2011 baseball thread ( 244-187 +51.21)
Rangers to win world series +500 risk 3
Dodgers to win world series +1000 risk 1 Cardinals to win world series +1400 risk 1
Brewers -147 risk 1.47
This is one hell of a bad run for the Cubs, 3-16 in their last 19 games, 6-21 on the road for the season and riding a 11 game losing streak on the road. They send out Ryan Dempster who is looking like he may reach the record for a cub pitchers winless streak set by Danny Jackson, Dempster hasnt won in 18 starts and is coming off a pretty rough outing giving up 6 runs, 6 hits and 4 walks in 4 innings against the Padres last Wednesday. Dempster may be showing some regression here as the 35 year old pitcher has really started to show some signs of slowing down in his last four starts after an incredible start to the year, 3 of his last four starts have not been impressive. Even if he pitches well, its doubtful he will get much run support on the road, the Cubs have scored 15 runs over the last 102 innings.
Gallardo is really starting to come around this season, he has had 6 quality starts in a row and is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 3 starts, he has had impressive numbers against the Cubs in his career (5-1 2.77 ERA) and has already beat them once this year. I would probably put a little more on this if the Brewers werent so banged up but I dont see how anyone can have much confidence wagering on the Cubs on the road. The Brewers are still missing Lucroy , hopefully Braun and Ramirez will play tonight but against this Cubs offense it may not matter.
I thought about the -1 runline here but the Brewers are pretty banged up, Dempster is still having a phenomenal year stat wise even though he has looked rough lately and the only redeeming stat I can find with the Cubs lately is they have not been losing by more than one run. 10 straight games where they havent lost by more than one run.The Cubs are 1-10 in their last 11 at Miller park.
Nationals -1 -109 risk 1.09
Nationals 1st 5 (-.5) -110 risk 1.10
The Mets are sending out Chris Young who has only pitched 44 innings in the last 2 years because of injuries. He had shoulder surgery and has some pretty decent numbers in a few rehab starts but he is 33 years old and this quite a lot of time off . He doesnt really have much speed on his fast ball but has had good strikeout numbers in the few innings he has pitched over the last few years , I am just hoping the Nationals get to him early. The Nationals havent looked as sharp as they did earlier in the years and are 1-4 in their last 5 but they are still one of the best home teams in baseball and Zimmerman is putting up much better numbers than his record indicates.
Reds -1 -106 risk 2.12
Reds/Pirates u 4 (1st 5) -115 risk 2.30
I watched that Red/Pitt. game last week and Bailey looked fantastic, throwing a complete game giving up 4 hits and only one run. Bailey is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his last 3 starts but he also facing another hot pitcher in AJ Burnett for the Pirates. Burnett hasnt giving up more than 2 earned runs in his last 5 starts and just beat Cincinnati going seven innings and giving up 2 hits and 1 run. Both teams are playing great ball, the Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 and the Pirates are now over .500 and are 7-2 in their last nine and are catching up to the Reds in the NL Central.
Great divisional game here and should be a fun game but runs should be at a premium in this one with Bailey and Burnett on the mound and I have had excellent results with unders and the Pirates, the under is 34-16-3 in their last 53 games.
Cardinals -1 -116 risk 1.16
I really didnt want to play this with Humber and Romero on the mound but Encarnacion is definitely out for the Jays and Humber settled down in his last start, giving up 2 runs and 4 hits in a 7-2 win against Tampa. The White Sox are 9-1 in their last 10, Rios and Beckham are putting up fantastic numbers and the Jays are struggling on the road and Romero has been getting hit in his last 2 starts. Rotoworld and sports options are saying Encarnacion is not playing tonight.
Miami -1 +110 risk 1
The Braves looked good against the Cardinals but they are still 3-9 in their last 12 and they are sending out a 36 year old pitcher to start tonight with Tim Hudson. I love Hudson, he is a great competitor but he isn't getting any younger and judging from alot of his stats he will continue to regress with age as this season wears on and he hasnt looked sharp in his last two starts. He has surprised me though every year and Sanchez hasnt exaclty been lighting it up lately, he had a good game against the Nats on Tuesday but was 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in his previous starts last month.
Miami is putting up incredible numbers, they are 23-9 since may 1st, 7-3 in their last 10 and very strong numbers at home.
Ramirez out for the Brewers but Braun starting. I was hoping both would play but this is the Chicago Cubs (6-21 on the road, 11 game losing streak on the road) the Brewers are facing.
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Tuesday Picks ( 229-216 +31.90)
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