[morningmoney]

Why should we take particular note to this game? Because as we all know, this is Timmay and not Tim Lincecum.

To say Timmay is having an off-year would be an understatement. His earned run avg of 5.83 is 2nd worst in the league. The Giants are 2-10 when Lincecum starts and 31-15 when Zito, Cain, Bum or Vogelsong start. In fact, one of the more interesting storylines in baseball this year (for me anyhow 'cause I'm a Giant hater) has been the Decline of the Freak. Last season he finished 3rd in Ks, 5th in ERA and 6th in Cy Young voting. Then this season happened. Wtf, right?

It seems dude's most obvious problem is that he's lost his velocity. According to fangraphs, Lincecum's avg fastball velocity dropped from 94 mph in 2008 to 92 last season to 90 this season. Most guys like to hit 96 or 97 on the gun but after a shitload of innings they all lose a little velocity. Then they make adjustments. A drop in mph can have a huge effect on a pitcher - a smaller difference between a fastball and an off-speed pitch and a smaller chance of getting away with a fat pitch means fewer pop-ups and more hits. Timmay is giving up more walks, more line drives and fewer ground balls. He's also having those 'meltdown innings' where he loses total control. In at least 5 starts this season he's given up 4 or more runs in a single inning showing little damage control. It seems the league has made it's adjustments to Lincecum and Timmay has yet to respond, making adjustments back.

Today, manchild faces the Texas Rangers, the highest scoring team in the major leagues. IMO, whether you take Texas FF, Texas TT or Tex ML, you're chances are pretty good. And it seems like Timmy's not going anywhere, either. He's healthy, he's got his spot in the rotation and the Giants need him and they wash his balls for him. He should be worth following. GL

[Squirrel Kokomo]

poor