[Ganchrow]

Check this article from mid-August:

http://www.denverpost.com/renck/ci_4209049

Think they've tweaked the humidor settings just a bit at Coors lately? The Washington series had totals of 15, 19, 14, and 22? And last night against San Fran, 28??

If they don't turn the humidor setting back to "high", one of the games in the upcoming Atlanta series will wind up being like 37-28 or something (with Atlanta probably winning). Really, if they don't turn it back up, all of the Atlanta games and all of the Dodgers games after that will be good over bets. The books probably won't suddenly tack on an extra 3 runs to Colorado home totals, but who knows.

We'll definitely be doing humidor research at the beginning of next season.

[moses millsap]

Any thoughts on today's total Ganch?

[Ganchrow]

Over. Although if you were going to bet the house to pay for that kidney transplant or to chase a year's worth of losses, I'd recommend waiting for the Friday or Saturday game.

Smoltz of course is capable of a shutout start under any circumstances, but has gotten hit more of late and his statistical likelihood of a dominant start is lower tonight than usual,. This would hold even if tonight's start weren't at Coors.

Kim also can be a shut-down guy if his stuff is working but that is also relatively unlikely.

Chipper Jones, who is day-to-day, might not be in the lineup due to a sore toe. Although unless it proves more serious than it had been earlier reported, it's likely he will play today because Atlanta is clinging to slim playoff hopes. It's not clear how much it will affect him - probably not all that much.

All in all, though, with the current line of 9½ +104, no question our pick is over.

Unless they are doing game-to-game or series-to-series humidor experiments, and send out more water-logged balls than they have been recently, it is very likely that 3 games in this series will go over, and likely that all 4 will.

[moses millsap]

Yeah, I like the matchup between Hudson and Fogg as the most likely to go over, even moreso than Davies and Francis. I'll see what happens tonight as they may indeed be doing game-to-game or series-to-series experiments.

On another topic, you know the pitch count for Harden today? Couldn't even find anything in the local sports page this morning. This may be a throwaway game for the A's.

[Ganchrow]

Pitch count of 60

[moses millsap]

Thanks Ganch.

[bigboydan]

I'm suprised more people didn't know about the humidor factor before the media really got ahold of it.

I remember watching something on this one on the local Denver local channels back in May. In the report they did an interview with Hurdle, and he did make mention of this humidor stuff. The reporter never pursued it though. Truth be told, even I didn't really catch it either til I read a post by Patrick McIrsh on another website in regards to the unders in coors this year.

[Ganchrow]

For the Thursday game, there is a strong wind reported blowing in, and the lineups don't look their strongest. Chipper Jones is out, and Tony Pena is at SS for Atlanta. We do still like the over at the current price (9½ +103), but only slightly, and certainly anywhere near so strongly as we expect to like the overs for the remainder of this series. Winds do change, and these are still decent lineups. If the balls really are dried out, that is a far more important factor. But if you're looking to bet the house to win next year's alimony payments, this isn't the game to do it with.

[EBone]

Memo to the Colorado Rockies organization:

Play with the heavy baseball or don't. One way or the other. The only way to have a true gambling advantage in totals at Coors is to know what the humidor settings are before each game is played. When organizations start changing the conditions of the game before the game, the great data that has been collected all season becomes worthless in my opinion.

Just make a decision and stick with it the entire season.



Note to the forum: I think a good angle to look at it from a data gathering perspective is how the Colorado starting pitchers have performed in road games compared to the games at home where the humidor was used at its "normal" extent. I say this because the baseball should be heavier using the humidor. Pitching a heavy baseball 100 times a game is bound to have an effect on starting pitchers as the season wears on.




E

[Ganchrow]

Tonight's over is looking real good. MLB.com reports a 9 MPH wind in from left, which is fine. The lineups have most of the solid hitters playing. Chipper Jones is out again but that's fine. If the balls are dry, this total will SAIL over 10. By the end of the 6th, Fogg will have given up at least 5 and Hudson will have given up at least 3. Then with the bad bullpens involved, there is value in the over.