappin on it alone +100 for-1.5 yankees win big tommorow
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  35. 07-16-12 12:24 AM #35
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexicanStallion View Post
    Sorry man, Reds are hot. I"m a little disappointed I laid off today. Bounce back with the next play.
    ya number 1 rule dont fade teams on long winning streaks.
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