[Snowball]

Pirates still don't get any respect.
They are also +335 to win the NL Central.

[stevenash]

Right hand column is the chance (in percent) of each NL team making the playoffs

National League
EAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10	POFF
Washington	49	34	.590	-	24-16	25-18	348	290	+58	Lost 1	6-4	78.2
Atlanta	46	39	.541	4	20-22	26-17	391	357	+34	Won 4	6-4	53.3
NY Mets	46	40	.535	4.5	26-20	20-20	394	374	+20	Lost 1	6-4	41.2
Miami	41	44	.482	9	22-22	19-22	334	390	-56	Lost 2	6-4	2.0
Philadelphia	37	50	.425	14	17-27	20-23	368	396	-28	Lost 4	1-9	0.7
CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10	POFF
Pittsburgh	48	37	.565	-	29-14	19-23	345	313	+32	Won 2	8-2	72.4
Cincinnati	47	38	.553	1	23-16	24-22	358	316	+42	Won 3	6-4	64.3
St. Louis	46	40	.535	2.5	23-20	23-20	426	356	+70	Won 2	6-4	60.4
Milwaukee	40	45	.471	8	22-21	18-24	384	393	-9	Won 1	6-4	6.7
Chicago Cubs	33	52	.388	15	19-20	14-32	317	386	-69	Won 1	7-3	0.1
Houston	33	53	.384	15.5	24-21	9-32	344	416	-72	Lost 1	1-9	0.1
WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10	POFF
San Francisco	46	40	.535	.5	26-16	20-24	338	346	-8	Lost 2	3-7	51.3
LA Dodgers	47	40	.540	-	27-16	20-24	332	322	+10	Lost 3	4-6	43.5
Arizona	42	43	.494	4	23-21	19-22	375	365	+10	Won 3	4-6	25.3
Colorado	33	52	.388	13	18-25	15-27	413	479	-66	Won 1	4-6	0.4
San Diego	34	53	.391	13	17-27	17-26	305	381	-76	Lost 3	6-4	0.2

[Snowball]

there is no such thing. no math can calculate a percentage chance
which does not exist. past results are not indicative of future performance.

[stevenash]

http://www.coolstandings.com/basebal...sp?sn=2012&i=1



coolstandings.com calculates exactly that, for EVERY team, EVERY day. The following "coolstats" are updated daily:

DIV	- % chance each team has of winning division
WC	- % chance each team has of winning the wild card
POFF	- % chance each team has of making the playoffs

A DIV of 50.0 means your team has a 50% chance of winning the division. A WCof 100.0 means you've got the wild card wrapped up. And a POFF of 0.0 means "wait till next year!"

How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers.

The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results. Pretty smart, huh? That's why we call this prediction mode "Smart mode".

Another method is to simply assume that any team has a 50-50 shot of beating any other team. You could flip a coin to decide who would win each game. This method isn't too realistic, but it usually gives Chicago teams a better shot at the division. For lack of a better term, we call this prediction mode "Dumb mode".


For the playoffs, we calculate a different set of coolstats:

WIN	- % chance each team has of winning series
PW	- projected number of wins
PL	- projected number of losses
EW	- expected number of wins
EL	- expected number of losses

The projected wins and losses are the most likely results given the predicted series winner actually wins the series. The expected wins and losses are the average results, no matter which team wins.

If you have any questions about either the playoffs or the regular season, check our FAQ page.

So keep track of your team, and check back with us daily to see how last night's scores changed the playoff landscape!

[Snowball]

i guess it's a tool for setting lines, but i don't see any
use for it. if you see a specific use for it from our perspective
and put money on it, let us know.

[stevenash]

^
Actually that site I linked is pretty good. Not intrade good, but pretty accurate.

You turned me on to this future bet, I consulted a couple of websites I refer to, and said to myself "Snowball is on to something here"
So I banged in 100 +115 on the Pirates.

Looks like we are getting + money on a better than even chance.

Good eye

[Snowball]

people just don't trust them yet.
St Louis and Cincy are the pedigrees.
Pitt is the Mutt.
I just booked some also. I don't think the Pirates will let down
all the excited fans who've waited a long time for something to feel excited about.
But I would not take them to win the division, too iffy.

[thebestthereis]

If its a game of the year play it has a shot, if it is floundering flipping coin guess it has no chance on planet earth. Good luck!

[JMUplayer]

Pirates don't seem willing to make a move or trade some of their young guys.... that in itself is enought to fade because i know other teams will make the move

[EBDOG]

All I see is expected w/l, but I don't see projected w/l

[dg84]

I also think the Pirates don't fade this year. They only have 22 games left against the Reds, Cards, Braves, Nats, Giants & LAD, but 32 games against the Cubs, Stros, Padres & Rockies left. There's even rumors that they may try for Upton, but I think Quentin is a better fit because they need a veteran presence & he will cost much less in prospects to acquire, not to mention his home stats at Petco suck. .318/.636./.477 on the road.

[detroitlionsfan]

i like the playoff bet but cincy/stlouis win the div

[lunchbawks]

they cant win on the road

[stevenash]

they cant win on the road

Neither can the Giants.
19-23 isn't God awful on the road, almost .500
What's the old adage? Win 2 out of 3 at home, Pirates are doing just that (29-14) and play .500 on the road gets you to October.
Pirates are doing pretty much just that.

James McDonald's numbers are off the chart outstanding.
AJ is thriving in a small market.
They have a stud closer in Hanrahan.
Jason Grilli is the best non closing reliever in the NL. His numbers are on another planet. 14+ K's per nine, 0.95 WH/IP ratio, 1.87 ERA, 21 holds.........
McCutchen is having an MVP season, Walker is solid at second, Alvarez, it took him 3 years, but he's living up to his potential finally.

Pirates have enough to get to the playoffs this season.