[brahmabull117]

Few things to consider here why I love this play


1)The red sox don't win too many close games. If they win, it's generally going to be by 2+ runs. Out of their 28 wins so far, only 5 have been by 1 run. This means that if you just played the blind runline for all their games this year, you would be up a good number of units as they've won 23 out of 54 games by 2+ runs (a profitable number considering all the road games they've played where the runline was probably like + 180)


2)Boston is red hot, won 16 out of 23


3)Baltimore is very cold, losers of 11 of 14. Baltimore is also coming back to Earth. This team will be very profitable to fade I believe over the next 3 months as they regress to where they will likely finish (about an 85-95 loss team)


What scares me here is John lester has really struggled this season. I can see the Sox losing like a 8-6 kind of game but they should win this game and all they have to do is win by 2+ runs half the time and it's a very profitable line

[taxe91]

Love this play brahma, was already on it as soon as the odds come out as I except the public to push Lesters price towards -200. (I'm on the -1RL)

Im surprised you didnt mention the biggest advantage when backing Lester over the Orioles: Jon 'the oriole molester' Lester has a 14-0 record against Baltimore in 19 career starts. Hopefully he can keep it going.

One worrying thing though is that Hammel pitched at Fenway earlier this season and kept the Sox to 2 runs, but being able to face him a second time around will make a world of difference to the sox offense.

[pacocn]

I like the O's +142 better that 1.5 bet is a water moccassin.

[brahmabull117]

Love this play brahma, was already on it as soon as the odds come out as I except the public to push Lesters price towards -200. (I'm on the -1RL)

Im surprised you didnt mention the biggest advantage when backing Lester over the Orioles: Jon 'the oriole molester' Lester has a 14-0 record against Baltimore in 19 career starts. Hopefully he can keep it going.

One worrying thing though is that Hammel pitched at Fenway earlier this season and kept the Sox to 2 runs, but being able to face him a second time around will make a world of difference to the sox offense.

I don't know if I necessarily place a huge emphasis on a pitcher's past against a team anymore in cases like this. If a guy is not pitching with much confidence (Lester really hasn't all season), I don't know if facing a team he has dominated will make a big difference


With that being said, I totally agree with you. I think the Sox will take 2 out of 3 and maybe even outright sweep

[brahmabull117]

I like the O's +142 better that 1.5 bet is a water moccassin.

Anybody backing Baltimore from here on is a fool in my view. This team was projected to lose 90 games this year and there's no reason at all to think their early success is legitimate. They're due for some massive, massive regression to where they were expected to finish (you have already seen this with them losing 10 out of 13). I fully expect them to lose about 60-65% of their games the remaining portion of the season and this is a great spot here facing a red hot Boston team looking to gain ground in the division

[pacocn]

Anybody backing Baltimore from here on is a fool in my view. This team was projected to lose 90 games this year and there's no reason at all to think their early success is legitimate. They're due for some massive, massive regression to where they were expected to finish (you have already seen this with them losing 10 out of 13). I fully expect them to lose about 60-65% of their games the remaining portion of the season and this is a great spot here facing a red hot Boston team looking to gain ground in the division

I didn't say i was playing it, but if i had to choose, i would play the O's +142 over the Boston -1.5 just my personal preference, bol on your play. I like other plays much better so i will be passing on this game.

[pacocn]

The cubies at +135 with Dempster looks real tasty.
But, i think i will pass, got too many plays working.

[brahmabull117]

The cubies at +135 with Dempster looks real tasty.
But, i think i will pass, got too many plays working.

How many times do the cubs have to lose before people understand that they're never a good choice?

[pacocn]

Brahma i'll take the cubies and the +135 tomorrow for 10 betpoints.
I pay you 10 if brewers win and you pay me 14 if the Cubies win.
I will pay you 2 pts a day for 5 days if i lose. You in?

[crackerjack]

How many times do the cubs have to lose before people understand that they're never a good choice?

This. Marmol will single handedly fist you (sometimes with both hands)

[agendaman]

homer bailey is a much better bet /6-0 w/1.79era vs pitts. dempster ok. but winless but so is cliff lee /and gallardo is5-1 vs.cubs/tough call guys

[pacocn]

Brahma i'll take the cubies and the +135 tomorrow for 10 betpoints.
I pay you 10 if brewers win and you pay me 14 if the Cubies win.
I will pay you 2 pts a day for 5 days if i lose. You in?

Need an answer before the 1st pitch

[pacocn]

Brahma also I'll take the O's and take 10 pts if the O's
cover the 1.5 if not i will pay you 14 pts if Red sox win by more
than 1.5. Let me know prior to 1st pitch.

[pacocn]

Proposed betpoints. bets I'll take Dempster +135 and
Orioles +1.5. Lets do this.

[JMobile]

Brahma doesn't bet in real life, CN. He's just here to post and increase bandwidth. In other words, Brahma has already denied this challenge.

[pacocn]

Brahma doesn't bet in real life, CN. He's just here to post and increase bandwidth. In other words, Brahma has already denied this challenge.

Just trying to get a gage on how "fantastic" that -1.5 +140 really is?

[brahmabull117]

Need an answer before the 1st pitch

I don't give a f*ck about betpoints, don't waste my time with that nonsense

homer bailey is a much better bet /6-0 w/1.79era vs pitts. dempster ok. but winless but so is cliff lee /and gallardo is5-1 vs.cubs/tough call guys

Bailey is a fraud though, he is very unlikely to continue his current stats

[jetsjets1028]

yes watch sox win tues-friday so when i go sat can lose on me again

[Madison]

One warning here ... Lester is all or nothing. If his cutter isn't biting to righties he can and will give TONS of runs. If he's on you're probably gonna get 7 innings and 1-3 runs otherwise lookout. GL

[brahmabull117]

One warning here ... Lester is all or nothing. If his cutter isn't biting to righties he can and will give TONS of runs. If he's on you're probably gonna get 7 innings and 1-3 runs otherwise lookout. GL

I think even if Lester goes 6 and gives up 4 runs (a mediocre start), sox should still score 6-8 runs

[morningmoney]

Lester had that complete game vs Seattle a while ago but he's given up 15 runs over 16 2/3 in his last 3 starts. He was sucky even before that Seattle game getting only 1 win in 6 starts. Jason Hammel is good for about 4 runs imo. These guys will probably give up the 8.5 runs all by them selves before getting yanked in the 6th.

[brahmabull117]

Lester had that complete game vs Seattle a while ago but he's given up 15 runs over 16 2/3 in his last 3 starts. He was sucky even before that Seattle game getting only 1 win in 6 starts. Jason Hammel is good for about 4 runs imo. These guys will probably give up the 8.5 runs all by them selves before getting yanked in the 6th.

I don't play totals in baseball, but this is a great choice for those who do. I think sox win like 9-4

[in:extremis]

I agree with your analysis and think the Sox are a good chance here, -1.5 is a good bet.

Baltimore are due to go on a slide and if Lester pitches like he can do, this is an easy win for the Sox.

Today I am also going with the Twins / Royals over 8.5, and small parlays including the Phillies and Diamondbacks.

Good luck with this bet.

[brahmabull117]

I agree with your analysis and think the Sox are a good chance here, -1.5 is a good bet.

Baltimore are due to go on a slide and if Lester pitches like he can do, this is an easy win for the Sox.

Today I am also going with the Twins / Royals over 8.5, and small parlays including the Phillies and Diamondbacks.

Good luck with this bet.

Baltimore's been slumping for a while, losing 10 out of 13. I think they'll continue to lose at about a 65-70% rate for a while until their record returns to about what we expected

[kramerthekid]

Brahma what are your plays tonight? Looking for something good to tail been I've been ice cold of lately.

[mrtsummit]

Boston TT over 4.5

[brahmabull117]

Brahma what are your plays tonight? Looking for something good to tail been I've been ice cold of lately.

I've been hot with baseball going 3-0 last 3 days, but I don't see a lot I like except for this play


The only other one I would really consider would be maybe San Francisco - 115 (Padres Struggling, Timmy L. owns the padres, giants playing well) and Oakland/Texas over 7.5 (I usually hate totals but this is hard to pass up with how bad the A's pitcher is and how mediocre Derek Holland is)

[brahmabull117]

Boston TT over 4.5

excellent play, the sox average 5.5 runs a game at home anyways

[mp5070]

[JMobile]

I've been hot with baseball going 3-0 last 3 days, but I don't see a lot I like except for this play


The only other one I would really consider would be maybe San Francisco - 115 (Padres Struggling, Timmy L. owns the padres, giants playing well) and Oakland/Texas over 7.5 (I usually hate totals but this is hard to pass up with how bad the A's pitcher is and how mediocre Derek Holland is)

There is no proof that Dave has been "hot" the last days. He deleted his plays on his spreadsheet.

I don't play totals in baseball, but this is a great choice for those who do. I think sox win like 9-4

I think even if Lester goes 6 and gives up 4 runs (a mediocre start), sox should still score 6-8 runs

Lets hope you're right...

[Donkeys2012]

There is no proof that Dave has been "hot" the last days. He deleted his plays on his spreadsheet.

Exactly hes a clown.

[ThaTopMoron]

Balty up 2-0...how can this be? Boston better start scoring!

[taxe91]

sox offense seems to just be going through the motions at the moment unfortunately. lot of 3 ball counts not being converted, swinging at balls out of the zone. eerily similar to what the rangers did yesterday. the ump's strike zone seems inconsistent too

lester has looked sharp though that 2 run inning was quite surprising.

edit: lol just as i say that the 1st base ump blows a call too

[brahmabull117]

Lester had that complete game vs Seattle a while ago but he's given up 15 runs over 16 2/3 in his last 3 starts. He was sucky even before that Seattle game getting only 1 win in 6 starts. Jason Hammel is good for about 4 runs imo. These guys will probably give up the 8.5 runs all by them selves before getting yanked in the 6th.

Great call


Bad call on my part, I didn't pay enough attention to Lester's putrid results recently. It's just too much pressure to expect an offense to score 8 or 9 runs every game

[taxe91]

So Lester's undefeated streak will extend to 20 starts now. Atchisons in line for the loss in this one